Market Review
The weekly turnover of first-hand houses decreased year-on-year and increased month on month. This week, the transaction area of first-hand houses in key cities decreased by 50.6% year-on-year and increased by 72.5% month on month; Among them, the first tier cities increased by 121.2%, the second tier cities increased by 65.5% and the third tier cities increased by 41.1% month on month.
Since February, the pace of pushing the market has slowed down. Up to now, the total number of sales on the first line has decreased by 76.5% compared with that on the second line, a decrease of 1.2% compared with that on the first line, a decrease of 62.5% compared with that on the second line.
The new land supply of 100 cities decreased year-on-year and increased month on month. This week, the new land supply of Baicheng was 2.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 61.6% and a month on month increase of 258.9%; There is still no new land supply in the first tier cities; The new land supply in second tier cities was 1.7457 million square meters, up 438.0% month on month; The new land supply in the third tier cities was 564700 square meters, up 76.9% month on month.
Industry highlights: with regard to the reduction of the down payment ratio of housing loans in Heze, Shandong Province to 20%, the president of a local bank said that only a small number of high-quality customers can enjoy it; Recently, some banks in Chongqing, Heze, Shandong and Ganzhou, Jiangxi have lowered the down payment ratio of the first house to 20%; (21st Century Business Herald)
Industry perspective:
This week, CITIC Real Estate Index fell 0.8%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.1%, and the sector underperformed the market. Affected by the release of industrial risks, the sector fell 3.9% in the first four days of this week. However, the sharp rise of 3.3% on Friday was mainly due to some media reports that the down payment ratio was reduced in Heze, Shandong, Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi. We believe that the space for urban policy implementation on the demand side continues to open, and began to touch on the core policies of loan restriction and so on. Reiterate the view that 2022q1 is the best configuration window for the real estate and property management sector. There will be an obvious situation that the company alpha is more important than the industry beta in the market performance, and some high-quality companies will stand out. Among them, the real estate development sector mainly promotes the real estate enterprises with high credit or outstanding commercial operation ability, and the real estate enterprises with fruitful diversified transformation also deserve attention. A shares recommended by the developer: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. Property management recommendations include a shares: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ; Hong Kong stocks: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life. Green City Management Holdings is recommended by the agent construction standard.
Risk tip: upgrading of regulation policies in the real estate industry; Sales and carry forward are less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The competition intensity of the property management company is upgraded, and the external expansion is blocked.
