On February 17, according to the national development and Reform Commission, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current price formation mechanism of refined oil, China's gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) will increase by 210 yuan and 200 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on February 17, 2022.
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, this is the third rise in the retail price of refined oil since 2022, continuing the last rise in the retail price at the end of last year, realizing "four consecutive rises".
Hu Xue, a refined oil analyst at Zhongyu information, told the Securities Daily that since the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, international crude oil has been dominated by shocks. Initially, under the interaction of the decline of crude oil and refined oil inventories and the restart of Iran nuclear negotiations, international oil prices mostly maintained a high consolidation; With the further escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the potential US European sanctions may further aggravate the tension of energy supply, and crude oil began to rise significantly, once reaching a new high in nearly seven years. Affected by this, the retail end of refined oil is expected to increase continuously.
"China's refined oil prices rose again, mainly affected by several factors." Xie logistics, senior investment adviser of Jufeng investment consulting, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that, on the one hand, the international crude oil price continued to be high and geopolitical risks increased, making the oil price continued to rise; On the other hand, the relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced. On the supply side, OPEC maintains the production increase policy, but the ineffective production increase in many countries leads to the decline of inventories. On the demand side, with the gradual decline of the epidemic, the global economy begins to recover and the oil demand is also recovering. The EIA predicts that the global oil demand in 2022 will be higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic.
Hu Xue said that after the price adjustment, in terms of logistics and transportation, taking trucks with a load of 50 tons, a heavy load of 100 kilometers and a fuel consumption of about 40L and 10000 kilometers per month as an example, the monthly fuel consumption cost will increase by about 720 yuan after the price adjustment. In terms of private cars, take models with a monthly running distance of 2000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example. After the price adjustment, private car owners will increase the fuel cost by about 27.2 yuan per month.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) the research report said that due to the weakening impact of the epidemic and the recovery of travel demand, the international oil price has been in the upward channel since the beginning of 2021. Recently, due to the influence of offshore politics and other factors, it has soared again since December 2021, and the current price is close to $100 / barrel. China's refined oil price lags behind the international oil price and has rebounded since the beginning of 2022. In the short term, driven by the international oil price, China's refined oil price still has room to rise.
For the future trend, Hu Xue believes that based on the current crude oil price calculation, the retail price limit of refined oil in the next round is still expected to rise, and the wholesale link is expected to continue to run stronger after the break. At present, with the surge in US inflation and the support of OPEC production, the market continues to bet on tight global oil supply and suck up international oil prices for a short time. Therefore, it is expected that the retail price limit of refined oil is expected to impact the "five consecutive rises". However, Iranian negotiators claim that the agreement is in sight or limit the rise of oil price.
In Xie's view, the follow-up should also pay attention to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC production increase, progress in the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement and other factors. In the context of the continuous rise of international oil prices, combined with the traditional law of positive and negative follow-up of China's oil prices in the past, it will be a high probability that China's refined oil prices will rise again in the future.
China's refined oil price will be adjusted every ten working days according to the change trend of international oil price. The next round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on March 3, 2022.
