[focus on the main line of the industrial track: intelligence is the preferred direction, and digital economy (digital new infrastructure) has become the marginal Focus] the current layout of the industrial track focuses on the following directions: high prosperity ("digital intelligence"), steady growth, post epidemic repair and global inflation. The way to win a higher rate is to find flexibility in undervalued values and grasp high growth in low levels.
[profit forecast: the profit forecast of the intelligent industry track in February was significantly revised upward month on month] the core industry track in February consistently predicted that the top changes in profit growth in 2022 were 5g, intelligent transportation, photovoltaic, smart home, medical and American, shipping port, UHV, hydrogen energy, network security and IDC In February, the core tertiary industry unanimously predicted that the top change in profit growth in 2022 is:
Lithium, lead-zinc, potassium fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, shipping, machine tool equipment, lifting and transportation equipment, feed processing, fluorine chemical industry.
[valuation and cost performance: CXO may have entered the safety margin] at the valuation level, represented by the infrastructure chain (including traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure), the three-year PE historical scores of urban rail transit, UHV and railway are relatively high, reaching 94.00%, 92.20% and 72.40% respectively; The PE value of nuclear power is 88% in the past three years; In the high boom track, the current valuation of the new energy chain is significantly lower than that before, but the wind power Pb value is 97% in the past three years. From the perspective of valuation profit and cost performance, from the perspective of PEG, the peg value of new energy (vehicles), semiconductors, etc. is less than 1, the peg of national defense and military industry is high, and the valuation profit and cost performance of intelligent field is high; There is differentiation within the pharmaceutical industry, and cro may have entered the safety margin.
[boom observation] in recent January, the boom of major industrial tracks, medium and high-end manufacturing, intelligence, new energy and military industry are expected to remain high, and infrastructure, consumption and medicine are expected to usher in a dilemma reversal.
1) in terms of PPI chain, the boom remains high, and the nonferrous metals represented by electrolytic aluminum and some chemicals continue to rise. The price of aluminum ingots continued to rise sharply. On February 16, the quotation of 99.85% aluminum ingots and A00 aluminum ingots increased by 4.32% and 4.70% respectively year-on-year, significantly higher than that at the end of last month. The resumption of production was gradually promoted, but under the disturbance of the epidemic in some areas, the operating rate fell back in the week of February 12, the tight supply and demand continued to maintain, and the price support remained. In terms of external market, it is greatly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and closely follow up the relevant trends. Urea prices continued to rise, up another 1.59% month on month (MOM) at the end of last month. Under the parking and production reduction of some enterprises and strong downstream demand, the price is still supported.
2) in terms of infrastructure chain, infrastructure has become an important starting point for steady growth. From the overall perspective of infrastructure, Sichuan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places have successively completed the centralized commencement of major projects, involving a huge number and amount of projects, mainly covering infrastructure, industrial upgrading, new infrastructure, major livelihood projects and other directions.
3) marginal recovery of new energy vehicles in high-end manufacturing chain. Among them, the output of new energy vehicles in January was 431000, a year-on-year increase of 140.55%, an increase of 27.05 PCT over the previous period On February 10, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, which clearly proposed to accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, and support the construction, combination and development of new energy power.
4) the trend of intellectualization is clarified again. In January, steam VR user penetration reached 2.14%, significantly increased by 0.21 percentage points compared with December last year, accelerating penetration. At the same time, there is more emphasis on intelligence at the policy level, and the process of intelligent construction represented by computing network and data security is expected to be accelerated.
Risk warning: the change of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; The policy promotion was less than expected
