Northbound capital, known as smart money, is aggressively increasing its positions in cement stocks recently. As of February 16, 11 stocks have obtained northward capital increase. Meanwhile, the cement sector rose 9.28% after the Spring Festival, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (up 3.11%).
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, analyzed the reporter of Securities Daily and said: "the northward capital warehouse addition of individual stocks in the cement sector is not only related to the recent rise in the price of cement spot market, but also related to the supply and demand fundamentals of the rise in the price of raw materials in the upstream of the cement industry. In the future, it will also be driven by policy factors such as' steady growth '."
add 11 cement stocks to the North fund
The cumulative increase of sector during the period exceeded 9%
After entering the year of the tiger, northward capital moves frequently and seems to be particularly favored for the cement sector. During this period, the net number of shares purchased in this sector was 60692300 shares. As of February 16, 11 cement stocks have been added to the north capital. Both Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Bbmg Corporation(601992) bought more than 10 million shares; The purchase quantity of seven individual shares including Tibet Tianlu Co.Ltd(600326) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Fujian Cement Inc(600802) , China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) also exceeded 1 million shares.
In addition, the market performance of the cement sector is also commendable. From February 7 to February 16, the cement sector rose by 9.28% in total. Among them, Ningbo Fuda Company Limited(600724) increased the most, reaching 45.04%; The 12 stocks, including Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.Ltd(002671) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials And Chemicals(Group)Co.Ltd(600425) , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Sichuan Golden Summit (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(600678) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , also increased by more than 10% during the period.
cement price is not light in the off-season
the price adjustment notice reveals the original reason
The rise in cement prices in some regions may be an important factor for the cement sector to win the favor of northward funds and push up the index.
According to the data of cement big data research institute, on February 15, the price of clinker along the river in Anhui increased by 30 yuan / ton again. After the Spring Festival, the price of clinker increased for two consecutive rounds, with a cumulative range of 60 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the FOB price of clinker of large factories along the river is 420 yuan / ton - 430 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. Recently, the prices of cement and clinker in East China, Central South and southwest China took the lead in rising. The price of clinker in Meizhou, Guangdong increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the price of cement in many places in Yunnan increased by 30 yuan / ton - 60 yuan / ton. However, judging from the national cement price index, as of February 15, the index has fallen by 6.22% this year.
The period from the Spring Festival to the 15th day of the first month is generally the traditional off-season of the cement industry. For this round of price rise, Fu Zezheng, senior researcher of Yuanrong investment and stock department, believes that it is mainly driven by the demand side. He told the reporter of Securities Daily: "With the large number of construction projects started after the Spring Festival, the demand for cement is exploding. This year, special bonds are issued in advance, and infrastructure projects in many places across the country are starting on a large scale, which will inevitably drive the rise of cement prices. At the same time, the rise of prices presents regional structural characteristics. In some areas where construction started earlier, such as Yunnan and Guangdong, the quotation of cement has increased, and the national cement price index has declined "Down month on month."
Look at the production side, Liu Youhua, research director of private placement network, told the reporter of Securities Daily: "When the demand for cement is in the off-season, the rise of cement price is more caused by the rise of production cost. There are two reasons: first, the carbon neutralization and environmental protection policy puts forward higher requirements for the cement industry, which further promotes the technical upgrading cost of cement; second, the upstream raw material coal has been at a high level."
The purchase of coal is an important expenditure for the production of cement. When asking the Secretary of Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) , an investor asked, "what is the percentage of the cost of producing 1 ton of cement and coal?" Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) the Secretary said: "according to the relevant data in 2020, the proportion of raw coal in the cost of main business is 26%, and the cost of coal per ton of cement is about 58 yuan." From the market situation of thermal coal, the performance of thermal coal futures is very prominent in the two trading days after the Spring Festival. It has reached a new high in the previous three months, up to 898.6 yuan / ton, but it has been callback to around 780.6 yuan / ton.
From the perspective of inventory, according to the data of China cement network, the average inventory of clinker in China is about 50%, which is at a low level in recent years, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, which is about 30% to 40%.
In fact, the price adjustment notice of some enterprises tells the reason of this round of price increase. Some enterprises said in the notice that "the production cost of the company has increased significantly due to the rise of upstream raw materials, national dual control of energy consumption, staggered peak production and other factors", "according to the current changes in the cement market, the price of raw materials has continued to rise, and various factors such as environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction have led to the continuous increase of the company's cement production and manufacturing cost".
the central government set the tone of "steady growth"
three factors support the uplink space
In the context of the "steady growth" policy, the issuance of special bonds in 2022 will advance infrastructure investment. Local bonds made a good start in January, issuing 698.9 billion yuan of local bonds that month, an increase of 336.5 billion yuan year-on-year. In addition, social finance data showed that the increment of social finance scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Both strongly support the demand for capital construction cement.
Looking forward to the future of the cement market, many market participants said that the "steady growth" policy may become an important driving force to boost the continuous rise of cement prices in the future. With the gradual improvement of the performance of cement enterprises, the investment value of the cement sector is highlighted.
Lin Jiayi said: "the 'steady growth' policy has an urgent demand for the formation of the cement market. Since July 2021, the downstream real estate market of the cement industry has continued to operate weakly. In order to stabilize economic growth, the government has focused on stimulating infrastructure investment in the mode of local debt, which will inevitably improve the expectation of upstream demand for infrastructure, cement and so on."
"Three factors support the upward trend of cement prices this year." Fu Zezheng believes that, "First, on the cost side, the rising price of upstream raw materials and the cost of environmental protection increase the total production cost; second, on the supply side, under the dual carbon policy, the dual control of energy consumption will suppress the growth of supply; third, on the demand side, infrastructure investment is expected to support the demand growth in the first half of the year. In addition, the real estate policy has also ushered in marginal improvement, and the increment of real estate investment is expected to run through the whole year."
Liu Youhua said: "We are optimistic about the future performance of the cement sector. First, the valuation of the cement sector is low and has an obvious margin of safety. There is the possibility of valuation repair. The debt of cement companies is low, and the competition pattern of the industry is basically determined, and the demand for cement is guaranteed. Second, the environmental protection policy is stricter, the threshold of the cement industry is higher and higher, small and medium-sized cement companies are facing elimination, and the industry concentration will increase Step up and benefit the leading companies in the cement industry; 3、 Under the background of "steady growth", the construction of affordable housing is expected to accelerate, and the performance of the cement industry may usher in a dilemma reversal. "
