With the arrival of the performance disclosure window period, the number of listed companies that pre display the operating transcripts of 2021 is increasing.
According to the statistics of the economic observer, as of February 17, more than 2548 of the more than 4000 A-share listed companies have released the performance express of 2021. Overall, 1159 listed companies issued slightly increased or pre increased transcripts, accounting for 45.49%; 289 companies turned losses into profits, accounting for 11.3%. It is worth noting that among the more than 2500 companies that disclosed the performance express, 690 enterprises predicted operating losses in 2021, accounting for 27%, of which 371 enterprises announced losses for the first time, which has been at a high level in recent ten years.
From the perspective of industries, the cyclical industry has warmed up. On the whole, the net profits of electronic communication, chemical industry, coal and non-ferrous metals have increased gratifying, while the real estate industry, which has frequently exploded since the second half of last year, has suffered a performance Waterloo. In addition, the performance of software services, retail, infrastructure, electric power and agriculture, especially pig raising enterprises, is under pressure.
In the past two months, hotels and catering, architectural decoration, coal mining and processing, road and railway transportation and other sectors have led the increase, with an increase of more than 10% in the past 60 days. These sectors have a good performance in the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report.
Nearly 30% of enterprises lost money
Among the 2548 listed companies that have published the performance forecast, 1476 companies have positive performance forecast, accounting for 58%, including 954 companies with pre increase, 289 companies with turnaround, 205 companies with slight increase and 28 companies with continued profit; There were 1072 companies with negative performance forecast, accounting for 42%, including 371 companies with first loss, 319 companies with continued loss, 300 companies with pre reduction and 82 companies with slight reduction.
According to the data of CICC Research Report, 1464 listed companies, 1032 listed companies and 20 listed companies with positive, negative and uncertain performance forecasts in the 2020 annual report respectively accounted for 58%, 41% and 1% of the listed companies that disclosed the current performance forecasts respectively. In comparison, the positive and negative distribution of the performance forecast in 2021 is basically the same as that in 2020, and the negative proportion is still at a high level in recent years.
It is worth noting that while 58% of enterprises hand over positive transcripts, the scale of loss making enterprises is expanding. The data show that both the number of losses of 690 companies and the proportion of 27% have reached a new high in recent years, and the pressure on corporate profits is obvious. In terms of the absolute amount of loss, according to the upper and lower limits of the amount of loss in advance, the total loss of 690 enterprises in advance is 513.9-619.7 billion yuan, with an average loss of 745-898 million yuan per enterprise.
According to the above data of CICC Research Report, in 2016-2017, due to the comprehensive improvement of profits and a sharp decline in loss in the middle and upper reaches of the industry driven by the supply side reform, the proportion of enterprises with performance forecast losses under the erosion of large-scale goodwill impairment in 2018 more than doubled compared with 2017. The exposure to goodwill impairment risk in 2019 continued, superimposed with the macroeconomic downturn Affected by factors such as intensified industry competition, the number and proportion of loss making enterprises continued to grow in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2021, the number and proportion of pre loss enterprises reached a new high in more than a decade, and the proportion even exceeded the level of 25% during the financial crisis in 2008, indicating that the group of listed companies with prominent profit pressure is still further expanding.
who is losing money?
Among the 2548 listed companies that announced the performance forecast, the telecommunications service industry, real estate and public utilities were the hardest hit areas. The total proportion of loss making enterprises in the industry pre disclosure was more than 40%, and 50% of the telecommunications service industry reported losses. In addition, loss making enterprises in daily consumption and optional consumption also account for more than 35%.
Since the second half of last year, the real estate industry has exploded frequently. Therefore, the positive proportion of industry performance forecast has declined, the negative proportion and loss proportion have increased, and the net profit attributable to the parent has changed from positive to negative. According to the data of CICC Research Report, the loss amount of the industry accounted for about 10% of the net assets at the end of last year. The reasons for the loss mainly include the decline of industry prosperity, the reduction of the number of completed projects, the decline of sales profit space, the provision for the impairment of inventories and long-term receivables, the impact of the epidemic on commercial real estate projects, the increase of financial expenses, the impact of other non real estate businesses, etc; The public utility industry continues to weaken, and the number of enterprises with losses in advance has increased significantly. In addition to the impact of business level factors such as the decrease in the number of newly signed orders and the slowdown of project construction progress, more than 80% of the losses in advance mentioned the provision for asset impairment in the announcement, which may be partly related to the decline in the collection quality of real estate customers or even overdue.
It can be seen from the pre disclosure data of annual report performance that the proportion of loss making enterprises has increased, and the pressure on enterprise profitability is prominent, showing obvious industry characteristics.
In addition to the real estate industry, the pig industry and shipping and other sectors greatly affected by the epidemic are also facing great pressure in 2021.
Specifically, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) took the position of "loss king" of A-Shares in 2021 with an estimated loss of - 43.3 billion to - 42.3 billion yuan. In addition, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) (- 39.1 billion to - 33.1 billion), Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (- 18.2 billion to - 19.7 billion), Air China Limited(601111) (- 17 billion to - 145 billion), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (- 13.8 billion to - 13 billion), China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) (- 12.2 billion to - 14.7 billion), China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) (13.5 billion to - 11 billion to -), Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) (- 12.037 billion) Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (- 11.7 billion yuan to - 9.8 billion yuan) and Baiji shenzhou-u (- 11.012 billion yuan to - 8.542 billion yuan) became the top ten companies with the highest amount of advance losses, setting a new high in the history of A-share losses.
On January 28, 2022, the three major airlines issued performance forecasts one after another. Not surprisingly, the three companies handed over more than 10 billion loss transcripts. According to the report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021, the global aviation industry is expected to have a net loss of US $51.8 billion in 2021 due to the epidemic.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) said in the announcement that the company recognized the investment loss and accrued the impairment of the long-term equity investment of chunhang Japan, an associate, in the same period of last year, resulting in the loss of the company in 2020; In 2021, under the policy environment of "dynamic clearing", the epidemic situation in China was significantly controlled, and local governments implemented the normalized prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Since the end of the second quarter, Delta and Omicron mutant strains have caused a sharp increase in overseas import pressure, and the epidemic situation in China has been repeated for many times. The company's main operation bases in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Shijiazhuang, Shenyang, Lanzhou, Ningbo, Yangzhou, Dalian and other places have been affected to varying degrees, making the company's daily operation under continuous pressure. However, this has improved compared with 2020, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) said that in 2021, the company's available seat kilometers, passenger transport volume and passenger seat rate increased by 9.6%, 14.6% and 3.2% respectively compared with 2020. At the same time, the unit cost of non oil decreased year-on-year, and the revenue of passenger kilometers also increased year-on-year.
The pig cycle, which has lasted for 44 months, has not yet brought hope to relevant concept stocks. In addition to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) (pre loss of 8.6 billion to 9.6 billion yuan) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) (pre loss of 3.5 billion to 4 billion yuan) also disclosed the transcripts of huge losses. Some analysts said that according to the current reduction rhythm of sow production capacity, pork supply and demand may not return to a more balanced state until the first quarter of 2023.
who's warming up?
Which industries will perform better than expected? The market has made a choice. In the past five trading days, metals, materials, medical services, education, environmental protection and other industries have led the increase, which is also reflected in the performance forecast.
According to the data, stocks exceeding expectations are mainly distributed in materials, coal, electronics, chemical industry, power equipment and other industries. Among the companies with positive performance, more than 50% are expected to be in the fields of materials, energy and finance. In addition, more than 40% are expected to be in the fields of health care, information technology and industry.
In 2021, the profitability of the cycle sector generally improved under the circumstances of economic recovery, rebound in demand and rise in raw material prices. However, the differentiation trend of performance in the fourth quarter increased. The annual reports of most companies in the coal sector met or exceeded expectations, and the upward momentum of performance continued, while the performance forecast of more than half of the enterprises in the steel sector was lower than expected.
When analyzing the performance of the industry, the research report said that the prices of some raw materials fell in the fourth quarter of 2021, which alleviated the cost pressure of the midstream manufacturing sector to a certain extent. High end manufacturing such as power equipment and mechanical equipment maintained profit growth. Under the dual impact of cost pressure and frustration on the demand side caused by the recurrence of the epidemic, the growth rate of the food and beverage industry slowed down, and the internal performance of the consumer sector also showed obvious differentiation. In the epidemic, the profit growth of the pharmaceutical industry was the best, and both emerging and traditional household appliances in the household appliance industry contributed to the performance increment.
In 2021, the performance of the securities sector is not ugly. Among the nine securities companies that have disclosed the performance forecast, all are expected to be happy, and the change range of Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) net profit is as high as 100%.
Since last July, the performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector has been differentiated. Among the 238 companies in the health care industry, 48.2% of the enterprises' performance increased in advance or slightly, and 25% of the enterprises reported losses in advance.
From the perspective of enterprise nature, the profits of state-owned enterprises have improved, the profits of non-state-owned enterprises have weakened, and the differentiation between different enterprise nature has increased. According to the research report data of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , the net profit attributable to the parent company of state-owned enterprises in 2021 increased by 104% year-on-year, which was significantly improved from - 16% in 2019 and - 20% in 2020. The predicted net profit in 2021 / net assets at the end of last year was 7%, higher than 2% in 2019 and 5% in 2020. The year-on-year change range of non-state-owned enterprises' performance forecast net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was - 117%, which continued to weaken compared with 17% in 2019 and - 64% in 2020.
According to the analysis of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Report, from the perspective of sector distribution with performance exceeding expectations, individual stocks exceeding expectations (i.e. companies with performance forecast net profit greater than consensus expectations) are mainly distributed in coal, banking, electronics, chemical industry and power equipment industries. From the perspective of style, the performance of upstream cycle sector is better than midstream manufacturing and downstream consumption. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the high-end manufacturing performance of upstream cycle and midstream also continued to increase year-on-year. The trend of profit pressure of midstream and downstream industries is slowing down, but the differentiation of internal performance is still obvious.
