review: since November 2021, the steady growth direction represented by state-owned enterprise real estate has been the first promotion. In the top ten forecasts of 2022, it is judged that "a wave of undervalued repair market similar to 'mini version 2014' is expected in 2022".
exhibition : market repair window, "dumbbell" configuration
since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to adjust, and the current repair window has arrived:
on the one hand, popular tracks such as "new semi army" have been in the bottom area and gradually started to rebound. since the beginning of the year, the growth track of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted. 1) On the one hand, the Fed's concern about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table has heated up, US bond interest rates have risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which has continued to drag down China's risk appetite. At present, the market panic about the Fed's interest rate hike has eased. The recent 50bp interest rate hike in March is expected to fall sharply, and the US bond interest rate will rise and fall, which will also weaken the impact on China. 2) On the other hand, the high degree of institutional crowding and poor market microstructure in China have also led to the economic growth, especially the track adjustment. However, at present, the congestion of the "new half army" has dropped to a low level, and the valuation cost performance has also improved significantly. Among them, the leading stocks took the lead in stabilizing and recovering, which is the leading signal for the "new semi army" to return to rising. At present, the comparison trend between new energy and semiconductor leaders and non leaders has been in the recovery stage, and the characteristics of the bottom of the sector appear. 3) In addition, some investors are worried about the deterioration of the long-term prosperity of the "new semi army", but at present, whether it is new energy, semiconductor or military industry, its predicted net profit growth in 2022 is still more than 40%, and the high prosperity trend remains unchanged.
on the other hand, "steady growth" is not to the right, and "mini version 2014" will continue to perform. since the end of last year, we have put the "stable growth" sector in the first place, and the relative income has been significant so far. Recently, many investors are worried that "steady growth" has entered the right side, and the sector has also fluctuated. However, referring to the experience of the past five rounds of "steady growth", the expectation of market for policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from "expected warming" to "skepticism" and then to "final belief", from quantitative change to qualitative change. Even in 2014, looking back, the signal and logic of policy relaxation were very clear, but the market still experienced such a long, slow reversal of expectations, from "not believing" to "believing". finally deduces a structural market of undervalued repair. At present, the market is still "skeptical" about policy relaxation, and the expectation of "stable growth" has not been fully reflected in the position. In terms of rhythm, it is similar to that in July 2014 (the social finance data in June exceeded expectations). There are about 12370 real estate companies that have underestimated the absolute value of real estate prices and excess returns, which can alleviate the downward pressure of real estate companies and banks, and there are about 456 {positive returns of real estate companies.
structurally, "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, in the growth sector, there are "small high-tech enterprises" with bottom-up layout, deep excavation and adjustment, sufficient pressure release of congestion and still good prosperity. On the other hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and the "mini version 2014" is still on the way, focusing on the "big finance" benefiting from "stable growth" and "wide credit" at the margin. 1) "big finance": we judge that there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to "mini version 2014" this year, including banks, real estate, securities companies and other big financial sectors. As a top-down logical support and a "place with few people", the repair of undervalued sectors will continue. 2) "Small high tech": after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
investment strategy: grasp the repair of undervalued financial and real estate, and bargain hunting layout of "small high-tech". For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: focus on the return of global capital to the United States, and the game between China and the United States.
