In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world continued to fall sharply.
In terms of economy, the inflation level of the United States has reached a new high. Although the current social zero data is still strong, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan has dropped sharply, which can be seen from the impact of inflation on consumer expectations; In Europe, although the euro zone ZEW Economic Prosperity Index fell slightly in February and the economic recovery is still not solid, the acceleration of monetary policy normalization may increase under the pressure of high inflation.
In terms of China's environment, the social finance and credit data released last week show that the expansion of the total scale has verified the promotion of wide credit to a certain extent, but the poor structural data still makes the market worried. The small increase of residents' short-term and medium and long-term loans reflects the sluggish demand in the consumer and real estate markets respectively, The limited increase of medium and long-term loans reflects that the investment intention of enterprises is still relatively low. On the whole, the realization of wide credit more reflects the initiative of the supply side, while the undertaking intention of the demand side is still cautious. The promotion of wide credit and stable economy still depends on the greater action of policies on the demand side. In terms of inflation data, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI fell in January. The weak pig cycle is the main reason for the decline of CPI growth rate, while the implementation of supply guarantee measures and high base effect are the key to the decline of PPI year-on-year growth rate. In terms of policy, the statement in column 6 of the central bank's monetary policy implementation report that "through concentrated tackling, the prominent risk points accumulated in China's financial system have been effectively handled, and the institutional weaknesses have been gradually supplemented" means that phased results have been achieved in the resolution of financial risks, which has created conditions for maintaining a relatively loose financial environment during the year, It also eased the worries of stable growth to a certain extent, which is conducive to the financial sector to pay more attention to protecting demand, so as to promote the realization of broad credit.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions have warmed up, but the strength is weak, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continues to decline. In the middle reaches, steel prices fell slightly and cement prices slowed down. On the upstream side, coal prices generally strengthened, aluminum and zinc prices in non-ferrous metal prices fluctuated, copper and lead prices fluctuated sideways, precious metal prices rose slightly, and crude oil prices reached a new high.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
