Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has continued to fluctuate and adjust, and the popular tracks in the early stage have “stalled”. The tourism sector once forgotten by the market has stepped out of the independent market, and many tourism stocks have increased by more than 20% this year. At the same time, tourism related funds have also been warmly sought after by various funds. The share of Fuguo CSI tourism theme ETF has increased by nearly 200% since the beginning of the year.
It seems that the valuation of the tourism sector has been at a relatively low point in the early stage due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, and it seems that the valuation of 1236} institutions has continued to improve in the future. However, after a round of general rise in the sector, the trend of individual stocks may usher in differentiation.
tourism ETF “sucks money” against the market
Tourism stocks have been active since 2022. As of February 18, the China Securities tourism index has increased by 8.27% this year. From the performance of individual stocks, Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) and Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) both rose the limit for three consecutive days on February 10, February 11 and February 14, Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) rose the limit for two consecutive trading days on February 11 and February 14. These stocks have appeared on the dragon and tiger list recently.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of February 18, Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) rose 67.5% this year, China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) rose 32.6%, and individual stocks such as Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Caesar tourism, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) rose more than 20%.
Tourism related ETFs have also received considerable capital inflows. At present, there are two tourism ETFs on the market, namely Fuguo China Securities tourism theme ETF and Huaxia China Securities tourism theme ETF As of February 18, the latest share of rich country China Securities tourism theme ETFs was 1.355 billion, an increase of nearly 200% compared with 452 million at the end of last year; Compared with the end of last year, the latest share of China Securities tourism theme ETF also increased significantly by 22.7%.
For the recent rebound in tourism stocks, fan Kunxiang, manager of HSBC Jinxin consumer bonus fund, said that the consumer service sector is mainly composed of offline scenic spots, hotels, tourism services and other companies. Since the beginning of the year, scenic spots and offline tourism companies have increased significantly. “We understand that this is due to the pursuit of funds for the logic of offline repair after the epidemic.”
Fan Kunxiang further said that the typical characteristics of assets such as scenic hotels and tourism companies are high odds and low certainty. After the impact of the epidemic for two years, it is inevitable that the short-term performance of relevant companies will be under pressure, but the market has fully expected the impact of the epidemic. At present, these epidemic damaged targets are in the three low states of low market value, low Pb valuation and low allocation of institutions, so they have high odds.
industry inflection point has reached?
So, after a long period of silence, has tourism stocks ushered in an inflection point?
According to the latest research report released by East Asia Qianhai securities, according to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the golden week of the Spring Festival in 2022, 251 million Chinese tourists visited the country and China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan. After the repeated impact of the epidemic in the second half of 2021, the recovery process of tourism was once blocked, and the recovery rhythm of the Spring Festival in 2022 began to pick up gradually.
\u3000\u3000 “The current valuation level of the tourism sector is relatively low. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, there is enough room for the valuation to rise. The travel data of the Spring Festival reflects the rise of people’s willingness to travel and travel. At present, the tourism industry is at a relatively low valuation due to the repeated epidemic in the early stage. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the social service and tourism sectors are expected to hit the bottom and rise. It is estimated that The value of the future has broad lifting space. ” East Asia Qianhai securities research report said.
Cao Ludi, fund manager of Fuguo CSI tourism themed ETF, said that the data showed that since the second quarter of last year, the growth rate of net profit in the tourism sector showed a bottom recovery and a V-shaped reversal trend; At present, China’s willingness to travel abroad has increased, which is also one of the factors contributing to the rise in crude oil prices. It can also be deduced that the market’s expectation of post epidemic repair may still be relatively high.
\u3000\u3000 “The increase in the number of tourists and tourism consumption is expected to improve the fundamental performance of Listed Companies in the tourism industry, and then drive the stock price. In the future, in the long run, the direction of China’s economy from high-speed development to high-quality development remains the same. The probability is still that consumption and high-end manufacturing are the main means to drive the economy. Then the consumer industry represented by tourism is worthy of long-term development Attention. ” Cao Ludi said.
At the current time point, fan Kunxiang, manager of HSBC Jinxin consumer bonus fund, believes that after a round of repair and general rise, the tourism sector will begin to divide gradually and the alpha of individual stocks will be strengthened. Alpha of individual stocks is reflected in two aspects: one is whether the company has carried out effective cost optimization and improved its operating efficiency under the impact of the epidemic; The other is whether the industry pattern has been optimized in the context of the epidemic. “We believe there are still opportunities for further exploration in the future.”
