Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Cinda Securities: the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines
At present, the market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, and the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, and the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, while the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector "both offensive and defensive", and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , which is the leader of low value and high dividend power coal; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) with both scarcity of resources and significant growth; Third, the Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) with great extension expansion potential brought by the improvement of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group. []
Steel supply is about to resume
The Spring Festival has passed and steady growth has entered the start-up period. Safety accidents occurred frequently in 2021, with gas pipeline safety and urban waterlogging control being the most prominent. In the context of steady growth, the central government has set the tone to appropriately carry out infrastructure investment in advance and accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan. Regardless of the project and capital level, the underground pipe network and key water conservancy projects are the most determined support direction in infrastructure construction, and there is still much room for development of underground pipe network and major water conservancy projects. With the end of the holiday and the warmer weather, we believe that many policies are expected to begin to be fulfilled, and the demand for steel after the festival is expected to be released in advance. Superimposed on the current cost support, supply inhibition and demand release are imminent, and the steel fundamentals are about to recover.
We believe that after the Spring Festival, with the convening of the Winter Olympic Games and the advent of replenishment in spring, the expectation of steel production restriction is becoming stricter. On the demand side, with the steady growth of real estate and infrastructure and other policy effects, the focus of steel price may be gradually upward, superimposed with the weakening demand for raw materials by production restriction, and the profit of steel is expected to improve. Suggestions: (1) ordinary steel sector: Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) ; (2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ; (3) Underground pipe network: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . []
Capital Securities: the performance of coal stocks is expected to exceed expectations in 2022 and the valuation will have some room for repair
According to the forecast of China Electricity Council, the total electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year in 2022. We believe that on the basis of this forecast, the total coal consumption will still maintain a positive growth rate in 2022. Superimposed on the steady growth this year, the infrastructure and manufacturing industries will continue to make efforts, the power demand will continue to grow, the coal side capacity limit cannot be reduced in the short term, and the price has risen rapidly since 2021, The upward movement of the price center has basically become a consensus. The fixed asset investment of coal caused by de capacity and "double carbon" has been at a low level for a long time. At present, the release elasticity on the supply side is still insufficient, and the future constraints on the supply side will continue. The reasonable profitability of coal enterprises plays an important role in the replacement and stability of new and old energy in the future, We expect that the coal price in 2022 may be expected to maintain the annual average level in 2021, and the high performance level is expected to be maintained this year. At present, the low PE valuation level of high-quality coal listed companies is generally 8-9 times. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the performance of coal stocks in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation and the valuation will have a certain repair space. The double factors of performance and valuation repair are superimposed, Configuration advantages are obvious. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the profit logic of the iron and steel industry has been reconstructed, and the steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the special steel leader who can fulfill the high-profile of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022
Steady growth at the policy level, relaxed coal consumption indicators and favorable demand expansion; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022.
According to the recommendation idea of individual stocks, the performance growth of companies with high proportion of long-term association is more stable, and the valuation of companies with high proportion of coal in the market is more attractive. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) . []
Huajin Securities: under the background of stable growth, it is recommended to pay attention to highly elastic coking coal stocks and undervalued stocks with strong performance certainty
The coal industry is still optimistic. First, overseas prices are still strong, China's coal prices are operating at a high level, and the performance level is expected to be maintained; Second, the wind direction of carbon neutralization policy may change, which is conducive to the expected improvement of coal demand side; Third, at present, most coal enterprises publish performance forecasts, rising by different ranges. From the perspective of dynamic P / E ratio, the safety margin of coal stocks is high. Under the background of steady growth, it is suggested to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high elasticity and undervalued stocks with strong performance certainty, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) . []
Guosheng Securities: stick to core assets! Optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises
On February 9, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting to arrange and deploy to continuously stabilize the coal market price, and interviewed and reminded some enterprises with falsely high coal prices found in the monitoring. The main purpose is to urge the coal mines to speed up the progress of returning to work and production after the festival and ensure the stability of coal prices, which is bound to have an impact on the market sentiment.
However, considering that China's output has basically reached the limit, and the import supply function is limited under the upside down import, and the short-term demand is slightly released, the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Only after entering the off-season of demand in March will coal prices show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises.
In addition, the increase of Hong Kong coal stocks in this round is much higher than that of a shares, which also reflects that under the macro environment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, foreign capital pursues the target of high dividend, and the subsequent A shares are expected to catch up. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of "double carbon" is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials, green power), Yankuang energy (new materials, green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, focusing on Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) with expected asset injection. []
open source Securities: steady growth is gradually realized, and the demand for industrial metals is expected to be boosted
Although the steel market is still in the stage of demand vacuum, the macro expectation is good, promoting the industrial chain to take the initiative to raise prices, and the varieties such as thread, hot coil and medium and thick sector have generally increased by about 200 yuan compared with that before the festival. According to the rhythm of demand release in previous years, the downstream construction often does not improve significantly until after the 15th day of the first month. With the further recovery of transactions, the social inventory is expected to peak and fall around the fourth week after the Spring Festival. At this stage, the accumulated inventory of traders and steel mills is generally in line with expectations. Before the end demand is fulfilled in the peak season, the fluctuation of steel price is dominated by macro expectations.
According to the latest financial data, social finance increased by 6.2 trillion in January, an increase of 984.2 billion year-on-year; In January, the growth rate of social financing stock was 10.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, indicating that the steady growth is gradually being realized, and the demand for industrial metals is expected to be boosted. Based on a series of recent incentive policies, it is only a matter of time before broad money is transmitted to broad credit, and the recovery of credit will drive the repair of commodity demand, which is also the core reason for the rise of the cyclical sector. However, at the industry level, the current production restriction in Tangshan and other places is still relatively strict, so we need to be vigilant about the possibility of supply relaxation after the end of the future Winter Olympic Games.
As far as the segments are concerned, we focus on the areas where supply is relaxed but the marginal certainty of demand is improved, such as the water pipe industry, which mainly benefits from Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) and the rising price of raw materials under the recovery of hot metal production, such as Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) . []
