After the Spring Festival, the scope of cement price increase is expanding from the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other places to the southwest, central and southern regions.
Just after the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, some areas along the river in Anhui announced an increase in the price of cement clinker by about 30 yuan / ton. Affected by this, many cement enterprises issued price increase notices. Recently, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan and other places also announced an increase in cement prices. Chen Yonggang, the sales director of a cement enterprise in the Yangtze River Delta, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the clinker in the Yangtze River Delta has increased by two rounds, and the maximum price adjustment has reached hundreds of yuan per ton. Now cement enterprises in southwest and other places are also trying to promote the increase of cement prices.
However, some insiders said that at present, the demand side has not been started, and most regions are still in the peak production stage. It remains to be seen whether the price adjustment can be implemented. This may be a means for some enterprises to preheat the market in advance.
Kong Xiangzhong, executive chairman of China Cement Industry Association, told the 21st Century Business Herald that one of the biggest obstacles in the cement industry is still overcapacity. The leader of the cement industry Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) also said in the latest announcement that the demand side is still in the platform period, the supply side is controlled under policies such as peak shifting production and reduction replacement, the cost side is facing upward pressure, and the rise of factor costs drives the cement price center higher, striving to digest the impact of raw and fuel materials and other costs on the operation.
whether the price increase can be realized remains to be seen
In the price adjustment notice issued by an enterprise in Chongqing, the reporter saw that the enterprise raised the price of all kinds of cement by 50 yuan / ton from February 17. The reason for the price adjustment is affected by the market situation and production and marketing situation. In addition, some cement enterprises in Guang’an, Sichuan, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia and other places also said to increase the cement price by 20-50 yuan / ton.
Although many places have issued notices of raising cement prices, the resumption of work in many places is not ideal due to factors such as weather and off peak production. The construction index of China cement network shows that compared with 22.32 on February 6 and 27.88 on February 17, it is still low, that is, more than 70% of the cities in China are not suitable for construction.
According to Chen Yonggang, at present, most clinker enterprises in the region are in the staggered peak production stage, the inventory is about 60%, and the clinker price is stable, medium and strong, but there is no big improvement at the downstream cement demand end. “At the end of last year, the progress of some real estate projects slowed down. After the Spring Festival, the weather was capricious, and only some key projects gradually recovered.”
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) analyst Yin Yanji pointed out that according to historical data, the rise of clinker price is about one round ahead of the rise of cement price. As the price of clinker rises in advance after the year, the price stabilization mentality of cement enterprises is also strong. Some enterprises want to raise the price of cement in the near future to send a signal to the market, but the demand of cement market still needs to be restored, so the price increase may be difficult to implement.
There has been an obvious “restless spring” market in the cement index. According to the tracking data of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , the time point of cement price rise in the past 13 years was in March. Industry insiders believe that from the performance of the cement sector after new year’s day this year, there has been no sustained rebound, mainly because the cement demand has entered a downward period and the uncertainty on the demand side is increasing, so there are still many games. With the gradual recovery of demand after the Lantern Festival, it is expected that the cement price may start to rise in early March.
On February 16, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) said during the investigation of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) that the prices in different regions are different, the price changes are closely related to the relationship between supply and demand, the industry ecology is getting better, and the price competition is showing a benign trend.
industry competition and cooperation to improve enterprise profitability
Since last year, the cement industry has been affected by multiple factors such as shrinking demand, double control and production restriction of energy consumption, and rising coal prices, resulting in large price fluctuations. This year, whether from the supply side or the demand side, the whole industry still faces great challenges.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that under the background of double carbon, the peak shift production time of cement enterprises in many regions has been extended to varying degrees. As an important means to improve overcapacity and reduce carbon emission, peak shifting production has been widely recognized in the industry, and its impact on the cement supply side will continue for a long time.
In addition, more stringent capacity replacement makes the exit speed of small production lines expected to accelerate. Yin Yanji pointed out that peak shifting production and capacity replacement have become more strict, and the supply pattern has been further improved. The capacity of the cement industry is expected to continue to shrink this year.
From the demand side, after the Spring Festival, many national departments continued to speak, and the steady growth policy was superimposed. However, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) said in the announcement that the pull of national key projects and other infrastructure projects on cement demand is expected to be reflected after the second quarter, with limited pull in the first half of the year; The new construction area of houses is expected to decline significantly, and it is preliminarily predicted that the demand this year will decline year-on-year.
In addition to the impact of demand and supply side, the competitive and cooperative development of the market will also have an impact on the price of cement. “The most important thing this year is to stabilize the market.” Kong Xiangzhong believes that market integration should be accelerated on the basis of stable benefits and stable growth.
Since last year, the pace of integration and merger in the cement industry has been faster and faster. On February 9, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) disclosed the fixed increase plan of 4.2 billion yuan. Among the companies that obtained the quota, there were many peer listed companies such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) . Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) said that this participation in the fixed growth can share the development achievements of the cement industry and further improve the profitability of the company.
Yin Yanji said that the improvement of regional concentration of cement leaders, resulting in the improvement of bargaining power and cost transmission capacity, is expected to further improve the profitability of cement enterprises.
In addition, in the context of double carbon, cement enterprises, as major energy consumers, have stepped up the layout of new energy industry. On the evening of February 17, Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) announced that it plans to use its own funds of no more than 500 million yuan for equity investment in new economy industries, focusing on high-quality growth projects in new energy storage, chip semiconductor, new materials, environmental protection and other industries. The investment methods include but are not limited to direct equity investment in the target projects Cooperate with other professional institutions such as equity investment funds to carry out equity investment.
Previously, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) acquired 100% equity of new energy company held by Anhui Conch Investment Co., Ltd., with a transaction consideration of about 443 million yuan. Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) has also released the investment plan of distributed photovoltaic power generation and energy storage integration project, which plans to use the plant areas and mining areas of its subsidiaries to build photovoltaic and energy storage power stations, with a total investment of 1.339 billion yuan.
