Today (February 18), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board, and then the stock index maintained a weak shock. The Shanghai index took the lead in highlighting the encirclement, gradually pulled up and turned red, and then maintained a shock consolidation near yesterday's closing point, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index were slightly weak.
On the disk, boosted by the official launch of the "counting from the east to the west" project, technology stocks led by the concept of computing power soared, and coal, steel and other sectors also performed well. At the same time, the market of "drinking and taking medicine" has also made a comeback. In terms of covid-19 drug concept, as of press time, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) "20cm" limit, the stock has gained three limit boards in nearly five trading days, with a cumulative rise of more than 70%. In Baijiu shares, Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) trading, of which, Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) three consecutive trading days to achieve trading.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that when the transaction cannot be effectively enlarged, the game characteristics of the market stock are obvious, the wait-and-see mentality of OTC funds is heavy, and the performance of track stocks and cycle stocks turns, but it failed to drive the stock index out of the market. The market trend opportunities still need to be changed by external factors such as policy and capital.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme one ] East number West calculation
Donghai securities mentioned that the project of "counting from the east to the west" was officially launched. "Counting from the east to the west" project belongs to digital infrastructure construction, that is, new infrastructure construction. The construction of computing hub and data center cluster will expand the effective investment in upstream and downstream industrial chains and help the economy achieve steady growth. The data center industrial chain includes not only traditional civil engineering, but also it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software, green energy supply, etc., which may boost the relevant industrial chains in the future.
Guosheng Securities said that the full launch of the "digital computing from the east to the west" and the superposition of the development direction determined by the digital economy will be a great opportunity for the whole digital communication side. The continuous and rapid growth of computing power and flow is an inevitable trend. The continuous construction and expansion of supporting infrastructure is a rigid demand and has high certainty in the next 3-5 years. Combined with the current global development trend of science and technology, technology giants at home and abroad have increased their investment and layout. In the future, they all point to the deterministic opportunities of computing power and traffic. The development of computing power, traffic and even applications will also drive the construction of mobile networks, and 5g and related industrial chains will continue to benefit as the core.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the East digital West computing project is expected to drive the overall improvement of computing power demand in the central and western regions, and the key benefits of the communication industry chain. It is expected to drive the development of data centers and related upstream and downstream industries and expand industrial investment through the layout of 8 computing hubs and the formation of data center clusters across the country. We are optimistic about the demand drive of the East digital West computing project for IDC, ICT equipment, optical modules, operators, temperature control equipment, optical communication and other fields.
As the core base of the East digital West computing project, the communication sector is expected to benefit mainly: 1) operators: the advantages of cloud network integration and cloud edge combination of operators are prominent. Operators have a large-scale computing power layout in the central and western regions, and the public cloud and edge cloud are also growing rapidly, which is expected to continuously improve the operating efficiency. It is suggested to pay attention to China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) ;
2) temperature control equipment: green energy-saving development of data center + stricter pue control is expected to continue to promote the demand for temperature control equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Nanjing Canatal Data-Centre Environmental Tech Co.Ltd(603912) ;
3) ICT equipment & optical module: ICT equipment and optical module are the basis of computing power network. The construction of data center cluster + the increasing demand for computing power is expected to promote the expansion and upgrading of servers, switches, routers and optical modules. It is recommended to pay attention to Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Zte Corporation(000063) , Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) ;
4) optical communication: the explosion of data traffic is expected to accelerate the promotion of optical fiber communication to all-optical network. It is optimistic that the centralized procurement volume and price of optical fiber and optical cable of operators will rise together to promote the high-quality growth of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) , Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company(601869) ;
5) IDC: under the policy environment of counting from the east to the west, the energy consumption indicators of first tier cities are becoming stricter. The advantages of IDC leaders with strong foundation and in-depth cooperation with Internet and cloud manufacturers in and around first tier cities continue to highlight. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that the "East digital West computing" project will focus on supporting innovative contents such as green data center (green energy conservation, renewable energy and energy storage), efficient scheduling of computing power (Cloud Computing), and controllable innovation of computing power (domestic basic software and hardware, cloud platform, big data analysis). The project of "counting from the east to the west" will drive the demand opportunities of data center operation and civil engineering, it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software and green energy supply in the industrial chain. []
[subject II ] covid-19 drug
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that with the approval of Pfizer specific drugs, the normalization of the epidemic situation in China will become a trend. Paxlovid's emergency approval in China shows the feasibility of national recognition of oral small molecule drugs for covid-19, and provides a drug treatment solution for covid-19 epidemic in China. Paxlovid's clinical data show that its efficacy is superior. Starting paxlovid treatment within 5 days after the onset of symptoms (twice a day for 5 consecutive days) can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. We believe that the approval of paxlovid marks the normalization of the epidemic in China, and "vaccine + specific drug" is expected to finally defeat covid-19.
In the long run, China's prevention and control policies are expected to be relaxed. At present, overseas countries have maintained an open attitude towards the epidemic. Considering that the main active component of paxlovid has the same antiviral effect on mutant strains in vitro and has curative effect on Omicron and other mutant strains, paxlovid can be taken orally as a small molecule drug, and the treatment method is convenient and controllable. We believe that China's prevention and control policy is expected to be gradually relaxed under the premise of order, and opening the door to the country will be the trend in the long run.
The agency further analyzed that the localization of specific drugs is worth looking forward to, and the changes of related industries are worth paying attention to. On the one hand, covid-19 specific drugs have huge market prospects in China. Paxlovid has been approved or authorized for emergency use in more than 10 countries around the world, and the production capacity can not meet all the markets. Moreover, covid-19 drugs are of strategic importance. It is worth looking forward to the localization of covid-19 specific drugs, and the small molecule pipeline under research is expected to accelerate its listing through emergency approval; Chinese enterprises with R & D capability and API integration will benefit. The approval of oral covid-19 specific drugs is expected to accelerate the R & D of small molecule specific drugs in China.
On the other hand, Pfizer's paxlovid needs a large number of APIs such as carbonic anhydride, which is good for Chinese api companies, such as Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) . Some Chinese cdmo enterprises have obtained relevant production orders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . It is expected that with the further expansion of production capacity, relevant cdmo enterprises are still expected to benefit.
AVIC Securities said that from the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation. []
[theme three ] Baijiu concept
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the Spring Festival Baijiu sales meeting market expectations. The high-end wine dynamic sales are stable and the gift giving scene is rigid; The secondary high-end dynamic sales are stable, the price is stable and the inventory is low. The resumption of banquet scene also has a positive impact on the secondary high-end demand. In addition, benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenarios, it will also accelerate the upgrading of consumption. The consumption atmosphere of local liquor is better than that in 2021. The consumption upgrading of Hui liquor and Su liquor and the performance of dynamic sales in the Spring Festival are more prominent. Long term consumption upgrading will continue to promote the structural differentiation of Baijiu industry, and focus on high-end products and famous brand products. The recovery of consumption scenarios will have a certain role in promoting the determination of the high-end Baijiu and the flexibility of the high-end liquor and regional liquor.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the market is more rational for the Baijiu selling liquor in the Spring Festival. A callback year ago has basically released the relative negative sentiment of the market for selling in the rush season. Tracking shows that Baijiu sales performance has been stable during the Spring Festival season, and market sentiment is expected to gradually warm up. At present, the high-end Baijiu Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) are still the first to be promoted. Pay attention to the opportunities of local wine and marginal changes of secondary high-end, and recommend Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
China Baijiu securities company said that China's economic development is steady and the trend of consumption upgrading is continuing. The per capita disposable income and high net worth population increase steadily. The demand for Baijiu, especially high-end and secondary high-end liquor, is definite in Qianhai. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is a highly differentiated wine industry. The high-end liquor has improved its brand strength and performance through raising prices, while the second high-end liquor enjoys the blank price band after the high-end Baijiu price rises. The upgrading of the secondary and high-end liquor products has the growth space of volume and price rising. Under the promotion of the strategy of upgrading products and selling the whole nation, the industry of high-end Baijiu has continued to improve. []
[theme IV ] coal concept
Capital Securities pointed out that according to the forecast of China electricity Union, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year in 2022. We believe that on the basis of this forecast, the total coal consumption will still maintain a positive growth rate in 2022. Superimposed on the steady growth this year, the infrastructure and manufacturing industry will continue to develop, the power demand will continue to grow, the coal side capacity limit cannot be reduced in the short term, and the price has risen rapidly since 2021, The upward movement of the price center has basically become a consensus. The fixed asset investment of coal caused by de capacity and "double carbon" has been at a low level for a long time. At present, the release elasticity on the supply side is still insufficient, and the future constraints on the supply side will continue. The reasonable profitability of coal enterprises plays an important role in the replacement and stability of new and old energy in the future, We expect that the coal price in 2022 may be expected to maintain the annual average level in 2021, and the high performance level is expected to be maintained this year. At present, the low PE valuation level of high-quality coal listed companies is generally 8-9 times. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the performance of coal stocks in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation and the valuation will have a certain repair space. The double factors of performance and valuation repair are superimposed, Configuration advantages are obvious.
Cinda Securities believes that the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, and the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector "both offensive and defensive", and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , which is the leader of low value and high dividend power coal; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) with both scarcity of resources and significant growth; Third, the Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) with great extension expansion potential brought by the improvement of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that steady growth at the policy level, relaxed coal consumption indicators and favorable demand expansion; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. []
