This week's view: the bidding was launched on a large scale at the beginning of the year, and the wind power storage and installation capacity is expected in 2022: the off-season of bidding at the beginning of the year is not light, and the large-scale fan drives the cost down rapidly. According to incomplete statistics, the public bidding capacity of wind turbines in China exceeded 7gw in January 2022, continuing the high-speed growth trend since 2021. We believe that the cost decline driven by the large-scale wind turbine is an important factor to promote the large-scale bidding of wind turbines in China. At the beginning of 2022, the quotation of wind turbines with towers of some projects has been as low as about 2000 yuan / kW, and China's wind power industry has entered a new growth cycle driven by its own economy. With the support of early bidding projects, we expect that the installed capacity of onshore wind power in China in 2022 is expected to be significantly higher than that in 2021, and the promotion speed of affordable sea wind projects will also be faster than expected.
Photovoltaic: there is a strong demand for installed capacity in various fields, and large-scale module bidding has been launched. Since December 2021, the price of photovoltaic modules has gradually dropped from the high of more than 2 yuan / w to the range of 1.8-1.9 yuan / W. under this price level, the terminal demand has improved significantly. China's large-scale module bidding was opened in early 2022. According to incomplete statistics, the scale of module bidding in January has been close to 25gw In 2021, due to the shortage of silicon materials in the upstream and the strong game mood in the industrial chain, the installed pace of China's ground power stations obviously lags behind. With the gradual release of new silicon production capacity, it is expected that the component price will gradually fall in 2022, and the installed capacity of power stations in China is expected to start on a large scale. At the same time, the distributed installed capacity will maintain high-speed growth with the help of policies such as the promotion of the whole county. The upward trend of the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry chain has been basically established.
Energy storage: new energy supporting projects are gradually implemented, and China's energy storage demand is released. In the competitive configuration rules for wind power and photovoltaic projects issued by all provinces in 2021, energy storage has basically become the "standard configuration" of new energy projects.
We have roughly calculated the scale of energy storage on the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) power generation side according to the competitive allocation results of scenery projects and the requirements of energy storage allocation issued by all provinces. At present, the total scale of supporting energy storage projects has been close to 50gwh. It is expected that these energy storage projects will be gradually implemented from 2022, and China's energy storage industry is stepping into the stage of large-scale development.
Market review this week: in the seventh week of 2022, the power equipment sector led the market in terms of growth. This week, the power equipment sector rose by 5.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.4%. Among them, the wind power equipment sector performed best (+ 7.0%), while other power equipment sectors performed relatively poorly (+ 1.3%).
Industry chain tracking: the prosperity of lithium battery industry chain continues, and the price of silicon material continues to rise. Lithium battery: the prosperity of downstream demand is superimposed, and the shortage of some raw materials continues. The overall price of lithium battery industry chain remains high this week, and ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have increased significantly.
Photovoltaic: the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers and cells all went up this week. In the short term, the demand for installed capacity at home and abroad remains strong, and the price of the industrial chain remains high after the Spring Festival. With the gradual release of new silicon production capacity in 2022, the demand for terminal installed capacity is expected to rise rapidly.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc.
