In the next few days, convertible bonds ushered in a rare wave of intensive forced redemption. If investors are not careful and fail to sell or convert shares in time, the forced redemption will lose up to 62%.
In the coming week, four convertible bonds will be forced to redeem; In the next half month, there will be 9 convertible bonds to be forcibly redeemed; This is very rare and intensive in the history of convertible bonds. The balance of these convertible bonds is 14.13 billion yuan, and the market value is 17.284 billion yuan.
Once there is no timely operation, the loss will be very tragic. For example, the latest closing price of Galaxy convertible bonds on the last trading day of February 24 is 263.99 yuan, but once the trading is suspended and forcibly redeemed, it will be cashed at 100.13 yuan, with a loss of 62%.
Previously, many investors failed to convert shares in time and suffered huge losses from forced redemption.
rare redemption, with a maximum loss of 62%
Just after the strong redemption of Zhengyuan convertible bonds, the intensive strong redemption tide of convertible bonds officially began this week. Intensively enter the final trading period. After the last trading day, the trading will be suspended and redeemed.
There are four convertible bonds to be redeemed in a row this week. A batch of convertible bonds ushered in the doomsday transaction, including biyin convertible bonds on February 22, Zhongding convertible bonds on February 23, Galaxy convertible bonds and xingshuai convertible bonds on February 24, followed by heavy Dongcai convertible bonds 3 and Aorui convertible bonds finally traded on February 28, as well as Baichuan convertible bonds, Tongde convertible bonds and nuclear convertible bonds in early March.
This batch of 9 convertible bonds has a bond balance of more than 14 billion yuan, and the market value at the latest price is 17.284 billion yuan. If the current balance is redeemed at the redemption price, it will lose 3.1 billion yuan.
These convertible bonds are due to the triggering of strong redemption terms, leading to strong redemption of bonds. At present, at the latest closing price, the latest price of Galaxy convertible bonds is 263.99 yuan. After the last trading day on February 24, it will be redeemed at 100.13 yuan, a loss of 62%. Baichuan convertible bonds in early March will also lose more than 50%.
At present, the biyin convertible bond that needs to be redeemed fastest is 165.2 yuan. The redemption price is 100.42 yuan, resulting in a loss of 39%. The last trading day is February 22, with only two trading days left.
some people have suffered huge losses before:
pay for ignorance and lose a lot
For example, on January 11 this year, the delisted Binhua convertible bonds were forcibly redeemed, and more than 9 million shares were not forcibly redeemed at the time of forcible redemption; The forced redemption price of Binhua convertible bond is 100.378 yuan, while the final price before delisting is 169.2 yuan, and the forced redemption will lose 40%.
According to the market value and the scale of forced redemption, the investors of Binhua convertible bonds were forced to redeem and lost 6.24 million yuan overnight.
There are also Baotong convertible bonds that were forcibly redeemed on January 11. The final closing price was 132.101 yuan and the redemption price was 100.458 yuan. About 9 million yuan was forcibly redeemed. Those who encounter forced redemption will lose 24%.
Some netizens cried in the stock bar, failed to sell or convert shares in time, lost a lot, and paid for their ignorance.
securities companies: the valuation of convertible bonds is still high and the upward momentum is weak
equity direction is more critical
The continuous bull market of convertible bonds has been suddenly and repeatedly plunged recently. The changes of the convertible bond market have aroused concern. Some securities companies recently believe that the valuation of convertible bonds is still high and the upward momentum is weak.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) according to the latest research report, at present, the valuation of various varieties (convertible bonds) is still at a historical high, and low parity convertible bonds are still safe haven varieties, but the historical quantile of valuation is the highest. Whether the "low price trap" can be converted into excess decline in the future has not been verified by history except in the period of credit risk.
There is the ability to maintain the valuation of subsequent convertible bonds, which mainly depends on the will. Among several factors affecting the valuation, the macro liquidity level is still relatively low, and the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.80% on February 18. The higher than expected total amount of social finance in China and the opening of the interest rate hike cycle in the United States have formed certain constraints on the further easing of monetary policy, but the goal of economic recovery and consumption stabilization caused by credit easing is far from being achieved, and the interest rate of about 2.8% may continue.
Market sentiment and incremental funds are also important factors affecting the valuation of convertible bonds. The cold data of newly established funds in January is also one of the reasons for the adjustment of China stock market news and the whole market on February 14. From the month on month and year-on-year perspective, the data in January is indeed not ideal; For example, compared with the establishment of the fund in April after the decline in March 2021, the investment enthusiasm of the equity part is OK, and the decline in the establishment scale of the debt base is more worthy of vigilance.
