New year's day and Spring Festival have always been the peak consumption season of pork, which can often bring strong support to the pork market. However, this year's pork price has continued to decline in the peak season.
On February 16, the National Bureau of statistics disclosed data that affected by the high base in the same period last year, pork prices fell by 41.6% and the decline expanded by 4.9 percentage points. The monthly sales report of pig enterprises shows that although the sales volume of most pig enterprises in January increased significantly year-on-year, the sales revenue is obviously dragged down by the pig price, with an obvious downward trend.
"The supply factor of pork price has a greater impact than the demand factor. At present, the main reason is that the stock is at a high level, and the supply determines the downward trend of pork price." Ying Xiwen, senior researcher of China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with the reporter of Huaxia times that judging from the current stock, the pork price is expected to remain low in the coming months.
the peak season is not busy, and the pig price is down
According to the monthly sales report of major leading pig enterprises, the sales volume of most pig enterprises in January increased significantly year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) took the lead, and the sales volume reached 380800 in January, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1.4 times.
At the same time, the sales volume of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) were similar, with 1292600 pigs and 1506100 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products) sold respectively, with a month on month increase of 20.62% and 22.75%, and a year-on-year increase of 76.61% and 50.01%; The sales volume of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) was also nearly one million, with a total sales of 958700 pigs (including 69800 piglets and 888900 commercial pigs), an increase of 19.07% month on month and 21.86% year-on-year.
At present, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) has not disclosed the sales briefing. According to the arrangement of the company in previous years, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) often discloses the sales briefing in January and February in March.
Although the sales volume of major pig enterprises increased, the sales revenue was obviously dragged down by the pig price. The sales revenue of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) in January decreased month on month and year on year. Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) the sales revenue was 558482700 yuan, a month on month decrease of 7.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.96%; Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) the sales revenue was 1.219 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 5.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.92%. Although Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) decreased year-on-year, they increased month on month. The January sales revenue of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) was 2.471 billion yuan, with a month on month change of 7.86% and a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%; The revenue of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) was 1.638 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 34.66%.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, affected by the high base in the same period last year, pork prices fell by 41.6% and the decline expanded by 4.9 percentage points.
In fact, affected by the "mismatch" between pork supply and demand in China, pork prices in January showed a sluggish peak season. According to the joint monitoring of the information center of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and Shandong Zhuo Chuang Information Co., Ltd., the weekly average value of the total ex factory price index of lean white strip pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in the first four weeks of 2022 is 20.22 yuan, 18.72 yuan, 18.93 yuan and 19.59 yuan per kilogram respectively. In the fifth week of 2022, the weekly average value of the total ex factory price index of lean white strip pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) has dropped to 17.98 yuan per kilogram, down 8.2% month on month and 54.9% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points lower than that of last week.
"Judging from the current stock, pork prices are expected to remain low in the coming months." Should be expressed in idioms.
In the face of the continuous decline of pork prices during the pork peak season in January, IPG China economist Bai Wenxi told the Huaxia times that the main reason behind the decline of pork prices in the peak season is the market situation of oversupply and serious imbalance between supply and demand.
"The decline in pork prices is due to the basic end of winter curing, the acceleration of pig slaughter before the festival and the loose supply of pork." Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary General of Rural Revitalization and Construction Commission, said in an interview with Huaxia times.
"Earning a year, leveling a year and losing a year can be described as a true portrayal of the vicious circle of the 'pig cycle'." Yuan Shuai pointed out that after the feast of "super pig cycle" triggered by African swine fever, the pig industry is struggling, and the risk management needs of relevant subjects are more urgent than ever before.
leading pig enterprises expand production and institutions are arranged in advance
It is clear that the price of live pigs has been falling all the way and the production capacity has been high for a long time, but major enterprises have still issued production increase plans, of which Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 's 2022 plan directly aims at 50 million slaughter volume. According to the target of no less than 25% growth rate of pig sales in 2022 put forward in the restricted stock incentive plan (Draft) of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . This means that the target of muyuan in 2022 will not be less than 5023875.
In addition to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also said on the investor interaction platform that the target of marketing in 2022 is 18-20 million, an increase of 30% - 50% compared with 13217400 in 2021. The Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) also said in the investor's question that it is expected to sell 6 million in 2022, an increase of 1.8 million compared with 2021.
Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) in the institutional research, the company plans to sell 2 million pigs in 2022. According to the production plan of the pig business department, the overall marketing volume shows an upward trend, accounting for about 40% in the first half of the year and about 60% in the second half of the year. 130400 pigs were sold in January, including 129300 fat pigs, a significant increase compared with 32600 fat pigs in January 2021.
Why do giants have to expand production under losses? In fact, when the pig cycle is at a low level, farmers and breeding enterprises will exit one after another. For industry giants, under the condition of cost advantage, it is an excellent opportunity to seize the market. Therefore, the production capacity plan of the aquaculture industry does not fully focus on the temporary profits and losses, but more on the long-term layout to achieve the improvement of market share.
In fact, not only have pig enterprises started the pig cycle, but some institutions are ready to start laying out the pork market.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) believes that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually improve, and there are still large opportunities for the left layout of the sector. It is recommended to focus on the pig breeding sector. Continue to recommend and pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then pay attention to the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and uncertain growth.
Since this year, the share price of pork stocks has risen all the way, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) has achieved a cumulative increase of 55.12%, leading the rise of the sector; The closing price of Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) February 11 was 23.55 yuan, breaking the record high in the session, with a cumulative increase of 48.29% since this year; Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) rose by 12.07%, and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) rose by 8.62% and 7.23% respectively,
