In 2022, the allocation value of dividend strategy is high, and the valuation of dividend strategy stocks is generally low, which is suitable for allocation in the period of upward interest rate, credit expansion and PMI expansion; The expectation of the current policy of “steady growth and wide credit” is strong, and the subsequent dividend strategy may have high allocation value. Due to the higher proportion of consumption in Shenzhen Stock Exchange dividend, the allocation value in credit stabilization is higher.
At present, the dividend index is at a historically low level, and the subsequent valuation repair may usher in with the credit expansion.
The Shenzhen dividend index has a strong Pro cyclical attribute, and the main component industries may obtain excess returns in 2022. The market performance of the Shenzhen dividend index since 2010 has been restored. The Shenzhen dividend index has a strong Pro cyclical attribute, which is difficult to decline year after year, and only in the year when the economic growth rate continues to decline, it has lost 300% to Shanghai and Shenzhen In addition, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange bonus (Baijiu + white household appliances + breeding) accounted for more than 50%, and banking real estate accounted for nearly 20%, and the corresponding industry in dividend dividends and capital gains may have a better performance in 2022.
Baijiu: white capital: low capital expenditure, rising monetary capital, stable industrial structure, and more stable dividend payout. Under the condition that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI gradually converges, the selling price of the consumer industry may rise slightly, the cost side may decline greatly, the profitability will be improved, and the capital gains of subsequent consumer industries may be higher.
Bank real estate: the absolute value of dividend yield is high, and it has benefited significantly after the implementation of wide credit.
Aquaculture industry: the de industrialization of production capacity has begun, and the price of pork may recover gradually. Considering that the current profitability of breeding enterprises has reached a historical low, with the rebound of pork prices, the subsequent profit elasticity is high, and the upward space of the industry is large.
Risk tips
1. Variation of covid-19 strain or repeated local epidemic;
2. There have been major adjustments in China’s policies.
