The rumor has nothing to do, so as to exercise the psychological endurance of investors.
On February 21, a snowball user shouted that “Tencent will be hammered”, which was widely forwarded and discussed. The fluctuation of market sentiment followed. Tencent’s share price fell by more than 5%, and its market value evaporated HK $236.2 billion. The evaporation of one-day market value even exceeded that of meituan, which fell 15% last Friday
Hong Kong stocks Internet technology stocks fell, Kwai fell more than 7%, beep fell more than 9%.
A “heavy hammer” rumor, in addition to hitting Tencent, has also attracted many well-known enterprises, including listed companies operating game business, such as BiliBili and heart company, as well as meta, the “first stock of yuancosmos” whose market value has just been surpassed by Tencent on the other side of the ocean. It has a great impact on the business from game to yuancosmos.
What kind of netizens’ speeches have affected the nerves of the trillion market? How did Tencent’s share price change from a slight shock to a sharp drop of 100 billion? After the market closed, Tencent’s decline was fixed, and the excitement returned to calm. After integrating the clues of all parties, what experience and lessons have we learned?
snowball startled the rumor of “big hammer enough to subvert Tencent”
It originated from the speech of a user with ID of “Crazy Panda 233” in snowball. The netizen said: “after confirmed by Tencent insiders, Tencent was hammered again, and it was a heavy hammer, which was enough to overturn Tencent’s sledgehammer, and said that the news was about to come out.”
After the news release, a large number of users reprinted and spread. Compared with the floating situation in the morning, Tencent showed an obvious downward trend in the afternoon. However, after the market closes, search for the posting user and show that this user does not exist.
In this regard, Zhang Jun, Tencent’s public relations director, spoke to the circle of friends, saying that the penetration of rumors is often unimaginable. It also said that “there were many versions of rumors in one afternoon”.
Although the snowball user “Crazy Panda 233” has “found no such person”, the Internet still has a memory. According to the screenshot of the microblog account “an employee of Tencent”, this snowball user has repeatedly published relevant contents that are bearish on Tencent since December 2021, and said that he would “replenish his position when Tencent falls to 200 years later.”
netizens solved the mystery enthusiastically, and CITIC chief clarified
In the afternoon, when Tencent’s share price fell repeatedly, Wang guanran, chief analyst of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) media, quickly blasted the social network by summarizing the regulation of the game industry.
In this analysis, Wang guanran said: today, the regulatory authorities and the game industry have conducted regulatory thinking guidance, involving many contents. We roughly sorted out several aspects: first, continue to strengthen the prevention of addiction and do not relax, and the protection of teenagers is the core; Second, all reviews have experts in the corresponding cultural field; Third, prohibit money first and compare consumption. Strictly supervise the themes of waste land, feminization of men, beautification of Japanese militarism, anarchism and beauty; In addition, in terms of payment, excessive consumption is prohibited, saying that skin changing games are the cancer of the industry.
Just when netizens thought that they had solved the cause of today’s sharp drop of Tencent according to Wang guanran’s comments on “seeking success according to the picture”, Wang guanran’s circle of friends sent a message: I haven’t sent anything today, and I was equipped with an expression bag of “picking my nose”.
Netizens eager to find the truth of the crash were confused again.
Originally, the screenshot of online transmission is Wang guanran’s analysis of the game industry in September 2021.
For such “Oolong”, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Lin Qixian and Yuan Weijia said that whether it is the prohibition of global same service, single machine real name system, skin changing games, or two-dimensional related regulation, they are the regulatory rules that existed two years ago or even earlier. Where is the “latest” regulatory content?
The financial Associated Press reporter consulted with senior people in the game industry and got the answer that it has a long history to strengthen supervision and prevent teenagers’ game addiction.
When it comes to the mixed performance of game stocks, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) said that some targets in the industry fluctuated greatly due to concerns about the floating profit of stacked chips of Internet regulation. It is not believed that the game version number and regulation are materially bad at present. On the contrary, the regulatory policy has updated the reporting provisions from the end of last year, and the ability to report upward means that the version number process is steadily piling up, but it is not clear that the market expectation is relatively chaotic when the specific version number is issued.
looking at the progress of Tencent’s game business from the financial report
Last week, important market news for Tencent, including the quarterly adjustment of Hang Seng Index, increased the proportion of Tencent holdings to 8%; And Tencent, with a market value of more than meta and ranking 10th in the world, are both good news. Because the market value exceeded meta, some netizens joked that Tencent fell sharply on the 21st because Wall Street did not allow Tencent’s market value to exceed meta and deliberately released false news.
Netizens who are keen to solve puzzles even dig up relevant clues about the “meta universe”. According to media reports, recently, Tencent Music Entertainment Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. applied for several “rhythm yuan universe” to work, and the status changed to “waiting for rejection review”. However, the trademarks such as “QQ yuanuniverse” applied by Tencent technology are still in the application state.
Jokes can solve depression, but they need to speak with data in the end. So, what information does Tencent’s latest financial report reveal? What is the development of the game business?
According to Tencent’s 2020 annual report, its total revenue in 2020 was 482.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%; The net profit reached 126.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%. According to the latest financial report of the third quarter of 2021, Tencent’s total revenue in the third quarter was 142.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%; The net profit was 31.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. On the basis of maintaining the steady growth of income, the net profit fell year-on-year, which was the first time in recent years.
As for the game business that people pay attention to, according to Tencent quarterly report, the game revenue in the local market increased by 5% year-on-year to RMB 33.6 billion in the third quarter of 2021, driven by games such as “King’s glory”, “call of duty hand tour” and “Tianya Mingyue knife hand Tour”. Game revenue in the international market increased by 20% to 11.3 billion yuan, or 28% at a fixed exchange rate.
It is worth noting that due to “anti addiction” and other measures, minors accounted for 0.7% of game hours in Tencent’s local market in the third quarter of 2021, while in September 2020, this figure was still 6.4%.
It can be seen that after the “anti addiction” regulation, Tencent has achieved good results in minors’ addiction to games. And after stricter regulation, compared with its revenue growth in the international game market, Tencent’s revenue growth in the local game market has decreased.
several institutions lowered Tencent’s target price due to the game business
In this era, the Internet is one of the most watched industries in the world, and Tencent, as a pioneer in China’s Internet market, has never lacked attention. Tencent’s game business has also become one of the most inked businesses in the Institutional Research Report.
According to the latest research report released by China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , maintaining Tencent’s “strongly recommended” rating, it is expected that the short-term growth of advertising business will continue to be under pressure in the fourth quarter of 2021 due to changes in macro consumption environment and industrial regulatory policies. However, Tencent has actively arranged innovative businesses related to “Quanzhen Internet”, and its long-term competitive advantage is still stable.
Tencent’s Q4 revenue is expected to reach 145.259 billion yuan in 2021, and its adjusted net profit is expected to reach 30.504 billion yuan.
Referring to Tencent’s game business, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the growth of online game business stabilized month on month, and paid attention to the continuous performance of Xinyou. The expected revenue of game platforms and cloud game services does not have a scale in the short term and has great growth potential in the medium and long term. Considering the deferred revenue cycle of “hero League” mobile games and the operation cycle of MoBa type games, as well as the impact of minors’ anti addiction, the bank expects the company’s game business revenue to be 43.240 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 11% year-on-year.
The research report released by Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) international on January 27 pointed out that due to the short-term pressure on Tencent games and advertising, its rating was lowered, and the target price was reduced from HK $650 to HK $585. It is estimated that Tencent’s value-added service revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 306779 million yuan and 3367.23 yuan respectively, equivalent to a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and 9.8%. In terms of online games, the revenue of flagship games is dragged down by the Chinese market; In terms of social networks, it is believed that their revenue will be more supported by paid subscriptions. Advertising growth is expected to slow down due to stricter supervision and the weakness of the macro economy and some advertisers’ industries. We expect that fintech and enterprise services will become the most important source of income for the company and actively support China’s industrial upgrading.
