The long silent local auction market finally woke up in spring.
On February 17, the first round of centralized land supply for the new year in Beijing came to an end. In addition to one piece of land for auction, 17 pieces of land were sold in this round of land auction, with a total transaction price of 48.023 billion yuan, about 40% of the total amount of centralized land supply last year. Among them, some popular plots were scrambled by real estate enterprises, and up to ten real estate enterprise consortia participated in shooting the same plot.
China Resources Land (01109. HK), CNOOC real estate (00688. HK) and Greentown China (03900. HK) became active players in this local auction. Greentown successively won three plots in Chaoyang District, Shijingshan District and Yizhuang new town. China Resources land obtained two plots in Fengtai District and Shijingshan District, and CNOOC real estate also took two plots.
Industry insiders believe that compared with the last two rounds of last year, the first round of local auction in Beijing in 2022 has significantly warmed up. On the one hand, most enterprises actively participate because real estate enterprises can get land at the beginning of the year and collect money within the year; At the same time, there were obvious signs of recovery in Beijing’s property market last year. The land launched this time is generally in a good position, so it attracted competition from real estate enterprises.
However, the market heat is still lower than that of the first round last year, reflecting that the land market has not completely walked out of the low-temperature vortex. Many insiders said that the land market in some cities has recovered at present, but due to the large capital pressure of real estate enterprises, it is more rational to obtain land. It is expected that the first batch of land market will stabilize at a certain range in 2022.
there is a “dispute” on popular plots
At the beginning of the year of the tiger, Beijing took the lead in completing the first round of land supply, receiving a total of 48.02 billion yuan in two days.
Different from the frequent shooting last year, the Beijing new year land sales plan attracted the attention of a large number of real estate enterprises as soon as it was launched. Data show that in 2022, the first batch of centralized land supply in Beijing transferred 18 residential land, with a total starting price of about 49.18 billion yuan. As of 3 p.m. on the 16th, the registration was completed, and more than 50 real estate enterprises participated in the competition.
The most popular plot of Changping Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) Life Science Park has become the hot plot of this local auction, and a total of 10 real estate enterprises have signed up. In addition, there are 8 real estate enterprises registered in the plot of cuigezhuang Township in Chaoyang, and more than 4 real estate enterprises registered in wangsiying Township in Chaoyang, Jiugong town in Daxing District and jijiamiao plot in Yuquanying, Fengtai.
In the off-line auction on the 17th, the plot of Changping Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) Life Science Park not only attracted real estate enterprises to bid together, but also caused a “dispute” episode due to fierce on-site competition.
When the shooting started in the afternoon, ten real estate enterprises and real estate enterprises, including Jianfa, China shipping, Greentown, China Resources, Yuexiu, Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) , poly + Jindi + Construction Engineering, jointly reflected themselves and began offline bidding. According to regulations, if the land price ceiling of 2771.5 million is reached, it will be converted to competitive existing house sales. If it reaches the scale of all residential buildings, it will be converted to on-site lottery.
After China Resources took the lead, it reached the upper limit of land price in just a few minutes, and real estate enterprises such as CCCC, Jianfa and Greenland actively raised their cards. However, when the ceiling price was reached, the placards were raised at the same time. The host decided that the last placard raising enterprise was Jianfa, but it was questioned by Greentown and CCCC. After nearly one hour of adhesion, it was determined as Jianfa.
In the subsequent auction for existing house sales, there was no enterprise bidding unexpectedly, and Jianfa finally won the “star plot”. It is reported that the supporting facilities such as rail transit, commerce and education around the plot are relatively complete. According to the regulations, 3500 square meters of “affordable rental housing” shall be built on the plot, and the sales guide price is 62000 / square meter.
Chaoyang cuigezhuang plot, with a starting price of 3.78 billion, needs to be equipped with 4400 square meters of affordable rental housing. After the auction, the real estate enterprises competed fiercely. Finally, after 55 rounds of bidding, Greentown obtained the upper limit of 4.347 billion land price. In addition to the construction of affordable housing, there is 41000 square meters of existing housing sales area.
It is worth noting that in this local auction, the situation of real estate enterprises in the form of consortium has been greatly reduced.
Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, believes that enterprises often choose joint land acquisition because of sharing capital pressure and development risks. However, due to the frequent breaks in the capital chain of most real estate enterprises last year, enterprises have increased their concerns about choosing cooperation methods to a certain extent; On the other hand, the Beijing land transfer document clearly stipulates that “who takes the land, who develops and who sells”, coupled with the pressure of high-standard construction schemes, the profit space is limited, so enterprises tend to “fight alone”.
It is noteworthy that real estate enterprises are also more cautious in raising cards and pay more attention to profit space.
Take the wangsiying plot in Chaoyang District as an example. Five enterprises including China shipping, Jindi + poly, Beijing urban construction and China Resources participated in the on-site bidding. In the actual bidding, only Zhonghai and Jindi + Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) made repeated quotations, and the latter finally won the bid with 4.24 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 8%. The sales restriction price of the project is 71000 yuan / m2.
China Index’s “land intelligence” said that when the last quotation of the above plot was made, the host adjusted the bidding range to 10 million yuan, and there was still no enterprise quotation. It can be seen that the price game between the land transferor and the developer is very delicate.
substantial recovery is still difficult
Compared with last year, the first round of land supply in Beijing in 2022 was stable without a large number of streaming photos.
Pan Hao, senior analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that enterprises such as CNOOC, China Resources, poly, urban construction and shoukai have high enthusiasm for participation, which is directly related to the relatively good capital situation of stable real estate enterprises. The land acquired at the beginning of the year has the opportunity to form the sales reserve value this year, which has also become one of the important factors for real estate enterprises to pay attention to this round of local auction.
Nevertheless, the current land market is still difficult to recover. The number of participating enterprises is lower than that in the first round last year, and the differentiation of enterprise bids is also very obvious.
“The current round of local shooting in Beijing reflects the current situation and development trend of the market to a certain extent.” Guan Rongxue believes that the current capital situation of real estate enterprises is still the main factor for the relative convergence of investment actions in the land market.
In addition, the construction of “affordable housing” and “competitive existing housing sales” are the highlights of this local auction. Statistics show that Beijing has further strengthened the sales expectation of existing houses, and 9 plots need to compete for existing house sales, which is significantly higher than that of the third batch in 2021. However, in the final actual transfer, only one transaction was made by competing for existing houses.
“The capital pressure of enterprises remains, mainly due to the relatively long construction cycle of existing houses, which has a great test on the capital turnover ability of real estate enterprises.” Guan Rongxue said.
Looking at the national land market, the overall land auction in January was also hot. According to the data of Kerui Research Center, the total construction area of national operating land supply in January was 94.85 million square meters, down 39% month on month.
From the perspective of enterprises, according to the data of China Index, the total land acquisition amount of Top100 enterprises in January was 83.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 62.6%. The land acquisition amount of Greentown China, China Resources Land and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) January 2022 ranked among the top three. “Affected by various financial regulation policies, the capital of real estate enterprises is under pressure, and the willingness and ability to obtain land are reduced.”
In February, Beijing took the lead in land auction, and Fuzhou, Xuzhou and other places also announced the first batch of land supply plans this year. Among them, 20 plots of land have been launched in Fuzhou, which is planned to be sold publicly from March 16 to March 17; Hefei plans to transfer 32 pieces of land in the first round of centralized land supply this year, and the starting time of the auction is March 17.
In order to improve the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land, all localities are also optimizing the transfer conditions, such as reducing the proportion of margin, reducing the scale of allocation and self-supporting. However, whether the recovery of the land market can become a trend remains to be seen.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House enterprise group, believes that recently, except for the recovery of individual urban land markets, most urban land markets are still cold. Under the pressure of debt repayment, some real estate enterprises have no money to take land, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude is difficult to be reversed significantly. In addition, the acquisition and M & A opportunities of real estate enterprises have increased this year, the overall land market may not recover quickly in 2022.
Taking Hefei, which released the land supply plan, as an example, the China Index Research Institute said that after the land auction in Hefei reached the maximum price, the price difference between the roughly estimated building and land was between 5200 yuan / m2 and 9400 yuan / m2. Taking into account the improved developer threshold and quality requirements, the remaining profits of this local auction will directly make the small volume housing look forward to but step down.
