Recently, lithium carbonate has opened the price rise mode again. According to the data of business agency, on February 17, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 403000-430000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was about 420000-465000 yuan / ton. In the previous January, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate just exceeded 300000 yuan / ton.
What factors have contributed to the current round of lithium carbonate price rise? Wang Wei, chief expert of Jiran carbon technology, told Huaxia times: “Over the past year, the overall price of lithium carbonate has risen more than six times. The fundamental reason for this round of price rise is the imbalance between supply and demand. Since the establishment of the dual carbon target, the demand and production of new energy vehicles have been hot, and the demand for energy storage batteries has also ushered in explosive growth. The demand for lithium carbonate, its core resource, has been rising, but the output has not achieved much growth.”
supply and demand mismatch continues
Recently, the international lithium giant Yabao company of the United States announced an increase in global demand for lithium carbonate production while announcing its 2021 results. Yabao will increase the demand for lithium carbonate from 1.14 million tons to 1.5 million tons in 2025. Meanwhile, Yabao also predicts that the overall global demand for lithium carbonate will soar to 3.2 million tons in 2030. This has directly driven the rise of global lithium carbonate prices.
According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in January, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output totaled 29.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 146.2%.
At the same time, the supply of lithium resources is not optimistic. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the research report points out that the lithium mica increment and production progress in 2021 are lower than market expectations. It is estimated that the global lithium supply will be about 770000 tons of LCE in 2022, with an increment of about 215000 tons of LCE, while 215000 tons of LCE is only equivalent to the power battery output of 260gwh-300gwh downstream, which is easy to be digested by the explosive demand.
\u3000\u3000 “On the one hand, due to the maintenance of Chinese lithium salt enterprises, the supply of lithium carbonate remained low in February, and the growth rate of output was relatively slow. On the other hand, due to the relatively difficult development of lithium resources, the growth rate of China’s lithium carbonate supply and production expansion was limited in a certain period of time, and the production expansion progress of overseas lithium mines was not optimistic, which limited the overall supply growth of lithium resources in the near future 。 At the same time, the downstream demand continues to rise, especially the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations, driving the release of the production and sales of cathode materials. The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong. The mismatch between supply and demand leads to a gap between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market, resulting in a strong price of lithium carbonate. ” Find steel network analyst he Shaoling told the reporter of Huaxia times.
At the same time, he Shaoling believes that judging from the new capacity of lithium carbonate publicly disclosed by Chinese enterprises, the capacity of lithium carbonate will not increase much in 2022. In terms of import, there is a risk of disturbance in the supply of lithium concentrate, and the behavior of lithium mining enterprises seeking to extend the industrial chain poses a challenge to the raw material guarantee of Chinese lithium salt enterprises, The production indicators of existing mines do not rule out the possibility of further reduction.
the price of lithium carbonate is still bullish for a long time
The rising price of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches has put pressure on battery manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches. 30% – 45% of the cost of power battery is mainly on the cathode material, and lithium is the core raw material of the cathode material. Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, and lithium resources have gradually become the most critical link in the supply and demand of the battery industry chain. Some lithium carbonate enterprises have opened the current price trading mode, and the customers who purchase lithium carbonate on-site will conclude the transaction according to the current price on the day of picking up the goods. The shortage of lithium carbonate supply can be seen.
\u3000\u3000 “The soaring price of lithium carbonate has a huge impact on manufacturers of lithium batteries and even new energy vehicles, and the rising cost has left many manufacturers with no profit space. It should be said that the core of the operation of downstream battery manufacturers in the future lies in the bargaining power of lithium carbonate, which is similar to many traditional industries, such as iron and steel. The upstream raw materials eat up the downstream profit space. ”Wang Wei told the reporter of Huaxia times.
He Shaoling believes that the part of lithium resources used by lithium batteries is mainly the cathode material in the battery unit and the lithium hexafluorophosphate raw material used in the electrolyte, and the cost of lithium carbonate raw material accounts for about 10% of the cost of lithium battery unit. With the continuous rise of lithium carbonate price, the price of lithium batteries will rise to a certain extent, It may eventually affect the sales of new energy vehicles, and then slow down the development speed of all links of the lithium battery new energy industry chain.
Judging from the price trend of lithium carbonate in the future, Wang Wei believes that the global lithium resources are mainly concentrated in the southern hemisphere. Although China has abundant lithium resources, due to the rapid development of the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) battery industry, the dependence on the import of lithium resources has gradually increased. The world’s largest exporter of lithium carbonate is Australia, China’s lithium resources are mainly concentrated in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, with high mining difficulty and cost, and large capacity constraints. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to rise for a long time in the future.
He Shaoling believes that although the lithium market demand will remain high in the next few years and the supply of lithium resources in South America and Australia may encounter problems, lithium resources with lower grade in other places can be developed and utilized. Generally speaking, lithium resources are rich in reserves, but the mining and extraction process is difficult. In the future, with the improvement of lithium mining technology, the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and the improvement of recovery and recycling, the global supply and demand of lithium carbonate will gradually return to equilibrium in the near future.
