In the past six years, China's sea breeze installed capacity has achieved rapid growth with the support of subsidy policies. The new installed capacity increased from 0.59gw in 2016 to 3.06gw in 2020. In the last year of sea breeze subsidy in 2021, under the guidance of rush loading, 16.9gw of sea breeze installed capacity was realized. At present, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China has reached 26.4gw According to scholars' research, in Haifeng project, the initial investment cost accounts for about 40-45%, the operation and maintenance cost accounts for 25% - 40%, and the sum of financing cost and tax accounts for 15% - 35%. From the perspective of the split of lcoe, the key to reducing the cost of offshore wind power is not only to reduce the initial investment cost, but also to reduce the operation and maintenance cost. According to Irena statistics, the kWh cost of offshore wind power has decreased from US $0.162/kw to US $0.084/kw in 2020 in the past decade The proportion of initial investment cost in kwh cost remains between 35% - 50%.
Cost reduction power promotes large-scale units. According to GWEC data, the average power of European offshore wind turbines has reached 9.5MW and will continue to expand in the future. The contribution of large-scale offshore wind turbine to the cost of offshore wind power lies in: 1) increasing power generation. According to the data disclosed in Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , under the average wind speed of 6.5m/s, its gw130 / 2.5MW model can increase the power generation by 7-8% compared with gw121 / 2.5MW model. 2) Scale effect reduces transportation, installation and later operation and maintenance costs. According to the research of relevant scholars, the proportion of wind turbine equipment, wind power installation and construction in the initial investment cost of wind power has reached 32.97% and 30.57% respectively. The adoption of large MW units can effectively reduce the number of units and reduce the relevant initial investment and later operation and maintenance costs.
According to the wind power bidding plan disclosed in 2022, most projects have required the use of high-power units, and the large-scale offshore wind turbine has become driven by the general trend after the withdrawal of state subsidies. In addition, the single watt price of wind turbine has also decreased greatly. In the procurement bidding of 300MW wind turbine for zheneng Taizhou No. 1 offshore wind farm project, with the tower included, the lowest quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) has reached 3548 yuan / kW, and the price reduction rate of wind turbine is significant. According to relevant calculations, for a project with an offshore installed capacity of 1600MW in Fujian Province, under the local benchmark coal price of 0.3932 yuan / kWh and the static investment cost of 12000 yuan / kW (with the smooth process of large-scale units, the improvement of the degree of localization of relevant parts and materials and the joint promotion of scale effect), under relatively loose assumptions, Can achieve the goal of sea breeze parity.
Wind power investment strategy: 2022 is the first year of sea wind parity. Affected by cost reduction factors, the profit pressure of upstream and midstream links of complete machine manufacturing is significant, and the profit pressure of submarine cable and tower is slightly better than that of complete machine. The overall cost reduction of the wind power industry chain meets the parity requirements. It is expected that the demand will drop significantly in 22 years, and the demand will gradually recover in 23 / 24 / 25 years. During the Tenth Five Year Plan period, the sea wind will develop to deep and Far Seas. It is expected that the demand for floating offshore wind power will increase rapidly at the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is suggested to pay attention to Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) of submarine cable and tower.
Photovoltaic investment strategy: 1) the capacity release expectation of silicon material link is clear, and the profit rebound logic of integrated module enterprises is clear. It is recommended to pay attention to Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; 2) In the context of carbon neutrality goal, the state vigorously promotes the development of new energy, improves the use of photovoltaic by enterprises and users through the promotion of the whole county and green power trading, and the demand for distributed photovoltaic increases. It is suggested to pay attention to Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) ; 3) In the past 22 years, the global photovoltaic demand has continued to improve. It is suggested to focus on Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) benefiting from the total logic.
Investment strategy of new energy vehicles: new energy vehicles are the only way to achieve carbon neutrality in the field of road transportation. It is suggested to pay attention to the following main investment lines: 1) stable leaders with global competitiveness in various sub sectors: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) . 2) Second tier lithium battery enterprises of deep ploughing power and energy storage batteries: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , etc. 3) Other basic high-quality targets of lithium battery materials: Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) . 4) Leading parts benefiting from global Electrification: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 5) New forces driven by products and leading Intelligence: Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, etc.
Risk tip: the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the installed capacity and policies of new energy do not meet expectations.
