This week, the three major A-share indexes collectively turned red on the weekly line, the Shanghai index rose again and approached 3500 points, and the gem index recovered 2800 points. After the market stabilized and rebounded, the original "stable growth" sector continued to heat up, and the growth style also ushered in a phased repair market.
Can the rebound of A-Shares continue in the future? In the view of institutions, the current market does not have the conditions for systematic decline. When the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future performance; In terms of allocation, in addition to continuing to grasp the main line of "stable growth", it is suggested to gradually layout the large consumption sector.
major events affecting future investment
precise strategy
revitalize the industrial service industry and make a combined fist
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the steady growth of industrial economy and several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which proposed to speed up the construction of major new infrastructure projects, promote the continuous decline of real loan interest rate on the basis of the substantial reduction in the early stage, and do a good job in iron ore Ensure the supply and price of important raw materials and primary products such as chemical fertilizer, guide Internet platform enterprises such as takeout to further reduce the service fee standard of catering merchants, and accurately implement epidemic prevention and control measures.
tips of the inter ministerial joint meeting on the disposal of illegal fund-raising
prevent illegal fund-raising in the name of "meta universe"
According to the news of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on February 18, the inter ministerial Joint Conference Office for the disposal of illegal fund-raising issued the "tips on preventing the risk of illegal fund-raising in the name of" yuancosmos ", which proposed that recently, some criminals rubbed hot spots and absorbed funds under the names of" yuancosmos investment project "and" yuancosmos chain Tour ", which were suspected of illegal fund-raising, fraud and other illegal and criminal activities.
the CSRC will publish the reply to the proposal of the national two sessions in 2021
On February 18, the CSRC website published 37 replies to the suggestions of the fourth session of the 13th National People's Congress and the proposals of the fourth session of the 13th National Committee of the CPPCC. In the relevant reply, the CSRC said that it would promote the medium and long-term assessment of public funds, various pensions and insurance funds; Support qualified new energy vehicle enterprises to be listed and financed in the capital market; Steadily resolve bond credit risks; Strictly crack down on illegal acts in the bond market; Support qualified securities companies to carry out cross-border business according to law.
institutional outlook on investment
\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ：
policy overweight promotes market diffusion and actively distributes high-quality blue chips
In the near future, the coverage of stable growth policies has been expanding, and the future policies will be refined, which is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption; In addition, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on traditional industries that underestimate the value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced. As the policy bottom, market bottom and emotional bottom have been confirmed in turn, it is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions".
\u3000\u3000 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ：
don't be pessimistic about the future performance. Continue to pay attention to the "steady growth" style
Under the background of relatively low market and low expectation, the "steady growth" is strengthened, and there are more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. The continuous implementation of policy details and the improvement of forward-looking indicators are conducive to the improvement of growth expectation, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the subsequent market performance. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the "steady growth" style, including infrastructure, real estate and related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; The growth style may not have reached the time of significant intervention, and the time point for the market to return to the growth style is preliminarily expected to be around the beginning of the second quarter.
\u3000\u3000 Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ：
continue to grasp steady growth and gradually distribute consumption
Value will still dominate the stage, and the opportunities for growth, especially for track companies, still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite. As the inflection point of global liquidity has emerged, we should pay attention to the direction of molecular profit reversal or marginal improvement. In terms of allocation, we will continue to grasp steady growth and gradually distribute consumption, including coal, steel, transportation, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs), household appliances, consumer services, securities companies, banks, etc.
Anxin Securities:
the current market does not have the conditions for systematic decline
At present, the market is at the bottom of the strategy and does not have the conditions for systematic decline. The important allocation window period in mid February has been gradually verified; In terms of operation, investors are advised to stick to their positions as the first priority and avoid frequent stock exchange operations. For the targets that have risen more in the previous old infrastructure sector, it is not suitable to catch up; From the perspective of sustainability, the current time point proposal can focus on the large consumption sector with improved fundamentals and sufficient adjustment under the continuous promotion of steady growth.
Dacheng Fund:
remain optimistic about currency and credit data
The rebound of A-Shares is expected to continue, mainly due to the fact that the global market has largely reflected the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve in the short term. In January, the exceeding expectation of social finance can boost market confidence to a certain extent. Although the total amount of social finance is good, there is still room for further improvement in the structure. The sustainability of wide credit still needs to be tested. In the future, we will focus on whether the medium and long-term loans of enterprises can start to increase steadily. When the policy clearly turns to steady growth, we can remain optimistic about the monetary and credit data. In the future, with the gradual realization of wide credit, the financial, real estate and infrastructure industry chains will have relative benefits.
ABC Huili Fund:
balanced allocation of "steady growth + high prosperity"
Under the current tone of steady growth, the effect of fiscal power has begun to appear, and production has improved. It is expected that the A-share market will continue to fluctuate in the medium term. It is suggested that equity investment should be balanced in the two directions of "steady growth + high prosperity". In terms of steady growth, new green infrastructure and state-owned enterprise reform, which take into account structural adjustment and steady growth, may be the best direction. In terms of high prosperity, new energy, new generation information and communication technology, high-end manufacturing and military industry can continue to pay attention.
