Last week, the A-share market rebounded from shock, and the Shanghai Stock Index approached 3500 points. In terms of market style, the performance of value blue chips benefiting from the steady growth policy is commendable, while growth stocks, including the new energy sector, also showed a rebound trend.
In the view of brokerage institutions, the current market style still tends to the main line of stable growth, but the investment opportunities of growth stocks gradually appear, and the future market style will tend to be balanced. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future trend of a shares. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on new and old infrastructure, consumption and big finance.
growth style stabilizes and rebounds
Since this year, the main line of “steady growth” represented by construction, real estate, banking and other sectors has performed prominently, but since last week, the growth styles of new energy, medicine and so on have rebounded.
According to the data, as of the closing on February 18, among the 31 Shenwan level industries, the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology sectors ranked among the top three with weekly increases of 5.53%, 5.31% and 4.85% respectively; In contrast, the building decoration sector closed up 3.51% last week, and the building materials, real estate and banking sectors collectively closed down last week. From the perspective of the main capital flow, the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology sectors were the top in the net inflow of main capital last week, while the banking sector suffered the net outflow of main capital.
Has the current market style returned to growth? Most institutions are still relatively cautious about this.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategic analyst Wang Hanfeng pointed out that after the early adjustment, the growth style is relatively unlikely to fall further significantly and stabilize in the near future. However, combined with the current economic and policy environment, valuation and position, the growth style may not have reached the time of significant intervention, and the time point for the market to return to the growth style is preliminarily expected to be at the beginning of the second quarter.
Dai Kang, chief strategist of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , believes that the winning rate of growth stocks is gradually improving, but he is still optimistic about the main line of steady growth. From the perspective of steady growth, the inflection point of this round of social finance is ahead of schedule, and the current period to mid March may be the window for the intensive introduction of policies, and the sectors related to steady growth are expected to continue their phased performance.
According to Qin Peijing, chief strategist of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the recent steady growth policy has gradually spread from infrastructure first and real estate relay to new infrastructure, manufacturing and service industries. The policy has a wider coverage, which has also changed investors’ wrong expectations that steady growth is only limited to infrastructure and real estate, and stimulated some investors’ sentiment in favor of growth stocks. “After the adjustment since this year, the valuation of some leading companies in the growth sector has also entered a reasonable range. With the spread of the main policy line, it is expected that the growth and value style will be more balanced.” Qin Peijing said.
optimistic outlook
As for the overall trend of A-Shares last week, the three major stock indexes showed a shock upward trend. As of the closing on February 18, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.80% for the whole week and launched another impact on 3500 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% for the whole week, ending the previous downward trend of five consecutive negative days on the weekly line; The gem index rebounded even more, rising 2.93% throughout the week.
Qin Peijing believes that in the week after the Spring Festival, high-quality blue chips in some growth industries suffered panic selling. However, with the continuous overweight and spread of the steady growth policy, the market spontaneously stabilized last week, and the response to overseas inflation exceeding expectations began to be passivated. At the same time, the positions of active funds have stopped declining, and the positions of funds tend to be balanced, It means that the emotional bottom of the market has appeared and confirmed.
Wang Hanfeng pointed out that the overall market has shown signs of stabilization recently, but the transaction has not yet returned to the level before the Spring Festival. Under the background that the market is relatively low, the steady growth policy continues to exert force, and there are more than expected credit and social finance increment, which is expected to play a positive role in the market trend in the next two to three months. The continuous implementation of the policy and the improvement of forward-looking indicators are conducive to the improvement of expectations, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the subsequent market performance.
Data show that on February 18, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 810 billion yuan, the second lowest level since January 27. As for the fact that the market turnover did not increase with the rebound of the stock index, Lin rongxiong, chief strategic analyst of Anxin securities, believes that the main reason for the reduction is that the market sentiment has not improved significantly, and the activity of northbound funds, two financing funds and quantitative funds has decreased significantly. However, from a historical perspective, it is verified that the contraction is a normal phenomenon after the sharp decline, which does not mean that the rebound is not sustainable. At present, the market is at the bottom of the strategy and does not have the conditions for systematic decline. In terms of operation, investors are advised to stick to their positions as the first priority and avoid frequent stock exchange.
gradually distribute consumer stocks
For the future layout, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities chief strategic analyst Chen Xianshun believes that with the global liquidity inflection point has emerged, investors should pay attention to molecular profit reversal or marginal improvement. In terms of allocation, we will continue to grasp the main line of steady growth and gradually distribute consumer stocks. Specific directions include coal, steel, transportation, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs), household appliances, consumer services, securities companies, banks and other sectors.
Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of securities, recommended four main lines: first, the new infrastructure industry represented by “counting East and counting West”; Second, the traditional infrastructure industry represented by banks, real estate and building materials; Third, the consumption recovery sector represented by food and tax exemption; Fourth, the price increase varieties represented by the coal and oil industry chain.
In Lin rongxiong’s view, at present, the market’s recognition of “old infrastructure” is still high, but it is not suitable to catch up with the targets that have risen more in this sector. From the perspective of sustainability, at the current time point, it is suggested to pay attention to the large consumption sector with improved fundamentals and sufficient adjustment under the continuous promotion of stable growth policy.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst, suggested investors to configure “dumbbell”. On the one hand, in the growth sector, the “small high-tech enterprises” with bottom-up layout, deep adjustment range, sufficient pressure release and good prosperity are excavated; On the other hand, under the background of abundant liquidity in China, focus on the large financial sector benefiting from stable growth and wide credit.
