From February 16 to 17, Beijing, as the first city, completed the first batch of centralized land supply this year. In this local auction, Beijing launched a total of 18 residential land, and finally 17 transactions, with a total transaction amount of 48.02 billion yuan. The main features of this earth shooting are as follows:
High requirements for bidding rules and sufficient profit space. The local auction continued the requirements of competitive existing house sales and high standards last year, and increased the proportion of plots in competitive existing house sales area to 50%.
This puts forward higher requirements for the construction capacity and cash flow capacity of real estate enterprises. Although the proportion of plots sold for existing houses has increased, there is still sufficient profit space for the land auction this time. The price difference between house prices and land prices is all higher than 20000 yuan / m2. The implied gross profit margin we calculated is 35.3%, which is close to the second and third batches of land last year.
The land auction rate decreased, the limit rate increased, the premium rate increased, and the market recovered significantly. Only one piece of land was sold in this centralized land supply, and the rate was 5.6%, which was nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of the third centralized land supply last year. Three land transactions reached the ceiling price, and the limit touching rate was 16.7%, an increase of 9 percentage points over the last time. In terms of premium rate, the overall premium rate of this centralized land supply is 3.7%. 2 percentage points higher than last time.
Real estate enterprises actively participate in the auction, with large-scale real estate enterprises and local platform companies as the main force for land acquisition. More than 20 real estate enterprises participated in the local auction. In terms of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, large-scale real estate enterprises (especially the top ten real estate enterprises) perform well, accounting for about 60%. Local platform companies take up about 30% of the land. As the only private enterprise to obtain land, Xuhui won one land.
Combined with the performance of this local auction in Beijing, we expect the following three characteristics in the national local auction market this year: in terms of local auction rules, all localities are expected to continue the local auction rules for 21 years, focusing on stability and promoting the steady development of the land market. In terms of transaction structure, land transactions between and within cities continue to maintain differentiation. In terms of land acquired real estate enterprises, large-scale real estate enterprises will gradually return, state-owned enterprises will continue to maintain their dominant position, and local platform companies are still important participants in local auction.
Soil photography has become a touchstone to test the financial strength of developers and a telescope to predict their future development prospects. We are optimistic about the developers and their affiliated property management enterprises actively taking land in the local auction. Including a shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Greentown China and Xuhui holding group. Property management recommendations include Hong Kong stocks: Poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life and CNOOC property.
Risk tip: upgrading of regulation policies in the real estate industry; The epidemic has been repeated.
