This week, the gem index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.93%, 1.78% and 0.80% respectively. How to interpret the future market? Let's look at the latest summary of the strategies of the top ten securities companies.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : stick to the main line of steady growth, focus on "two low positions" and actively layout high-quality blue chips
The steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the "short board". The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market. The concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The "three bottoms" have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market and actively layout.
First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The future policies will be continuously refined, which is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption.
Secondly, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on traditional industries that underestimate the value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced.
Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn.
It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions". Specifically include:
1) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low , focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobiles and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc., and airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to be still low;
2) varieties with relatively low valuation . It is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, and data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from "computing from the East and the west", Internet leaders driven by the content of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of the decline of some leaders, as well as fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : "steady growth" market is still on the way, and the value will still dominate
The latest research report of Chen Xianshun's research team pointed out that "steady growth" has been the focus of the market since the central economic work conference at the end of 2021. The inflection point of global liquidity has emerged, and the asynchronous window period of China US monetary policy is narrowing, which makes the valuation side do not have a comprehensive basis for raising, so we should focus on the direction of valuation repair. Starting from DDM model, we should pay attention to molecular profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages, and the "steady growth" market is still on the way.
On the whole, the current market is low, the risk appetite and the economic fundamentals have not yet been fulfilled, the value will still dominate at this stage, and the opportunities for growth, especially for track companies, still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite. The water flows to the bottom, according to the order of steady growth and the marginal improvement degree of profit,
Recommendation: 1) infrastructure : coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical industry - infrastructure real estate / mechanical equipment; 2) consumption : agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs) / household appliances / consumer services; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) consumer electronics .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : it is recommended to continue to maintain a balanced allocation, and the short-term steady growth can still be
The rotation of hot spots in the market is accelerating. It is suggested to continue to maintain balanced allocation, maintain stable growth in the short term, and actively layout the market in the third stage of growth in the medium term. In the second week after the February Festival, the growth style represented by power equipment and lithium battery rebounded significantly, while the stable growth chain with good performance in the first week showed differentiation and the financial style showed a comprehensive correction. Therefore, under the recent increase of market volatility and the acceleration of hot spots, we suggest to maintain balanced allocation and continue to be optimistic about the stable growth chain in the short term, As the benign adjustment period of growth style is coming to an end, we can actively layout the valuation market in the third stage of growth style in the medium term.
Specifically, we can focus on three directions and two themes.
Main line 1: the steady growth effect is expected to exceed the market expectation, pay attention to the steady growth chain under the poor expectation, and focus on new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and power grid construction, as well as related opportunities such as upstream and downstream of real estate and banks;
Main line 2: the benign adjustment of growth is coming to an end, and actively layout the market in the third stage of growth, especially the growth main line represented by dual carbon and domestic substitution of semiconductors, as well as communication, computer and military industry under the growth diffusion; Main line 3: in terms of consumption, we will continue to focus on travel service consumption such as tourism, airport, catering and leisure services benefiting from the rescue policy in the short term, and focus on the opportunities of mandatory consumer goods such as dairy products, condiments and food processing with price increase as the main line in the medium and long term; In terms of themes, we will continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
With the gradual effect of the "steady growth" policy and the bottom recovery of China's economic growth, the "emotional bottom" may depend on the strength and rhythm of the steady growth policy in the middle of the first quarter, while the "growth bottom" is expected to appear from the first quarter to the second quarter.
In terms of style, after the early adjustment, the growth style is less likely to fall further and stabilize in the near future. However, combined with the current economic and policy environment, as well as the valuation and position, we believe that the growth style may not be in time for significant intervention, and the time point for the market to return to the growth style is preliminarily expected to be around the beginning of the second quarter.
Industry configuration suggestions: steady growth style may continue, and manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
1) areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes or efforts, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.), brokerage finance, etc;
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc;
3) pay periodic attention to the aviation airport, catering tourism, offline entertainment and other sectors greatly affected by the epidemic;
4) the manufacturing growth sectors with large growth last year, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been adjusted, but it may not be the time to fully intervene.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the cashing time of the two sessions is gradually approaching. Pay attention to "three lows and one change" in stock selection
At present, we are in the policy intensive landing period, and "steady growth" has ushered in a number of favorable policies, but on the other hand, we should also note that the time point for the implementation of the two sessions is gradually approaching, waiting for the two sessions in the future, tracking policies and gradually fulfilling them.
Be vigilant against external risks such as continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks.
Focus on configuration:
① new infrastructure represented by "counting East and counting West";
② traditional infrastructure represented by banks, real estate and building materials;
③ expectation of consumption recovery represented by food and tax exemption;
④ price rising varieties represented by coal and oil chains. In stock selection, we pay attention to "three lows and one change", that is, on the basis of low, undervalued and low congestion, there are fundamental marginal improvement expectations, and a higher dividend yield is also expected to provide better defensive.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : grasp the undervalued value of financial real estate and repair the bargain hunting layout of "small high tech"
Grasp the repair of undervalued financial and real estate, and bargain hunting layout of "small high-tech". For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : short-term financial real estate is dominant, and it is expected to switch to new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure in the future
Core conclusion: ① the adjustment background and incentives since December 21 are similar to those of 21q1, and the disk indicators show that the adjustment has been relatively sufficient.
② learning from history, the catalyst for the value to growth of this round of spring market may come from the policy and the performance forecast of the first quarterly report.
③ this year is similar to 2012. It is a volatile market. The best window period in the first half of the year is the stable growth spring market, and the short-term financial real estate is dominant. Among them, we think the securities companies deserve the most attention. It is expected to switch to the new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure in the future.
Specific to the industry, we believe that we should pay close attention to the focus of the steady growth policy, that is, the field of low-carbon economy and digital economy.
In terms of low-carbon economy, we focus on wind power, photovoltaic and new power grids, and the prosperity of these fields continues to increase. Special attention is paid to UHV in the new power grid.
In terms of digital economy, we can focus on cloud computing and data centers that benefit from the construction of computing infrastructure, network security that continuously releases demand, and 5g that benefits from the construction of base stations. These areas are also the driving direction of the current new infrastructure policy.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the "good start" of the year of the tiger is expected to continue. At present, it is still stable growth
The "good start" of the year of the tiger is expected to continue. At present, steady growth is still better. The logic of recovery after the epidemic continues to deduce, but the winning rate of growth is also improving. In 22 years, under the background of declining profits and rising US debt Center, the low peg strategy will prevail. Changes in the three major factors continued to support the A-share after the festival.
In the medium term, A-Shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed's faster pace of interest rate hike + table contraction, and the realization effect of China's steady growth. US bond interest rate affects growth style, and steady growth affects value style. We expect that the steady growth policy will still be intensively verified between the current and the two sessions, but the winning rate of PEG growth is gradually improving at the right side of the social finance inflection point T3. From the cross validation of the comparison methods of the three major industries, the industry with the main line of "stable growth" in the current low area is the best.
focus on steady growth + growth agreed by PEG + recovery after the epidemic, and continue the balanced allocation of high region and low region:
\u3000\u30001. The intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon new cycle" in low-lying areas (real estate, building materials, coal chemical industry);
\u3000\u30002. Technology track stocks gradually agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle, wind power photovoltaic, digital economy);
\u3000\u30003. Post epidemic service consumption repair (Hotel, aviation).
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : it is expected to usher in a rebound in the growth stage in April and continue to tap the comparative advantage of "three lows"
At present, investors are more concerned about the rebound of growth stocks. If we define the time dimension of the rebound as 3-5 weeks, when will the rebound window come?
1. It is expected to usher in a growth stage rebound in April
We expect that the rebound window of growth stocks may be from late March to April. The reasons are as follows: first, from a macro perspective, April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates; Second, from a meso perspective, the successive disclosure of the first quarter forecast in 2022 is expected to boost market sentiment.
2. Continue to tap the comparative advantages of "three low"
For the "three low" sectors with undervalued value, low share price and low position, we investigated the marginal changes of fundamentals from top to bottom. We sorted out the allocation clues such as stable growth, travel chain and high dividend. Combined with the industry point of view, the relevant companies are:
Steady growth: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ;
Travel chain: Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) etc;
High Dividend: Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , China Mobile, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) etc.
Guosheng Securities: the policy strength continues to rise, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1
The widening trend of credit conditions has been confirmed, the policy intensity continues to rise, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. Continue to recommend high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials;
Market sentiment is expected to continue to pick up, recommending the computer driven by the concept of communication and digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development;
Household appliances with relatively low valuation in the real estate cycle and tourism trips with the concept of dilemma reversal.
