According to media reports, industry sources revealed that the "14th five year plan" new energy storage development plan will be officially introduced in the near future.
New energy storage refers to the new electric energy storage technology besides pumped storage, including lithium battery, compressed air, liquid flow, flywheel, sodium battery, hydrogen storage, heat storage and other ways.
At present, the installed capacity of pumped storage in China accounts for more than 80%, but there are some problems, such as geographical location constraints, long construction cycle of power stations, large initial investment and so on. The new energy storage has the advantages of small geographical constraints, short construction cycle and continuous decline in cost. It plays a vital role in building a new power system with new energy as the main body.
policies related to new energy storage are gradually implemented
the market space is nearly 100 billion yuan
Since the second half of 2021, under the background of accelerating the transformation of energy structure, new energy storage related policies have been gradually implemented. The national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration have drafted the guidance on accelerating the development of new energy storage (Draft for comments), which proposes that by 2025, the new energy storage will change from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development, with an installed capacity of more than 30 million KW; By 2030, the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will be realized, and the core technology and equipment of new energy storage will be independent and controllable.
Previously, Liu Yafang, deputy director of the science and Technology Equipment Department of the national energy administration, predicted at the Sixth China energy storage western forum that the installed capacity of China's new energy storage will exceed 4 million kilowatts by the end of 2021.
According to incomplete statistics, at present, more than 20 provinces have requested or suggested that new energy power stations be equipped with energy storage, with a configuration proportion of about 10% and a configuration time of about 2 hours.
According to cnesa statistics, by the end of 2020, the cumulative scale of energy storage projects put into operation in China is 35.6gw, of which the scale of non pumped storage is about 3.8gw, which means that the scale of new energy storage in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach more than 26gw. If calculated according to the 2-hour configuration capacity, it corresponds to a new energy storage capacity of more than 50gwh, referring to the cost of lithium battery energy storage system of 1500 yuan / kwh in China in 2020, the corresponding market space is nearly 100 billion yuan.
among a number of new energy storage routes, electrochemical energy storage has the widest application range and the highest commercial maturity. by the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of global energy storage was 191.1gw, of which the cumulative scale of pumped energy storage was the largest, followed by electrochemical energy storage. Although the cumulative scale was far less than that of pumped energy storage, it increased by 49% year-on-year, 48 percentage points higher than that of pumped energy storage.
The above guidance also proposes to strengthen the research on electrochemical energy storage safety technology, adhere to the diversification of energy storage technology, and promote the continuous decline in the cost and commercial scale application of relatively mature new energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries.
Huang Xiuyu, an analyst at Dongguan securities, and Su Chen, an analyst at Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) have previously released research reports. It is expected that electrochemical energy storage will become the main development direction of energy storage in the future. Deng Yongkang, an analyst at Anxin securities, estimates that the global electrochemical energy storage market for power system is expected to exceed 500 billion in 2025, with broad growth space. China's lithium iron phosphate energy storage products are expected to continue to increase the market share with high cost performance in the future, and Chinese enterprises have great prospects.
Peng Guangchun, an analyst at Huachuang securities, further said that energy storage is an indispensable part of the new energy power system. It is suggested to pay attention to the following main investment lines: 1) high quality targets of deep ploughing energy storage batteries: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) ; 2) New innovative energy storage route (sodium ion battery) high-quality targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) ; 3) High quality targets of Inverter Industry: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) etc; 4) High quality targets of system integration industry: Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) .
