Today (February 21), the opening of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated. At the beginning of the trading, the stock index was divided, and the Shanghai index showed a pulse downward pattern, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index once soared and turned red, then fell rapidly, followed by the further decline of the Shanghai index, and the weak pattern was seen at a glance.
From the disk point of view, the concept of "counting from the east to the west" took the lead, and the subject of the industrial chain set off a wave of limit. In addition, cultural media, agricultural planting, coal and other sectors also performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the volume of A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent, mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend. In the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China's continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on the value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] coal
Capital Securities pointed out that according to the forecast of China electricity Union, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year in 2022. We believe that on the basis of this forecast, the total coal consumption will still maintain a positive growth rate in 2022. Superimposed on the steady growth this year, the infrastructure and manufacturing industry will continue to develop, the power demand will continue to grow, the coal side capacity limit cannot be reduced in the short term, and the price has risen rapidly since 2021, The upward movement of the price center has basically become a consensus. The fixed asset investment of coal caused by de capacity and "double carbon" has been at a low level for a long time. At present, the release elasticity on the supply side is still insufficient, and the future constraints on the supply side will continue. The reasonable profitability of coal enterprises plays an important role in the replacement and stability of new and old energy in the future, We expect that the coal price in 2022 may be expected to maintain the annual average level in 2021, and the high performance level is expected to be maintained this year. At present, the low PE valuation level of high-quality coal listed companies is generally 8-9 times. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the performance of coal stocks in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation and the valuation will have a certain repair space. The double factors of performance and valuation repair are superimposed, Configuration advantages are obvious.
Cinda Securities believes that the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, and the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector "both offensive and defensive", and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , which is the leader of low value and high dividend power coal; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) with both scarcity of resources and significant growth; Third, the Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) with great extension expansion potential brought by the improvement of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that steady growth at the policy level, relaxed coal consumption indicators and favorable demand expansion; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. []
[Theme 2] agricultural planting
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the overall development of seed enterprises is improving, and the expansion of superior seeds is expected to become the main theme. The State encourages the introduction of excellent germplasm resources, tackling key core technologies of provenance, and accelerating the cultivation and popularization of new varieties. The development environment of leading seed enterprises is expected to be improved. While the sowing area of major crops such as corn is expanded, the improved seed rate is expected to increase, and the scale of high-quality seed market is expected to increase.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that from the perspective of cycle, the seed industry, as a post grain price cycle, will be in the release channel of performance in the next two years; The improvement of supply and demand structure of corn seeds in China is also expected to usher in the reversal of inventory cycle. The accelerated landing of genetically modified products will bring changes in variety generation to the industry, and the leading enterprises will usher in a high-speed growth stage of rising prices and increasing market share. Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) are recommended.
In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the correction of valuation in the short-term seed industry sector does not change the long-term trend of the industry. The intensive introduction of seed industry policies in 2021, the release of national corn and rice variety approval standard (revised in 2021) and the adoption of the draft amendment to the Seed Law are aimed at encouraging seed industry innovation and combating trademark infringement, We believe that the intellectual property protection mechanism of seed industry will continue to be strengthened in the future, which is conducive to seed enterprises with technological innovation ability to seize a higher market share. In 2022, China's corn supply and demand remained tight, the price fluctuated at a high level, and the price of soybean meal continued to strengthen due to the rise of us beans. We believe that under the high grain price, China's biological breeding related support policies are expected to be further introduced. []
[Theme 3] cultural media
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the total box office output of the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger in 2022 was 6.035 billion yuan, which was equivalent to the box office level in 2019, but decreased by 29% year-on-year in 2021. While the box office performance reached the second in the history of the Spring Festival, it also became the first decline in the Spring Festival in five years; Pay attention to the possibility of continuous upward repair in the medium and long-term industry. We believe that the decline in the box office of the Spring Festival, especially the number of film viewers, is mainly affected by short-term factors: the reduction in the supply of high-quality content under the background of the epidemic (the reduction in the number of new films in the Spring Festival, the lack of family fun films with box office appeal, etc.) and the rise in theater ticket prices under the superimposed operating pressure inhibit the release of film viewing demand; In the medium and long term, with the gradual retreat of the epidemic, the supply and quality of content are expected to continue to rise, the demand for film viewing is expected to continue to release, and we continue to be optimistic about high-quality content producers and cinema leaders.
In addition, Huaxin Securities said that after the beginning of the year 2022, the yuan universe sector fluctuated slightly. Externally, the latest performance released by Facebook (meta platforms) and roblox fell lower than expected. The secondary market showed fluctuations and differences in its attention to the capital level of the yuan universe sector. However, from the perspective of the primary market and enterprises, the investment and financing related to Yuan universe was relatively active, We are still optimistic about the new increment brought by the meta universe sector and the new commercial value of sports. In the Winter Olympics, China Central Television frequently launched VR to watch the Winter Olympics. China Central Television Frequency VR is also the specific practice of the 5g + 4K / 8K + AI development strategy of the headquarters. Taking full advantage of the advantages of VR technology, it integrates VR and 8K technology and innovation to empower the headquarters, and provides more than 80 hours of immersive interactive coverage of live broadcast and on-demand of the Beijing Olympic Games, Important sports events also bring universal popularity to VR immersive experience.
Yuancosmos will also take over the mobile Internet and open a new chapter in digitization. Recently, the CBRC pointed out that we should be vigilant against the use of Yuan universe for illegal fund-raising, involving games, virtual currency, real estate, etc. we believe that the development of any new thing is accompanied by trial and error. Among them, top-down supervision is conducive to the healthy and long-term development of the industry. Under the influence of short-term emotions, we will not change to the medium and long-term development of the industry. []
[theme 4] East number and West calculation
Donghai securities mentioned that the project of "counting from the east to the west" was officially launched. "Counting from the east to the west" project belongs to digital infrastructure construction, that is, new infrastructure construction. The construction of computing hub and data center cluster will expand the effective investment in upstream and downstream industrial chains and help the economy achieve steady growth. The data center industrial chain includes not only traditional civil engineering, but also it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software, green energy supply, etc., which may boost the relevant industrial chains in the future.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the East digital West computing project is expected to drive the overall improvement of computing power demand in the central and western regions, and the key benefits of the communication industry chain. It is expected to drive the development of data centers and related upstream and downstream industries and expand industrial investment through the layout of 8 computing hubs and the formation of data center clusters across the country. We are optimistic about the demand drive of the East digital West computing project for IDC, ICT equipment, optical modules, operators, temperature control equipment, optical communication and other fields.
As the core base of the East digital West computing project, the communication sector is expected to benefit mainly: 1) operators: the advantages of cloud network integration and cloud edge combination of operators are prominent. Operators have a large-scale computing power layout in the central and western regions, and the public cloud and edge cloud are also growing rapidly, which is expected to continuously improve the operating efficiency. It is suggested to pay attention to China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) ;
2) temperature control equipment: green energy-saving development of data center + stricter pue control is expected to continue to promote the demand for temperature control equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Nanjing Canatal Data-Centre Environmental Tech Co.Ltd(603912) ;
3) ICT equipment & optical module: ICT equipment and optical module are the basis of computing power network. The construction of data center cluster + the increasing demand for computing power is expected to promote the expansion and upgrading of servers, switches, routers and optical modules. It is recommended to pay attention to Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Zte Corporation(000063) , Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) ;
4) optical communication: the explosion of data traffic is expected to accelerate the promotion of optical fiber communication to all-optical network. It is optimistic that the centralized procurement volume and price of optical fiber and optical cable of operators will rise together to promote the high-quality growth of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) , Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company(601869) ;
5) IDC: under the policy environment of counting from the east to the west, the energy consumption indicators of first tier cities are becoming stricter. The advantages of IDC leaders with strong foundation and in-depth cooperation with Internet and cloud manufacturers in and around first tier cities continue to highlight. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that the "East digital West computing" project will focus on supporting innovative contents such as green data center (green energy conservation, renewable energy and energy storage), efficient scheduling of computing power (Cloud Computing), and controllable innovation of computing power (domestic basic software and hardware, cloud platform, big data analysis). The project of "counting from the east to the west" will drive the demand opportunities of data center operation and civil engineering, it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software and green energy supply in the industrial chain. []
