In the five trading days in the first week after the Spring Festival in 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell for four days, down more than 17%, which is almost equivalent to the disappearance of a Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) in the secondary market.
What happened to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a market value of trillion and known as “ningwang”? For a time, rumors grew, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was likely to be sanctioned by the United States? Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be “eliminated” from the gem weight index? Tesla transfers the battery order Byd Company Limited(002594) ?
On February 13, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) issued a statement on this, saying that this series of malicious rumors caused misunderstanding and misinterpretation in the market and affected the reputation of the enterprise; Rumors are groundless, groundless and bad in nature; In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, the case was officially reported to the public security organ on February 12, and the rumor mongers should be investigated for legal responsibility according to law.
However, the layman has seen enough excitement, and the expert has seen the doorway – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is really worried.
Although Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still ranks first in the global and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery market, such performance mainly depends on the favorable industry environment and the first release of production capacity. Since 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery business has been repeatedly raised about the reduction of gross profit margin. The city ranks first, but the gold content of technology is less than that of the latecomers, which also makes the outside world question that the moat of “ningwang” seems not so deep.
A more realistic question behind this is: is the era of “King Ning” coming to an end?
“ningwang” valuation callback
Behind the storm of falling market value is the hidden danger of falsely high valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the capital market for a long time. According to wind data, at the end of June last year, the fund’s shareholding in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached a peak, with a total of about 284 million shares; In the fourth quarter of last year, the number of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares held by securities companies also decreased from 05 million shares to 04 million shares. The correction of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) value has long been expected, but it becomes more and more serious when the share price falls.
Led by the largest “ningwang”, this value correction is particularly significant in new energy concept stocks, including leading stocks such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . The reason is that the valuation exceeds the expected “pot”. Industry professionals pointed out that the new energy sector rose all the way last year and accumulated more profits, which has been adjusted in stages since this year.
“Stabilizing in fluctuations” should be the value correction route of “ningwang” in the future. As for the degree of this correction, the research report issued by Capital Securities pointed out that there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.
At the same time, the heat of the new energy industry makes the capital market more rational. In 2021, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 159.5% and 157.5%. The agency expects that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2022 is expected to exceed 6 million. In 2021, the annual production and sales of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries were 219.7gwh and 186gwh respectively, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 163.4% and 182.3%, and the cumulative loading volume reached 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 142.8%.
On February 14, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) organized an investor survey, including more than 50 investment institutions such as Gaoling, Sequoia, Temasek, fidelity and Tencent. The market is concerned about many issues, such as the technical progress of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the layout of the supply chain, whether it is restricted by the United States, the intention of switching power, and so on.
The summary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is that “the company’s growth speed, organizational ability and personnel’s internationalization ability are the biggest challenges.” This also means that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still has the ambition to dominate the international power battery industry and will further accelerate its action on the overseas market.
Since 2014, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has successively set up subsidiaries around the world to improve its globalization system through overseas acquisitions, overseas production bases and global R & D centers.
According to the research of Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , the overseas expansion of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) mainly benefits from the fact that the development of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States is in the explosive period under the low base, and the demand gap of power battery is large; After development, China has a complete battery industry chain system, and the company has no less technology and supply capacity than overseas battery factories.
good performance is difficult to stop rumors
Falling share prices and rumors can make “ningwang” anxious, but also because Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is in the critical period of a new round of financing. On August 12 last year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) disclosed the fixed increase plan, and the total amount of funds to be raised should not exceed 58.2 billion yuan. Since then, the Shenzhen stock exchange sent a letter late at night asking whether there was “risk of capacity digestion” and questioning Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) over financing. So Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) adjusted the fixed increase plan. In the fixed increase announcement on January 17 this year, it is planned to raise no more than 45 billion yuan and issue no more than 35 specific objects.
With the release of industry data in January, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January reached 347000, up 132% year-on-year. The new energy sector, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , continued to rise, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was slightly relieved.
According to SNE research, a market research organization, the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery in 2021 totaled 97gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 168%; The global market share reached 33%. According to the annual performance forecast for 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies during the reporting period was 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 12 billion yuan to 14 billion yuan, an increase of 181.38% to 228.28% over the same period last year.
This will be the best profit level since its establishment, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) said that it was mainly due to the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and energy storage market in 2021, which led to the growth of battery sales. At the same time, the company made progress in market development, released new production capacity, and increased production and sales accordingly.
Although the close range is good, the distant worry is still there. On January 27, LG new energy officially landed on the Korean stock exchange. SNE data show that its market share of global installed capacity in 2021 is second only to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , with 20.3%, ranking second. Two days before its listing, LG new energy and General Motors announced to invest US $2.6 billion to establish a third joint venture power battery factory in the United States.
Up to now, LG new energy has production bases in China, the United States, South Korea, Poland, Indonesia and other places, and is trying to expand its business in North America. According to its plan, the power battery capacity will reach 430gwh in 2025.
In contrast, the total capacity planning of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to 2025 is expected to exceed 600gwh, but the main position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is still in China. With the opening of the global competition pattern, the main battlefield of the confrontation between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and LG new energy will be overseas. At present, the latter has greater advantages and it is difficult to determine the victory or defeat.
is the era of “King Ning” coming to an end?
At the beginning of the year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) brought more topics than that.
On February 14, the court announcement on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) suing honeycomb energy for unfair competition attracted widespread attention. The case has been heard three times in May, August and December 2021, and the fourth hearing will be held on the 23rd of this month.
The cause of this lawsuit is that from 2018 to 2019, nine Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) technicians joined the affiliated company of honeycomb energy after leaving their jobs. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) believes that the nine employees have served as chief engineer, manufacturing engineer and marketing specialist respectively, violated the confidentiality and non competition agreement signed with them, and joined the company competing with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) before the non competition period expired.
In response to this, honeycomb energy responded: “we have paid attention to the media reports, and the company has been operating legally and in compliance. Our relevant departments are actively preparing for a court hearing and believe that the law will have a fair judgment.”
Has the power battery industry been involved here? What people are interested in talking about is not the technical connection and love hate relationship between the two companies, but the small honeycomb energy has ambitious development goals, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may regard it as a major problem.
According to the development plan, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will reach 600gwh in 2025, while the global market share of honeycomb energy will only be 1% in 2021, and the capacity under construction will be 297gwh. The capacity target in 2025 is also 600gwh Since February 2021, honeycomb energy has completed five consecutive rounds of financing, with a valuation of 46 billion yuan.
With the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market, vehicle enterprises are more active in mastering the initiative of power battery supply. Take Byd Company Limited(002594) as an example, it not only realizes the self production and self-sale of batteries, but also supplies blade batteries with good market feedback to the whole industry. Now it is preparing for the listing of its ferdi battery, obtaining more financing opportunities and becoming a battery supplier of more car enterprises. Honeycomb energy backed by Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) may refer to this development track.
At present, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) are accelerating the expansion of production. Tesla, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, GAC and other automobile enterprises have begun to layout R & D battery projects. The change of power battery industry pattern is inevitable.
The key to determining the quality of competition in the future is not necessarily the supply capacity, but pay more attention to the gold content of technology, that is, the irreplaceable nature of products. Since 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery business has been repeatedly raised about the reduction of gross profit margin. The sales volume has opened, but the gross profit has decreased. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with the first installed capacity is the leading enterprise, but for car enterprises, battery supply is not indispensable.
In the short term, to avoid “putting eggs in one basket”, car companies tend to introduce multiple battery suppliers; In the long run, it is a better choice for car enterprises to cooperate with battery enterprises in directional development or self-developed and self-produced batteries.
The evaporation of market value and the turbulence of rumors are not the failure of “ningwang”, but that the industry environment is changing and the market tends to wait and see rationally. Whether it is the self-developed and self built battery production line of automobile enterprises, or the pace of capacity expansion and technology change of friends, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) can not be stopped. A falling share price may rise again, but the declining position is difficult to reproduce. The wood is beautiful in the forest, and the wind will destroy it. The premise of industrial prosperity and benign competition is the retreat of the overlord. Is the era of “ningwang” coming to an end?
