The steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the “short board”. The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market. The concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The “three bottoms” have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market and actively layout. First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption. Secondly, the main line of stable growth in the early stage focuses more on traditional industries with undervalued value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of stable growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of stable growth will be more balanced. Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”.
the steady growth policy has been comprehensively increased, the service industry rescue has made up for the “weakness”
1) the policy coverage has been continuously expanded, and manufacturing upgrading and new infrastructure have contributed to steady progress in investment. after the central economic work conference, the early-stage policies focused more on government driven infrastructure and stabilizing real estate. Relevant policies were introduced continuously, and infrastructure and real estate assumed more counter cyclical functions. With the continuous progress of the work, the policy coverage has spread rapidly, and more and more fields such as manufacturing upgrading, double carbon and new infrastructure have been involved. This week, the national development and Reform Commission and other 12 ministries and commissions issued several policies on promoting the steady growth of the industrial economy, proposed to accelerate the implementation of the five-year action plan for improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and the major projects of the national special plan in the manufacturing field, promote the strengthening and supplement of the manufacturing chain, strengthen the cultivation of “specialized and special” small and medium-sized enterprises, and emphasized the construction of photovoltaic wind power New infrastructure directions in many fields, including “counting from the east to the west” project and 5g base stations. The comprehensive diffusion of policies means that under the new macroeconomic situation, steady growth is no longer limited to the relatively single traditional infrastructure and real estate in the past, but the joint promotion of structural adjustment and stabilizing the basic market. The signal transmitted by the policy documents plays an important role in stimulating the investor sentiment of growth style preference.
2) the rescue measures of the service industry accurately point to the short board of consumption, and the future policies will be continuously refined to promote faster stabilization of consumption. this week, the national development and Reform Commission and other 14 ministries and commissions jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry. The document continued the previous policy tone, promoted the rescue of the service industry with tax reduction and fee reduction and financial support as the main focus, and focused on refining the policy support direction for specific industries damaged by the epidemic. From the current economic indicators, the performance of consumption related data is relatively weaker, reflecting the obvious structural characteristics of the current weak economy. Since it is difficult to judge the follow-up development path and critical time point of the epidemic, the introduction of clear support and relief policies will help to improve the stability of the operation of the service industry damaged by the epidemic under high uncertainty and the income prospects of employees. Although the effect of the rescue of the service industry remains to be seen, the direction of the policy is clear, the signal released is clear, and there is great room and flexibility for overweight, which plays an important role in stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the service industry rescue policy has made a clear statement on the epidemic prevention and control measures, requiring “resolutely prevent and avoid the two tendencies of ‘loose prevention and control’ and ‘excessive prevention and control’, and effectively restore and maintain the normal order of the development of the service industry”. This is the first time to make clear principled requirements for the epidemic prevention and control measures of various regions from the perspective of stabilizing the economy. With the normalization and accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, we expect consumption to stabilize and recover significantly in the second quarter.
policy overweight promotes market diffusion and steady growth the value and growth style in the main line are more balanced
1) the main line of stable growth in the early stage focuses more on traditional industries with undervalued value. from the perspective of industry dimension, the industries with the highest cumulative growth since January are banking, construction, consumer services, transportation and steel, with range increases of 7.5%, 7.2%, 2.0%, 1.5% and 1.5% respectively, focusing on industries with stable growth and previously damaged by the epidemic. From the perspective of valuation style, after all A-Shares are divided into five groups according to the valuation from large to small, the average increase of each group since January is – 14.2%, – 13.1%, – 9.5%, – 6.5% and 2.8% respectively. The undervalued style is obviously dominant. On the whole, the early steady growth policy focused on infrastructure first and real estate relay. After the sudden collapse of the track sector at the beginning of the year, the risk aversion was also rising, and funds poured into traditional value styles and related industries. However, from the perspective of market value style, after all A-Shares are divided into five groups according to market value from large to small, the average increase of each group since January is – 8.3%, – 8.2%, – 6.2%, – 4.6% and – 0.2% respectively. The small cap style is obviously dominant. We think this is more due to the sharp adjustment of institutional heavy positions. With these growth, large cap stocks enter the value range, We believe that the subsequent market capitalization style will also be more balanced.
2) after the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified and the growth and value style will be more balanced. recently, the steady growth policy has gradually spread from infrastructure first and real estate relay to new infrastructure, manufacturing upgrading and service industry rescue. The policy has a wider coverage, which has also changed investors’ wrong expectation that steady growth is only limited to infrastructure and real estate, and stimulated the preference of some growth stocks for investors. In addition, after the adjustment since January, the valuation of some leading companies in the growth sector has also entered a reasonable range. Taking the companies mainly covered by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department as the sample, the predicted valuation calculated by the overall method of semiconductor, military industry, new power system, new energy and intelligent vehicles in 2022 has been reduced to 43 times, 31 times, 19 times and 38 times PE respectively, corresponding to the overall predicted profit growth rate of 35.0%, 43.0%, 15.9% and 52.3% in 2022 respectively; In 2023, these industries predicted that the valuation would further decline to 34 times, 23 times, 16 times and 27 times, corresponding to the expected profit growth rate of 30%, 36%, 12% and 41%, which has been out of the bubble valuation area as a whole. In the first quarter, these growth industries may also encounter the aggravation of internal capital game, the decline of external market, the impact of valuation anchor and other factors, but industry leading companies have undoubtedly fallen out of the long-term allocation value. With the spread of the main policy line, we expect that the market growth style has also passed the most adverse stage, and the market growth and value style will be more balanced.
centralized position reduction and position adjustment of investors is nearing the end of , and the “three bottoms” have been confirmed
1) in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure eased rapidly, and the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end.
after the festival, the sharp decline of leading stocks in heavy positions of Ningde, Dongcai and other institutions means that some investors have begun to sell the varieties of bottom positions, and the forced selling of the market is coming to an end. We learned that some private equity institutions had been facing rapid withdrawal of net worth and had obvious passive position reduction behavior. However, from the research of nearly a week, the overall position of active private equity has stabilized at 70% ~ 75% compared with that before the Spring Festival, which is at the low position except the third quarter of 2018, and the centralized position reduction has been completed. The public offering positions we calculated have increased slightly, but from the distribution of net value changes, the volatility of yield of partial track products that achieved high returns last year has been significantly less than that in January in the first two weeks of February. The correlation with growth weight indexes such as gem has decreased, and the correlation with blue chip weight indexes such as SSE 50 has increased. It can be seen that the positions are more balanced.
2) the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, and the relative attractiveness of RMB assets has further improved. after the Spring Festival, China’s resumption of production and work has made steady progress, the combination of stable economic policies has been making continuous efforts and the coverage has been expanding, and the market’s expectations for the macro economy have improved. The impact of overseas disturbance factors on A-Shares is also significantly weakened. The US CPI data this week exceeded expectations. Negative information from Russia and Ukraine broke out on February 17, but A-Shares remained resilient the next day after the decline in overseas markets. This week, the configured foreign capital continued to flow in steadily, with a net inflow of 9.1 billion yuan in a single week, and the inflow scale showed a trend of increasing day by day. In addition to the stock market, domestic RMB bonds also continue to be popular with overseas funds. According to the official data of bondcom Co., Ltd., bondcom ushered in a “good start” in January. The transaction volume of northbound reached 780.7 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction exceeded 41.1 billion yuan, a record high. At the end of January, the scale of RMB bonds held by overseas institutions reached 4.1 trillion yuan, The net increase was 66.3 billion yuan month on month, maintaining a net increase for 10 consecutive months. Foreign capital continued to increase the flexibility of RMB assets over exports, and the RMB also remained strong. Since the beginning of 2022, the US dollar against RMB has risen from 6.3526 to 6.3256, a new high since May 2018.
3) the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. since the central economic work conference released a strong signal of stabilizing the economy from the total level in December last year, the market ushered in the end of the policy. After Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the finance office, made a speech in mid January and central bank officials emphasized “avoiding credit collapse”, the end of the policy was confirmed again, and the market formed a consensus on stabilizing growth. After the new year’s day, the sudden collapse of the track sector triggered a series of negative capital feedback. Before the Spring Festival, there were centralized closing positions and leverage reduction of some quantitative products, causing a large number of small market value stocks with weak liquidity to fall sharply, superimposing the holiday effect. Before the spring Festival, there was a general market decline caused by purely capital factors, which means that the market bottom has also appeared and confirmed. One week after the Spring Festival, high-quality white horse blue chips in some growth industries were sold in panic. However, as the steady growth policy continued to increase and spread, the market spontaneously stabilized this week, and the response to overseas Russian Ukrainian problems and inflation exceeding expectations began to be passivated. At the same time, the position of active funds has stopped declining, and the position of relative income funds has tended to be balanced, It means that the emotional bottom of the market has also appeared and confirmed.
stick to the main line of steady growth and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions” of
The steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight to promote the spread of the main line market. The policy bottom, market bottom and emotional bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is recommended that investors stick to the main line of “steady growth” and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”. Specifically include: 1) varieties with relatively low fundamentals, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobile and parts , photovoltaic wind power equipment , and aviation and Hotel with low fundamentals; 2) For the varieties with relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers , building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, and communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grid and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, and data center and cloud infrastructure benefiting from “computing from the East and the west”, as well as Internet leader driven by the content of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of the decline of some leaders, as well as fine chemical enterprises with the ability to launch new businesses such as new materials.
risk factors
Global epidemic recurrence; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China’s economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened more than expected.
