Since the beginning of 2022, the giants of the express industry have maintained steady growth, the Tongda Department has basically maintained a growth rate of 20%, and the growth rate of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) express service revenue ranks first; The revenue scale of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics business reached 17.08 billion yuan.
According to the newly disclosed business data, in January, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) as the leader of express delivery, achieved a total revenue of 25.1 billion yuan in January, an increase of about 50% year-on-year, mainly due to the merger of relevant business revenue of Kerry Logistics. Among them, the operating revenue of supply chain and international business reached 7.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 5 times; In the express logistics business, the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.23%, a year-on-year increase of about 10% in business volume and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in single ticket revenue.
Among the “Tongda Department”, Yun Co., Ltd. led the growth rate of express service revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 28%, realizing an express service revenue of 3.957 billion yuan; Followed by Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , the revenue of express service business increased by 21.27% and 20.09% year-on-year respectively.
From the perspective of single ticket income of express service, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) also maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49% to 2.62 yuan; In addition, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) express service single ticket revenue increased by 14.55% year-on-year to 2.72 yuan. In contrast, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket revenue grew slowly, at 3.19%, reaching 2.59 yuan.
In a recent institutional survey, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) executives pointed out that from the perspective of factor analysis, there is still some room for the company’s core operating costs to decline in 2022. On the one hand, the scale effect potential brought by the company’s resource investment in core asset construction, intelligent equipment technology iteration and property self-support has not been fully released; On the other hand, the company optimizes the transfer process of express business operation, which is conducive to the reduction of the cost of the whole network. In addition, according to the scale of existing core assets, the self owned proportion of allocated sites and the self owned proportion of transportation capacity, it is expected that the scale of capital expenditure of the company will be narrowed in 2022.
For the cost decline in 2022, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) executives said that with the active promotion of all participants in the industry, the market price showed a good situation of continuous repair. At present, the company has not significantly adjusted the price policy, and the market price remains stable as a whole. The company also cautiously expects that the industry price is unlikely to decline significantly this year.
According to statistics, last year Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) completed a total of 18.402 billion express service business, an increase of about 30% year-on-year, and the market share reached 16.99%; The express service revenue reached 39.629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.05%. The company expects that with the increase of e-commerce penetration, the sinking of e-commerce channels, the diversification of platforms and the increment of express packages in recent years, it is expected that the e-commerce economy and express industry still have a large development space.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) analysis pointed out that under the supervision of the industry, the ranking risk of head non leading enterprises decreased, and the fundamentals continued to improve marginally since September last year, catalyzing the first wave of repair of valuation. Considering the continuous release of regulatory signals and the stable endogenous demand of the express network, it is expected that the industry competition will slow down periodically in 2022, the profitability will be definitely repaired, and the performance will increase sector by sector. In the long run, the industry will return to benign competition and natural concentration, and the rise of the leader will still be expected.
Combined with the performance forecast and express, the performance of the express giant was differentiated last year.
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) the latest performance express shows that the company’s operating revenue in 2021 was 45.1 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 30% year-on-year; The net profit was about 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%; The basic earnings per share is 0.66 yuan. The company pointed out that the industry competition has gradually changed from price driven to value driven, and the industry development environment has gradually improved. However, the company continues to promote the comprehensive digital transformation, increase the investment of core resources, focus on deepening cost control, significantly enhance the pricing ability of products, significantly improve the customer structure, and maintain sound business development.
Compared with Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , it is estimated that last year’s profit will turn into a loss of 840 million yuan – 950 million yuan. According to the company, due to the changes in the express market in 2021, the company’s asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, the annual performance is still under pressure. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the company’s performance in the fourth quarter of last year is expected to be profitable.
In addition, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) is expected to make a profit of 4.2 billion yuan to 4.4 billion yuan last year, a decrease of 40% – 43% over the same period last year, while the profit in the fourth quarter increased by 39% – 50% year-on-year. The company pointed out that in order to cope with the high growth of parts volume and alleviate the bottleneck of production capacity, the investment in network resources has been increased, and the labor cost has increased, resulting in an increase in cost; On the other hand, the economic express products with lower pricing grow rapidly, which puts some pressure on the overall profit margin. In the fourth quarter, the effect of lean cost control was shown, and the merger of Kerry Logistics networking Co., Ltd. improved the performance.
