Under the blessing of the first half of the Spring Festival transportation, the passenger transport performance of major airlines began to pick up on January 6, 2022, and the performance of small airlines was brilliant.
As of February 16, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ( China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , 600021. SH), Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) , 601111. SH), China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ( China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , 600115. SH), Hainan Airlines Holding Co.Ltd(600221) ( Hainan Airlines Holding Co.Ltd(600221) , 600221. SH) Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , 601021. SH), Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ({603885. SH) successively announced the operation data of January 2022.
Covid-19 epidemic continues to occur sporadically. In January 2022, thanks to the blessing of the first half of the Spring Festival transportation, the total demand of the whole civil aviation industry for Spring Festival transportation this year is generally better than that of last year. According to the flight steward’s “operation monitoring and analysis of the first half of the 2022 Spring Festival transportation”, on the one hand, due to the lack of the impact of the national “local new year” policy, on the other hand, due to the release of the pent up demand for returning home last year, the passenger transport performance of the six major airlines is generally better than last year, but has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level. According to the operation data of airlines in January combed by surging journalists, the passenger transport performance of HNA and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and the freight performance of Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) were unexpected.
A transportation analyst told surging news reporters that transportation capacity investment and turnover are key indicators of aviation company’s operation data. Among them, the input of passenger transport capacity and freight transport capacity represent the supply of airlines, and the passenger turnover and cargo and mail turnover represent the market demand. The passenger occupancy rate and freight and mail carrying rate are the comprehensive indicators representing the performance of passenger transport and freight transport.
According to the January operation data of six Airlines combed by surging news reporters, in terms of passenger transport performance, the supply of passenger transport capacity and market demand of six airlines in January showed an increasing trend compared with last month. In terms of comprehensive indicators of passenger transport performance, only HNA performed well. In terms of freight performance, the supply of freight capacity and market demand of six Airlines fluctuated slightly in January. In terms of comprehensive indicators of freight performance, only Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) performed well.
As of the closing on February 17, the shares of aviation stocks fell across the board. Among them, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) was reported at 7.21 yuan, down 2.17%; Air China Limited(601111) was reported at 10.15 yuan, down 2.68%; China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) was reported at 5.67 yuan, down 1.56%; Hainan Airlines Holding Co.Ltd(600221) was reported at 1.96 yuan, down 1.51%; Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) was reported at 56.28 yuan, down 3.45%; Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) was reported at 16.94 yuan, down 2.31%.
in January, the passenger transport performance of Airlines was bright as a whole, and the freight performance fluctuated and fell
Specifically, in terms of passenger transport capacity investment (calculated by available seat kilometers), the six airlines have increased compared with last month. Among them, HNA’s passenger transport capacity increased the most month on month, reaching 65.56%. Followed by Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , the passenger transport capacity increased by 35.64% month on month. Compared with the same period last year, except that the input of HNA and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) passenger transport capacity decreased, the rest increased steadily. Especially Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , the year-on-year increase was the highest, reaching 26.01%. The investment in foreign passenger transport capacity is relatively bleak, with a year-on-year decrease of 30-70% among the six airlines.
In terms of passenger transport demand, compared with the same period last month, the passenger transport demand of six Airlines (passenger transport companies) is still relatively weak, but the passenger transport demand is still relatively weak compared with that of the same period last year. Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ranked second with a month on month increase of 28.53% and first with a year-on-year increase of 27.17%.
In terms of passenger seat rate, HNA ranked second, with 69.69%, and it is also the only airline company to achieve both month on month and year-on-year growth. In addition, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) has the highest seating rate, reaching 70.81%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, ranking second.
Specifically, in terms of freight capacity investment (calculated by available ton kilometers – freight and mail transportation), China Southern Airlines is the only airline company whose data in January decreased compared with that of last month and the same period last year. Except that the freight capacity of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines decreased slightly month on month, the other four airlines increased compared with the previous month. Among them, the supply of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) freight capacity recovered the most sharply compared with the previous month, with a month on month increase of 31.89%, followed by HNA, with a month on month increase of 29.09%. In addition, although the supply of freight capacity of HNA has significantly recovered compared with last month, it has not recovered to the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.28%. And Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) two small airlines, according to the supply of freight capacity, are showing a steady recovery trend.
In terms of cargo and mail turnover (calculated by revenue ton kilometers – cargo and mail transportation), the demand for cargo capacity of the three major airlines decreased compared with the previous month. Among them, the cargo and mail turnover of China Southern Airlines reached 624 million, but the month on month decline and year-on-year decline were the highest, 7.17% and 11.75% respectively. The Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) two small airlines also showed a steady recovery trend according to the demand for freight capacity. Among them, the demand for freight capacity of Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) increased by more than twice year-on-year.
In terms of cargo and mail carrying rate, among the six major airlines, only Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) 1 month’s data showed an increasing trend compared with last month and the same period, with a month on month increase of 4.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.69%. The remaining five Airlines showed a slight decline compared with the previous month. Among them, the freight and mail carrying rate of China Southern Airlines, Air China and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) Airlines decreased slightly year-on-year.
Comparison of operation data of six airlines in January and mapping by surging journalists
In the recovery of passenger and freight transportation in January, the performance of the three major airlines was lower than that of HNA, spring and autumn and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . Earlier, civil aviation expert Lin Zhijie told surging journalists that under the impact of the epidemic on the aviation market, the passenger transport performance of major airlines of central enterprises is often under more pressure. While medium-sized airlines such as Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) are “small and easy to turn around”, they are more flexible in adjusting flight capacity and ticket price policies.
According to the flight steward data, the number of flights in the first half of the Spring Festival transportation in January Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) increased by 47.0% year-on-year in 2021 and more than 20% year-on-year in 2019. The “low-cost” operation of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) is a major advantage of the aviation department during the epidemic. Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) executives pointed out in the 2022 spring transportation exchange meeting that during the fight against the epidemic, the core competitiveness of the spring and Autumn period to achieve flexible and coordinated transportation capacity and increase transportation capacity is still the cost.
On December 8 last year, the main aviation sector of HNA Group was officially transferred to Liaoning China Fangda Group Co.Ltd(000055) . Fang Wei, chairman of the board of directors, proposed the goal of building a world-class airline with first-class safety, first-class service and first-class profit. The freight business of HNA aviation group also made a good start. In January 2022, the freight revenue increased by 62% compared with the same period in 2021, and the net profit increased by 182% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit reached the highest level in the same period in history.
In addition to the bright freight performance, the strong demand for routes in Hainan Province during the Spring Festival transportation improved the passenger transport performance of HNA in January.
According to the flight steward data, due to the strong demand, the average ticket price of multiple routes in the first half of the Spring Festival transportation is higher than that in the same period of 2021, which is mainly reflected in routes to Hainan Province and routes from Shanghai to Northeast China. The average ticket price of economy class in the first half of this year’s Spring Festival transportation is 585 yuan, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year in 2021.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) executives talk about the survival core of Aviation Division
Affected by the rising oil price and the continuous impact of the epidemic, the three major airlines continued to lose money last year, with a total advance loss of more than 36.8 billion yuan. And Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) thanks to the low-cost operation, HNA holdings, affected by the restructuring, is expected to turn losses into profits in 2021. The net profits attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 are expected to be 35 million yuan – 52 million yuan and 4.5 billion yuan – 6.2 billion yuan respectively. While Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) is also facing continuous losses due to the impact of the epidemic. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be about – 420 million yuan – 330 million yuan.
In terms of the continuous impact of oil price on the Aviation Division, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) executives pointed out in the 2022 Spring Festival transportation exchange meeting that considering the lag of oil price, the main impact on the aviation cost side may be reflected from February to March. The increase from February to march is expected to be in double digits compared with 2020 and 2019. This increase is mainly made up by the collection of fuel surcharges and the rise of naked ticket prices driven by the recovery of their own demand.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) executives said that at present, the ticket price in the industry is relatively strong, and the industry may be more active in revenue management when the price starting point is high and the cost is under pressure. Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) compared with the industry, the advantage is that the seat rate is 10-15 percentage points ahead. Therefore, by levying fuel surcharge, the seat rate of more than 90% can fully cover the cost. “Therefore, we believe that oil price is not the core issue. The core still lies in the liberalization of travel policy and the industry’s cognition and management behavior on the ticket price and cost side.”
For the future outlook, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) executives said that the market is expected to usher in a gradual recovery period similar to the end of March to may 2021. If there are no special circumstances on May Day, there is expected to be an obvious peak. Referring to the trend of last year, the market may reach or approach the level of 2019. Next, under the condition of good epidemic control, the expectation of summer transportation will be higher than that in 2021. In terms of international routes, there may be some loosening in winter and spring this year. For Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , we expect the Chinese market to gradually enter the right track. As long as the Chinese market enters an orderly recovery rhythm, the whole civil aviation operation will have completely different results from last year and the year before last.
