The price of lithium carbonate stood firm at 400000 yuan / ton. After the festival, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. According to the data of SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 430000 yuan / ton on February 17, 2022, standing firm at 400000 yuan / ton, and the cost pressure of raw materials in the upstream of lithium battery increased further.
The price of lithium in the upper reaches rises rapidly, and the cost pressure in the middle reaches of lithium battery is controllable. According to the calculation of our battery cost linkage model, according to the price of SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network on February 17, 2022, under the current metal price, the cost of NCM ternary cell is about 0.76 yuan / wh, and the total cost of lithium iron phosphate cell is 0.64 yuan / wh. Compared with the price of lithium carbonate at 300000 yuan / ton (SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network on January 7, 2022), the cost of NCM ternary cell increased by about 11%, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate cell increased by 12%. Transmitted to the vehicle end, according to the lithium carbonate price rising from 300000 yuan / ton to the current price, the cost change of single cell is about 2000 yuan, and the cost change proportion of single cell is about 1.3%, which has a controllable impact on the vehicle end cost.
According to the price of xinlune lithium battery on February 17, 2022, the average price excluding tax of three yuan square power cell is 0.84 yuan / wh (regardless of model), and the average price excluding tax of lithium iron phosphate square power cell is 0.69 yuan / wh. The cost pressure caused by the price rise of upstream raw materials is further exacerbated.
Lithium battery enterprises have made positive progress in favorable price, and the supply chain management and control and cost advantages of leading enterprises are prominent. Due to the rise of raw material prices and the decline of subsidies and other factors, the prices of many terminal models have been adjusted, and the price adjustment range is within thousands of yuan, which has little impact on the terminal demand. Battery companies have made positive progress towards downstream favorable prices. Combined with low-cost and long-term single inventory, technological progress and scale effect, they can better digest the pressure of upstream price rise. Leading enterprises also smoothed price fluctuations through industrial chain layout and inventory, and further highlighted supply chain control and cost advantages.
Under the background of high lithium price, focus on lithium battery recycling. In this case, the economy of lithium battery recovery is highlighted under the background of rising lithium price. According to the calculation method in the report “power battery recovery: cost reduction and breaking through lithium constraints to form a closed loop of lithium battery cycle – carbon neutralization depth report (IV)” issued on March 24, 2021, according to the current metal prices at a historical high, that is, the prices of lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese are 193, 18, 685 and 44200 yuan / ton respectively (2022 / 2 / 7 price), The market space for lithium / nickel / cobalt / manganese recovery of ternary batteries is expected to be 51.6/264/245/1.8 billion yuan in 2030, and the market space for lithium metal recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to be 18.1 billion yuan in 2030. Lithium battery recycling helps to make up for the supply gap of upstream resources, especially lithium resources. Lithium battery recycling has broad market space and development prospects. Attention: Bangpu cycle ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , etc.
The outlook of the industrial chain remains high and firmly optimistic about the general trend of electrification. In 2021, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the demand for power and energy storage batteries is broad. According to SNE research, in 2021, the total installed capacity of global power batteries was 297gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102%. From the perspective of industrial chain production scheduling, the demand boom of 22q1 lithium battery remains high, and the valuation has been adjusted back to about 30 times PE in 22 years after digestion.
With the support of performance certainty and prosperity, we will focus on: (1) subdivision leaders with good competition pattern, (2) new technological trends such as 4680, high nickel, silicon-based negative electrode, carbon nanotube and composite collector. Attention: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , beiteri, Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
Risk analysis: the sales volume and installed capacity of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Risk of price rise of raw materials; Increased competition; Risk of technical route change.
