“Raising the backbone of a shares” has become a hot topic of A-Shares recently, but from the recent market performance, the A-share market is still the usual way to sleep. Many people ask, why can’t our stock market keep going? I think we can find the reasons from the following aspects.
weak foundation: the quality of listed companies needs to be improved. China’s stock market has served for enterprise financing since its opening day, which has triggered a series of problems:
first, the issuance of new shares is excessive and one-sided pursuit of quantitative growth. the number of Listed Companies in our capital market has gone through hundreds of years in the western capital market for decades, and the number of nearly 5000 listed companies is almost equal to that of Listed Companies in the U.S. stock market. The result of excessive pursuit of quantity growth is a mixture of good and bad, a large number of problematic companies sneak into the capital market, and the barrier lake of IPO is always difficult to eliminate.
second, the enterprise has excessive financing and does not care about the return on investment at all. after listing, many companies do not try their best to repay shareholders, but rack their brains to pay money from shareholders. In 2020 and 2021, there were more than 600 refinancing times through additional issuance, allotment of shares and issuance of convertible bonds, and the blood drawn from the market reached 1133.3 billion yuan and 1232 billion yuan respectively, hitting a record high. Many enterprises pay a large proportion of dividends on one hand and crazy additional issuance on the other hand; Some enterprises have a large amount of funds in their accounts and continue to ask for money from the market; More enterprises will increase by tens of billions and hundreds of billions, and regard the stock market as their own ATM. After 2012, the net repurchase of listed companies has exceeded the net additional issuance of US stocks.
third, the performance has changed rapidly, forming a general distrust of blue chip stocks. at the end of every year, what investors fear most is that they step on the thunder in their stocks and run away as soon as there is a slight disturbance. The prospectus of many companies is described as hype, and the original form of money is revealed. It may be st in the first year, two years, three years and four years. The most hateful thing is that the performance forecast changes face, so that investors do not know which information is true or false.
Fourth, the delisting of listed companies is not strong, and bad currencies expel good ones. we have been shouting for many years to unblock the market exit. Under the registration system, we still only hear the sound of stairs and no one comes down. In the 20 years from the delisting of Pt Narcissus in 2001 to the end of 2021, less than 100 listed companies have been delisted in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. From 1980 to 2017, there were 565 delisting enterprises on NASDAQ and NYSE, including 148 delisting enterprises on NYSE and 401 delisting enterprises on Nasdaq, basically achieving a dynamic balance between the number of listed enterprises on the exchange and the number of delisting enterprises.
fifth, the sectors and individual stocks that play a mainstay role in the market are lack of display, and their growth and representativeness are not strong. compared with the leading change history of the top 10 stock market values of China and the United States in the past 20 years since 2000, it can be found that the top 10 companies in a stock market have the same Chinese prefix for a long time: banking, insurance and two barrels of oil. Until 2020, Maotai surpassed the universe and rose to the top of the list, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) squeezed into the top 10, the structure changed slightly. The traditional bancassurance oil basically has no growth and can not reflect the changes and characteristics of China’s economy. On the contrary, technology stocks have occupied a place in US stocks from the beginning. By 2010, apple entered the top 10 companies with market capitalization; In 2015, technology stocks accounted for half of the country, occupying the C position. In 2020, the amount of technology shares further expanded. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google all had a market value of more than US $trillion, and Alibaba, TSMC and Tesla entered the top 10 Apple’s market value has not only risen dozens of times, but also its share price has risen more than a thousand times in the 20 years since its resumption of rights. In addition, they account for a large proportion of the index power, so they will certainly become the backbone of the rise of the stock market.
weak muscles and bones: investment institutions have scale but no power. Data show that the total scale of public and private equity funds in China has exceeded 45 trillion. The era of institutions dominating the market is coming. Originally, the purpose of our vigorous development of institutional investors was to give full play to their role as market ballast and fixer. However, it is very limited in actual operation. On the one hand, driven by the fee commission and ranking assessment, the convergence and short-term behavior of institutional investors are very obvious. Open the fund report every quarter, you will find that the position stock allocation of the same type and theme funds is basically the same. The result of their group speculation is to help rise and fall, and it is impossible to adjust against the market. On the other hand, due to the convenient operation and lack of trust responsibility, different fund strategies under the management of the same fund company or the same fund manager are completely similar to Ponzi schemes. They often gamble on a track, a concept and several stocks, constantly increase their original positions with the money of the newly established fund and the money of the subsequent purchase, and use the large investors to sacrifice multiple funds Follow up fund buyers’ interests to do performance and ranking. The crowning calamity is the last thing that happens if the bubble burst.
trading does not support: index hot spots do not form a joint force and cannot find a lift. If we want to make and support the stock market, we must form a joint force. There are also problems in this regard. First, the compilation of the index can not reflect the changes of the economy. The Shanghai stock index, which investors are used to staring at, is a comprehensive index. There are no growing traditional industries, especially the banking, insurance and oil sector. The influence ability of emerging industries and technology stocks is weak. If the traditional sector does not move, the index will not go anywhere. Secondly, there is no trend of wrestling between traditional industries and emerging industries. Thirdly, the game between major shareholders and secondary market investors affects long-term investment confidence. The lifting and reduction of major shareholders is always the sword of Damour and Chris hanging on the heads of investors. If you do not be careless with the above, a sudden reduction announcement will be made by the large shareholders. The investors will follow the trend of buying the stock and see that the stock price is in bubble or there is an unknown question.
bad atmosphere: investors’ speculative impulse is greater than investment consciousness. The stock market profit basically comes from the price difference income, which determines that investors pay more attention to short-term fluctuations, follow the trend of hot speculation, and participate more in chasing up and down. No long-term plan, no shareholding patience, no tenacity of value investment. Finally, the most dazzling is the demon stock. For example, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Zotye Automobile Co.Ltd(000980) , Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) which have been very eye-catching in the past year are all low-cost poor performance stocks without performance support. If the market is new, small and poor, it can make a lot of money. Even if there is a bull market, it must be a bull market of hot money. It will not go long.
In short, a large number of high-quality companies are the foundation for building the backbone of a shares, the key is that institutions can play the role of the mainstay, the support is that there are hot sectors and individual stocks reflecting the general trend of economic development of the times, the premise is to scientifically adjust the index compilation method according to law and fair supervision, and the main body of value investment and long-term investment is the guarantee.
