The stock index rose 0.8% this week. How will A-Shares operate next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors' reference.
CICC strategy: A-share "steady growth" is still in force
Recently, the overall market shows signs of stabilization, but the transaction has not yet returned to the level before the Spring Festival. During the week, there was an obvious switch in style, and the early correction was obviously partial to the growth style, such as the stabilization and rebound of new energy, scientific and technological hardware and medicine. Some "stable growth" related sectors fell slightly, and some investors were tangled with the main line of the future market. We believe that under the background of relatively low market and low expectation, the "steady growth" is strengthened and there are more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. The continuous implementation of policy details and the improvement of forward-looking indicators are conducive to the improvement of growth expectation, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the subsequent market performance. With the gradual effect of the "steady growth" policy and the bottom recovery of China's economic growth, the "emotional bottom" may depend on the strength and rhythm of the steady growth policy in the middle of the first quarter, while the "growth bottom" is expected to appear from the first quarter to the second quarter. In terms of style, after the early adjustment, the growth style is less likely to fall further and stabilize in the near future. However, combined with the current economic and policy environment, as well as the valuation and position, we believe that the growth style may not have the time to intervene significantly, and the time point for the market to return to the growth style is preliminarily expected to be around the beginning of the second quarter.
CITIC strategy: Policy overweight to promote market diffusion
The steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the "short board". The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market. The concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The "three bottoms" have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market and actively layout. First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption. Secondly, the main line of stable growth in the early stage focuses more on traditional industries with undervalued value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of stable growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of stable growth will be more balanced. Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions".
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy: stable word first tracking policy
"Steady growth" is approaching the time point of the two sessions, and external risks still need to be paid attention to. This week, we again observed that "steady growth" policies have been introduced one after another. The national standing committee meeting held on February 14 confirmed the measures to promote steady industrial growth and rescue the service industry, and the three major documents on steady growth were issued in the following days. Many real estate policies have also shown signs of relaxation. "Steady growth" ushered in a number of favorable policies, but it is also gradually approaching the time point of the two sessions. External risks still need attention. We believe that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of starting a continuous interest rate increase cycle after March. Compared with 2015, it is more similar to 1994. The yield of 10Y US bonds may not peak and fall after March. The pressure of subsequent inflation and interest rate increase is still large. Pay close attention to the trend of RMB exchange rate. Meanwhile, the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine may also have a new impact on global risky assets.
Monarch strategy: steady growth and gradual rise of consumption in transit
General trend study and judgment: Valuation repair, step up. The market fluctuated upward this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% to close to 3500 points. We believe that the market is in a weak repair state before steady growth takes effect. 1) Overseas, after the CPI of the United States rose higher than expected in January, the market has traded the expectation of a 50bp interest rate increase in March. Although the FOMC minutes in January did not specify the tightening path, the market's expectation of raising interest rates more than 6 times during the year was not loosened. 2) In China, inflation data reflect weak domestic demand, stable growth has not yet achieved obvious results, and monetary policy is still in a loose window. 3) Since the beginning of the year, the median return of public funds represented by active partial stock type has been - 9%. The poor profit-making effect is also difficult to drive the market risk appetite. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will accelerate the promotion and force, and the expected upward revision of the infrastructure real estate chain will catalyze the recovery process.
GF strategy: continue to grasp the "good start" rebound of the year of the tiger
The "good start" of the year of the tiger is expected to continue. At present, steady growth is still better. The logic of recovery after the epidemic continues to deduce, but the winning rate of growth is also improving. In 22 years, under the background of declining profits and rising US debt Center, the low peg strategy will prevail. Changes in the three major factors continued to support the A-share after the festival. In the medium term, A-Shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed's faster pace of interest rate hike + table contraction, and the realization effect of China's steady growth. US bond interest rate affects growth style, and steady growth affects value style. We expect that the steady growth policy will still be intensively verified between the current and the two sessions, but the winning rate of PEG growth is gradually improving at the right side of the social finance inflection point T3. From the cross validation of the comparison methods of the three major industries, the industry with the main line of "stable growth" in the current low area is the best. Focus on steady growth + growth acceptable to peg + recovery after the epidemic, and continue the balanced allocation of high and low areas: 1 The intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon new cycle" in low-lying areas (real estate, building materials, coal chemical industry); 2. Technology track stocks gradually agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle, wind power photovoltaic, digital economy); 3. Post epidemic service consumption repair (Hotel, aviation).
Western strategy: prosperity is the best defense
Market sentiment has gradually stabilized, and the market can still be more optimistic in the first half of the year. Two weeks after the Spring Festival, the market has initially shown signs of stabilizing. From the market sentiment index we track, if the market sentiment recovers, it can often drive the market to pick up quarterly. In terms of style, we suggested last week that the trading enthusiasm of undervalued stocks was overheated, which is similar to the crazy pursuit of overvalued stocks in the market last August. Of course, this does not mean the end of the "steady growth" market - in fact, the mainstream track market last year continued to the end of November after the huge earthquake in August - but the focus of the follow-up market will return to the boom change of the industry again from the simple valuation level. Even in the undervalued sector, if the future boom can continue to cash in, it still has investment value.
Guosheng strategy: how to rank steady growth in the next stage?
After a round of overall repair, we believe that the internal order of steady growth in the next stage is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle. 1) Whether it is the actual tendency of short-term policies or the demand for high-quality development in the medium and long term, new and old infrastructure is the biggest focus of steady growth policies, and the infrastructure chain has the highest certainty; 2) At present, the overall upward driving force of real estate is slightly insufficient, and the front-end sales are depressed. However, with the reduction of the first mortgage interest rate and the down payment ratio in many places, the loose expectation of real estate continues to rise; 3) Banks are expected to track the credit volume and the improvement of credit risk and continue to repair, but the outlook of the manufacturing industry is still low, and the short-term weakness of the real economy may put some pressure on the valuation of bank stocks; 4) Under the guarantee of delivery and risk prevention, the completion boom this year is expected to be maintained, and the post cycle sector follows the change of real estate stocks. Overall, with steady growth gradually moving towards the cash stage, the internal ranking rate of the sector in the second half of the first quarter is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle.
Xingzheng strategy: how to configure the structure under repair?
Structurally, "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, in the growth sector, the "small high tech" with bottom-up layout, deep excavation and adjustment, sufficient pressure release of congestion and still good prosperity.
On the other hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and the "mini version 2014" is still on the way, focusing on the "big finance" benefiting from "stable growth" and "wide credit" at the margin. 1) "Big finance": we judge that there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to "mini version 2014" this year, including large financial sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies. As a top-down logical support and a "place with few people", the repair of undervalued sectors will continue. 2) "Small high tech": after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
Livelihood Strategy: stabilizing should still be just Zhu YangAi
After a large number of popular track stocks in the early stage have entered the historical retreat and stabilization range, although the current growth stocks may rebound in stages, the real opportunity lies in whether they are on the corresponding fundamental path: serving energy construction (green power operation and power grid) and the digital economy to ease inflation. The biggest main line in the future is still the recovery of demand under supply constraints: under the recovery of demand in the future, supply constraints still exist, which means that the certainty of the recovery of inflation is increasing. There is no contradiction between long inflation and long demand in the short term, and there will still be differentiation in the long term. Among them: (1) on the path of long inflation, we recommend nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum and gold), crude oil (oil and gas exploitation and oil transportation) and coal. (2) On the path of long demand recovery and credit expansion, it is recommended that banks, real estate, construction and steel.
West China strategy: repeatedly grind the bottom to be more solid, and it is in the period of strategic allocation in the medium and long term
In the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares have repeatedly shaken and ground the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China's growth stabilize gradually; Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold.
