The news that Jinxin reproductive, a giant in the assisted reproduction industry, acquired the property building in Shenzhen to expand production has aroused the attention of the industry; For this expansion of production capacity, the market believes that this expansion means that the assisted reproduction industry has a large market space and the industry concentration is increasing. In the secondary market, as of the closing on February 16, assisted reproduction (bk0939) closed at 1127.43, up 1.12%. On the disk, Jinxin reproduction (01951. HK) and other stocks showed an upward trend on the 16th.
People in the assisted reproductive industry told the financial associated press that among several assisted reproductive technologies, IVF has the highest success rate, has the most rigid demand, and the penetration rate is increasing; In terms of the whole field of assisted reproduction, with the increase of the proportion of women of high childbearing age, the overall sector of assisted reproduction is also gradually expanding.
license scarcity + market space expansion, industry concentration continued to increase
Recently, Jinxin reproductive announced that it plans to acquire Shenzhen Hengyu Lianxiang with RMB 1.727 billion, whose main assets are property buildings. For this acquisition, the company said that mainly in view of the fact that Shenzhen Zhongshan billion yuan is close to the total production capacity, in order to grasp the expected growth of population demand in Shenzhen and Dawan District in the future, which will lead to the growth of ARS (assisted reproduction) demand in this area, the acquired property is used for the expansion of Zhongshan Hospital, including the expansion of VIP business and the provision of better medical treatment links.
People in the assisted reproduction industry told the financial associated press that the future obstetric production capacity of Jinxin reproduction in Shenzhen is expected to be 2000-3000 test tube babies per year, with an estimated income of more than 100 million yuan; Outside Shenzhen, Jinxin reproductive group has layout in Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Kunming and the United States.
The expansion of Jinxin reproduction is related to the improvement of industry market space, market concentration and the difficulty in obtaining the license of assisted reproductive technology. According to the survey report on the current situation of infertility in China jointly issued by the China Population Association and the National Family Planning Commission, the infertility rate in China has risen from 2.5% - 3% 20 years ago to about 12% - 18%. The number of patients exceeds 40 million, that is, one in eight couples has infertility, an increase of about 10 times in 20 years. According to the prospectus data of Hong Kong stock Jinxin reproduction, the scale of China's assisted reproduction market has reached 25.2 billion yuan in 2018 and is expected to reach about 50 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth of 14.5%.
The above industry analysts told the financial associated press that behind the expansion of the industry scale, the postponement of childbearing age and the opening of multiple birth policy have increased the proportion of high childbearing age women, who are the main group of assisted reproductive consumption. At the same time, the financial Associated Press reporter noted that unhealthy lifestyle and work pressure are also the reasons for infertility. In addition, in recent years, the state has encouraged commercial insurance companies to launch insurance products for "infertility" adjuvant treatment, which has reduced the medical burden of "infertility" patients to a certain extent and accelerated the expansion of the assisted reproduction industry.
On the supply side, the above analysts told the financial Associated Press: "at present, the license approval of assisted reproduction institutions is still relatively strict, which can be seen from the number of assisted reproduction plans in various provinces and cities in the future (the trend of strict review of relevant licenses)." It is reported that China's assisted reproductive services market has a high access threshold, and medical institutions are facing high requirements and long cycle to obtain the reproductive center license.
According to the notice of the general office of the National Health Commission on printing and distributing the guiding principles for the application planning of human assisted reproductive technology (version 2021), the number of assisted reproductive institutions added by provinces (regions and cities) shall not exceed 15% of the total number of assisted reproductive institutions by the end of 2020. According to the data of the National Health Commission, the number of medical institutions approved to carry out human assisted reproductive technology in 2020 was only 536, mainly concentrated in central and southern China and East China.
The factors affecting the expansion of the industry, such as the scarcity of licenses, are increasing. Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) analysts believe that in the next five years, assisted reproduction licenses are still scarce, and Jinxin reproduction, the leader of assisted reproduction industry, is still expected to further improve the industry concentration by relying on "endogenous growth + M & a".
However, from the perspective of competition pattern, at present, China's assisted reproductive industry is still relatively scattered, and public hospitals dominate. According to the financial Associated Press reporter, the leading institutions of assisted reproduction in China mainly include CITIC Xiangya, the reproductive Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinxin reproductive hospital, the Third Hospital of Beijing Medical College and the Ninth Hospital of Shanghai Jiaotong University. According to the 2020 annual report of Jinxin reproduction, the company's assisted reproduction business in China ranked third in the Chinese ARS market in 2018, and conducted 21000 IVF egg retrieval cycles, accounting for about 3.1% of the Chinese market share.
IVF technology is relatively rigid and has strong demand, and the penetration rate of IVF treatment is expected to accelerate
According to the financial Associated Press, the treatment of infertility mainly includes conventional drug treatment, surgery and human assisted reproductive technology (Art), including artificial insemination, embryo transfer and in vitro fertilization embryo transfer (IVF-ET); Artificial insemination is divided into husband artificial insemination (AIH) and donor artificial insemination (AID). According to reproductive biology and endocrinology data, about 52% of infertile couples in China rely on assisted reproductive technology to solve reproductive problems.
(Note: infertility treatment plan, from Jinxin reproductive prospectus, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities sorting, etc.)
Artificial insemination (AI) and in vitro fertilization (IVF) are the most widely used in assisted reproductive technology. It is reported that artificial insemination sends sperm to the female reproductive tract through non sexual intercourse to make women pregnant. IVF technology fertilizes sperm and eggs in vitro through artificial methods, and transfers them to the mother's uterus for development and delivery after embryo development and maturity. According to the securities data, the cost of artificial insemination in China is generally 5000 yuan / cycle, while the cost of IVF technology is generally 25000-40000 yuan / cycle.
\u3000\u3000 "In fact, several assisted reproductive technologies are not competitive. IVF technology is usually the choice after the failure of drug treatment. It is also the technology with the highest success rate among assisted reproductive technologies. Globally, the success rate is about 50%, the United States can reach 60%, and the success rate of Chinese institutions is more than 50%. Although the price is relatively high, the success rate of IVF technology is considered , its price is high and its rigid demand is strong. " The above analysts said. According to the data of reproductive society of Chinese Medical Association, in 2017, the clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate of artificial insemination of Chinese husband were 26.46% and 22.89% respectively, and the clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate of conventional IVF were 53.45% and 43.55% respectively.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities predicts that the IVF egg retrieval cycle will increase to 2556800 in 2030. Assuming that the average price of a single IVF cycle remains unchanged at 35000 yuan, the scale of the IVF industry will increase to 89.49 billion yuan in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 11.17% from 2016 to 2030. In 2016, China's IVF penetration rate was 10.2%, far lower than the level of 56.1% in Japan in the same period. With the change of patients' age structure, the improvement of patients' ability to pay and the improvement of patients' awareness, it is expected that the IVF penetration rate is expected to increase to 27% in 2030.
It is worth mentioning that with the gradual increase of the penetration rate of assisted reproduction industry, the scale of investment and financing in the primary market in this field has also gradually expanded. According to the financial Associated Press reporter, in recent years, Beikang medical, Anxin ouyun, haoyunbang, Weituo biology and other related companies have obtained different amounts of financing, and the investment behind them includes Huayan capital, Qingke asset management, etc.
In terms of listed companies, Dajia Weikang (301126. SZ) recently said that its Jiachen hospital is in the preparation and preparation stage of carrying out assisted reproduction business; The auxiliary reproductive medicine business of Xi'An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) (000516. SZ) is running the husband sperm artificial insemination project; Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) (300199. SZ) has a variety of drugs in the field of Obstetrics, gynecology and assisted reproduction, such as oxytocin. Recently, it has completed the product layout of polypeptide drugs in the field of Obstetrics, gynecology and assisted reproduction.
