Today (February 21), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock pattern as a whole. In early trading, the Shanghai index went out of the pulse downward trend, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index rose and fell, and maintained a low shock; In the afternoon, the stock index fluctuated occasionally, and the Shenzhen composite index finally turned red, while the Shanghai index fluctuated near the closing point on Friday and finally closed flat.
In this regard, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that repeated grinding is more solid, and it is in the period of strategic allocation in the medium and long term. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China’s growth stabilize gradually;
Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed and paid attention to two main investment lines: first, the allocation varieties of policy “steady growth”, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
sector:
I. real estate development
For the real estate industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that it maintained the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period”. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Capital securities mentioned that at present, the valuation center of the real estate industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we think the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, It is not ruled out that non hot cities break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) China’s overseas development.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the main line of “stable growth”, the expectation of policy game is increasing, and the market deduction path is gradually clear, making the transition from state-owned enterprise housing to private enterprise housing and property management companies. At present, the industry policy supports the gradual transition from the supply side to the demand side. The relaxation of the management of guaranteed housing loans and the regulation and adjustment of pre-sale funds are the beginning of “stable growth”. Later, we will pay attention to the implementation of policies before and after the two sessions, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading stocks of residential development: Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality property management companies: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Jinke service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) .
II. baby child concept
According to AI media, by 2020, the size of China’s maternal and infant market has exceeded 400 billion yuan. With the implementation of the three child policy and the release of some fertility supporting measures, the population fertility rate may rise slightly in the future, and the market scale of the mother and child industry is expected to continue to rise. It is expected that the market scale will increase to 7546 billion yuan by 2024. In terms of users, the post-80s and post-90s, as the main force of current mother and baby consumption, generally have a “debt mentality” from pregnancy to childbirth, from education to life. The concept of elite parenting is sought after. The new generation of nursing fathers and mothers have continuously improved their requirements for the quality of mother and baby products, and the mother and baby industry chain has been continuously upgraded and professionalized The high-end market will usher in growth opportunities.
Earlier, AVIC Securities said that according to the statistics of China Central Television, since 2021, more than 10 provinces across the country have passed relevant regulations and have implemented or will implement measures such as extending maternity leave, increasing parental leave and spouse care leave, including Beijing, Hubei, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hebei, Anhui, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Heilongjiang. Among them, Zhejiang has 188 days off for two or three children. In addition, many places are drafting or publicly soliciting opinions. The implementation of the extended maternity leave policy in many places and the continuous promotion of supporting policies in the future will increase the birth rate to a certain extent, so as to boost the demand for relevant mother and child consumption. Companies such as milk powder, children’s clothing, childcare, mother and child services and medical care are expected to benefit directly.
In addition, Wanlian securities also pointed out that since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that in the future, with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies, the birth rate is expected to boost. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and child tracks in advance.
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