On February 17, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the economic operation of nonferrous metals industry in 2021. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association predicts that in 2022, the prices of major nonferrous metals will generally show a high and volatile pattern; The fixed asset investment of non-ferrous metal industry is roughly the same as that in 2021; The export volume of non-ferrous metal products is still expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate may slow down, and the import of mining raw materials such as copper and aluminum is expected to remain stable or increase slightly.
Jia Mingxing, vice president and Secretary General of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, introduced that in 2021, China’s nonferrous metal production maintained a steady growth, fixed asset investment resumed positive growth, the profits of nonferrous metal enterprises above Designated Size reached a record high, the work of ensuring supply and price stability achieved remarkable results, and the international competitiveness continued to improve.
In 2021, the output of ten common non-ferrous metals was 64.543 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the output of refined copper was 10.487 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; The output of primary aluminum was 38.503 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; The amount of six kinds of concentrate metals was 6.791 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; Alumina output was 77.455 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Copper output (about 2.7 million tons of repeated statistics among enterprises have not been deducted) was 21.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%; Aluminum output (about 13 million tons of repeated statistics among enterprises have not been deducted) was 61.052 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%.
In 2021, the total investment in fixed assets completed by the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 4.1% year-on-year. Among them, the investment in fixed assets completed by mining and beneficiation increased by 1.9% year-on-year; The investment in fixed assets after smelting and calendering increased by 4.6% year-on-year.
The export of major non-ferrous metal products was better than expected. According to the data released by China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the total import and export trade of nonferrous metals (including gold trade) was US $261.62 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%. Among them, the import volume was 215.18 billion US dollars, an increase of 71.0% year-on-year; The export volume was 46.45 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 54.6%. In 2021, China imported 5.529 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%.
At the same time, the prices of major non-ferrous metals achieved a high callback. In 2021, the average annual price of copper in China’s spot market was 68490 yuan / ton, a record high, up 40.5% year-on-year, but 8.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of 2021. The average annual increase rate of spot price of aluminum reached 1891.4% in the first quarter of 2021, but the average annual increase rate of spot price was 46.5%, which was lower than that of the previous three quarters of 2021.
In addition, the profits of non-ferrous metal enterprises above Designated Size hit a record high. In 2021, 9031 non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises above Designated Size (including independent gold enterprises) achieved a total profit of 364.48 billion yuan, an increase of 101.9% over 2020 (calculated by comparable caliber, the same below). Among them, independent mining enterprises realized a profit of 51.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.5%; Smelting enterprises realized a profit of 208.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.6%; Processing enterprises realized a profit of 104.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.9%.
“From the perspective of copper and aluminum price forecast, in 2022, copper and aluminum prices will rise and downward factors coexist.” Jia Mingxing believes that copper supply will increase in 2022, but there are few consumption highlights, and copper prices will face downward factors. Aluminum prices will also show a high callback trend. In the medium and long term, aluminum prices are still expected to be better than other metals.
