I. overseas markets: the overseas epidemic has gradually eased, and the Fed is still shrouded in Hawks. the minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in January showed that with the repair of the job market and the rise of inflationary pressure, participants believed that the exit pace of easing policy would be faster than that of the last round of tightening cycle. According to the inflation data in January, there has been a phenomenon of "inflation wage" boosting each other in the United States. If the inflation rate does not decline as expected in the second quarter of this year, the pace of interest rate hike will be faster. According to CME's observation, the current market is expected to raise interest rates six times in 2022, of which the FOMC meeting in March raised interest rates by 25bp
second, the rhythm of counter cyclical regulation has been accelerated, and the "steady growth" has been strengthened in many aspects. at present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit. The higher than expected credit and social finance data in January also confirm that the current "steady growth" policy is gradually strengthened, and the implementation of counter cyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and other aspects has been accelerated recently: 1) the demand side policies of real estate in many cities should be relaxed, and some banks in Heze, Shandong, Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi relaxed loan restrictions; 2) The relief policies for service consumption, especially for industries with "epidemic damage", have been stepped up, and 14 departments including the national development and Reform Commission have issued policies to promote the service industry. Under the normalized epidemic prevention and control, offline service consumption has a large profit recovery space; 3) Under the requirement of "appropriately carrying out infrastructure investment in advance", the issuance of special bonds of local governments is advanced, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to pick up in the first half of the year.
III. after the short-term venting of market sentiment, the A-share risk was released and the market risk premium rose. 1) the overall valuation of A-Shares fell back to a more reasonable level. At present, the valuation of wandequan a (excluding finance, petroleum and petrochemical) is 28.7 times, below the median since 2010; 2) In terms of industries, the quantile of nearly two-thirds of shenwanyi industry valuation is below the median since 2010; 3) From the perspective of stock debt price ratio, the current Wande all a risk premium (ERP) is 2.52%, up 0.32 percentage points from the beginning of the year, above the median (2.20%) since 2010.
Fourth, investment strategy: repeatedly grind the bottom to make it more solid, and it is in the period of strategic allocation in the medium and long term. in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares have repeatedly shaken and ground the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China's growth stabilize gradually; Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. In terms of configuration, focus on two main investment lines:
First, the policy "steady growth" allocation varieties, such as " bank, real estate, building materials and construction ";
Second, it is expected to benefit from the price increase (price increase), " food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ".
In terms of theme, focus on " new energy (vehicles), digital economy, agriculture, rural areas and farmers ".
Risk hints: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Overseas Black Swan incident (political risk, sovereign rating downgrade), etc.
