Since this year, pharmaceutical stocks have been under pressure. However, with the continuous news of covid-19 oral drugs, especially on February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration conditionally approved the import registration of Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets combination packaging (i.e. paxlovid), covid-19 oral drug related companies have continued to rise recently.
On the evening of February 20, several listed companies disclosed the research and development progress and contract of covid-19 oral drug. Among them, Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) disclosed that the anti covid-19 drug nimatovir API and its key intermediate project were filed; Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) announcement to cooperate in the development of small molecular oral drugs against covid-19 virus; Cdmo (contract R & D and production) Company Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) also announced that it had won a new batch of supply contracts with an amount of about 3.542 billion yuan.
cdmo company receives frequent orders
On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration conducted emergency review and approval in accordance with the relevant provisions of the drug administration law and the special drug approval procedures, and conditionally approved the import registration of the combined packaging of nevitavir tablets / ritonavir tablets (i.e. paxlovid) of Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug.
Pfizer disclosed the details of capacity improvement in the telephone conference. The output of paxlovid will reach 6 million courses in the first quarter of this year, 30 million courses in the first half of this year and 120 million courses in the whole year.
Also on February 11, China’s cdmo enterprise Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) announced that the company had received a new batch of purchase orders from Pfizer’s companies and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) would provide cdmo services for it, with a total order amount of 681 million US dollars, which exceeded the operating revenue of Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) last year. The announcement said that the relevant purchase orders have come into force and the order delivery time is 2022.
Several days later, on February 20, cdmo enterprise Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) announced that the company continued to provide contract customized R & D and production services for a small molecule chemical innovative drug of a pharmaceutical company (hereinafter referred to as the “customer”). Recently, Jilin Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a new batch of supply contracts for related products with customers, with the contract amount equivalent to about 3.542 billion yuan, The delivery time is 2022. If the contract is successfully performed, it is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s financial situation and operating results in 2022.
It is worth noting that Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) announced in November last year that the wholly-owned subsidiary signed a new batch of supply contracts with a large pharmaceutical company in the United States, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) provided cdmo services for a small molecule chemical innovative drug of the American company. The cumulative contract amount of cdmo services of the product was 481 million US dollars (about 3.1 billion yuan), and the new supply contract has also come into force.
Although the announcements of the two companies do not directly point to Pfizer’s oral covid-19 drug paxlovid, the institutions generally believe that it is related to paxlovid’s order. Capital Securities pointed out that cdmo Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) have recently disclosed that they have obtained large orders. It is speculated from the details of amount and time that they are Pfizer paxlovid orders. With the gradual expansion of production capacity and product delivery, enterprises in the whole industrial chain are expected to benefit.
the secondary market rebounded
Since this year, the share price of pharmaceutical companies has continued to decline, Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) has fallen by 40% since December 2021. However, with the recent intensive disclosure of relevant orders, it has attracted great attention from the secondary market. Since last week, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) share prices have increased by 36% and 17% respectively.
Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) recently released the performance forecast for 2021, which shows that the company expects the annual revenue of 2021 to be 4.505 billion yuan ~ 4.662 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% ~ 48%, of which the revenue in the fourth quarter was 1.675 billion yuan ~ 1.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% ~ 62%.
Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) in the performance forecast, it was emphasized that the company’s small molecule business grew strongly, maintained the global leading position of small molecule cdmo, and the orders grew strongly. With the continuous delivery of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the revenue increased rapidly. It is estimated that the company’s small molecule business revenue increased by more than 45% year-on-year, including a year-on-year increase of more than 65% in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of exchange rate, the growth ratio was more than 50% and 70% respectively.
It is worth noting that covid-19 oral drug paxlovid has been approved by about 40 countries including the UK, Germany, Japan, Singapore and China within more than 50 days after it was urgently approved in the United States on December 22 last year. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that Pfizer expects 120 million copies of covid-19 oral drug paxlovid to be supplied in 2022, which corresponds to the huge potential of the upstream supply chain and is conducive to China’s excellent small molecule cdmo leading enterprises, including Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
Capital Securities pointed out that according to the calculation of 15% ~ 20% of the drug production cost, the market scale of the relevant industrial chain this year is US $3.3 billion ~ 4.4 billion. China’s supply chain system of small molecule drug intermediates, APIs and preparations is stable and mature, and relevant enterprises are expected to generate huge profits.
API enterprises announced on February 20 that Anqing Huichen, a holding subsidiary, obtained the project record issued by the Economic Development Bureau of Anqing high tech Industrial Development Zone on February 18. The project name is “the construction project of 100MT / a anti covid-19 drug nimatovir API and its key intermediates”. The completion time of the project is 2022, and the total investment of the project is 50.08 million yuan.
domestic covid-19 oral drug
accelerate R & D
In fact, the breakthrough of domestic covid-19 oral medicine is imminent, and multiple routes are promoted simultaneously. Considering Pfizer’s limited production capacity, high pricing (US $530 per treatment course) and the security and stability of the supply chain, domestic covid-19 oral medicine will still have a huge market.
Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) on February 20, it was announced that Shenzhen Kexing, a wholly-owned subsidiary, signed a cooperation agreement with antaiway on February 18. Globally, antaiway exclusively licensed the shen26 intellectual property it obtained or held to Shenzhen Kexing, and transferred the subsequent R & D rights and commercialization interests of products to Shenzhen Kexing. SHEN26 is an antiviral drug used for the treatment of COVID-19 and other viral infections. It has been included in the 2021 annual New Coronavirus prevention and control of New Coronavirus infection.
In addition, the R & D and production of covid-19 vaccine are also advancing in an orderly manner. On February 19, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference. At the meeting, Wu Liangyou, deputy director of the disease control bureau of the National Health Commission, said that recently, with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission had begun to deploy sequential enhanced immunization (commonly known as “mixed vaccination”).
Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) 2 20 announcement, the company’s recombinant New Coronavirus vaccine (type 5 adenovirus vector) has been approved by China for conditional listing and emergency use in many other countries. After the product is approved for sequential immunization, if the relevant national departments increase their procurement, it will have a certain positive impact on the performance of listed companies.
It is understood that after the implementation of the sequential immunization strategy, the target population of Sinopharm Zhongsheng Beijing company, Beijing Kexing company and Sinopharm Zhongsheng Wuhan company can also choose the recombinant protein vaccine of zhifeilong Kema or the adenovirus carrier vaccine of Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) for sequential immunization. For the target population, one of homologous booster immunization and sequential booster immunization can be selected. The research data show that both homologous booster immunization and sequential booster immunization can further improve the immune effect.
