Today (February 17), the three major A-share indexes opened low. After the weak consolidation at the beginning of the session, they gradually fluctuated upward, and the stock index further rose strongly near noon. From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors rose more or fell less, the outbreak of resource stocks, led by sectors such as lithium mine and phosphorus chemical industry, the same performance of targets such as power equipment, environmental protection and new energy vehicles, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Huaxin securities previously said that the A-share volume can still be maintained at a low level, which is a warning signal. Under the background of no expansion of volume can, it is difficult to undertake the large unwinding selling pressure above. Therefore, from the perspective of the market, the Shanghai stock index does not accelerate the rise in large quantities, and there is probably the possibility of profit taking.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme one ] stone oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC's monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that we expect the global crude oil supply and demand pattern to remain tight in 2022, so we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. The tight pattern of crude oil supply and demand fundamentals continues, and the geopolitical situation is changeable, which has brought great uncertainty to the short-term crude oil supply. We believe that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022, continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector and the upstream oil and gas enterprises represented by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) . In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs. []
[subject II ] cobalt lithium
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that lithium prices in different regions of the world differentiated in 2021, showing the impact of long order sales mode in overseas markets on product prices. In 2022, with the elimination of the impact of long-term single pricing, it is expected that the global lithium price will resonate upward, and the price of lithium compounds exported by China to Japan and South Korea will also accelerate. Imported low-cost lithium carbonate products will continue to disturb the lithium price in China's market in 2022, or lead to high volatility in China's lithium price. Under the background of global lithium price resonance upward, integrated lithium producers will fully benefit from the advantages of guaranteed supply and low cost. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that as the demand of new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise's expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the lithium sector is "volume" rather than "price" in the long term. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the gap between supply and demand widened again at the end of the year, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. The retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials in November show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains the bullish view of lithium price; (2) Nickel: the purchase demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchase enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
[theme III ] new energy vehicles
Anxin Securities pointed out that it is expected that the traditional vehicle and new energy vehicle industries will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, due to the price increase of some models caused by the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, orders are expected to be slightly affected in the short term. With the recovery of price acceptance of new energy vehicles after the festival, combined with the continued strong terminal demand and abundant unsold orders, the annual sales volume is expected to maintain a high growth. In terms of traditional cars, with the continuous improvement of chip shortage, the orders stored in the early stage are expected to speed up delivery; With the launch of new products by auto enterprises, the demand will be released, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that it is optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. It is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limited price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid or market segments with strong certainty of sales growth, it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors affecting the climbing.
The agency further mentioned that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e is expected to be 5-5.5 million, and it is optimistic about car enterprises with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Ping An Securities pointed out that in January, the outlook of new energy vehicles continued, and new energy vehicles ushered in a surge in prices. From the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January announced by some new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January maintained a year-on-year high growth, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January is expected to reach about 450000 units.
Due to the decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, some car companies have raised the price of new energy vehicles, with a price increase range of about thousands of yuan. Car companies are relatively cautious in raising prices. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in January may be partially overdrawn, and the demand in subsequent months. The new energy vehicle market in February and March remains to be observed, but in the long run, new energy vehicles will still maintain a high outlook, It is expected to achieve a 50% growth rate in 2022. []
[theme four ] environmental protection
Guosheng securities mentioned that in the past three years, the performance of the environmental protection sector has been sluggish, and the valuation and positions are still low. The introduction of environmental protection REITs provides new equity financing tools. Pollution control operations such as urban sewage and waste treatment, solid waste and hazardous waste treatment are key industries, and enterprises with strong technical advantages and high barriers are valued. 1. Growth Waste incineration companies with strong certainty pay attention to Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) (ROE industry-leading and sufficient orders), Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) (steady growth and obvious valuation advantages); 2. Hazardous waste disposal companies with rich projects in hand, strong technology and high barriers pay attention to Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) (new leader of hazardous waste and layout of the whole industrial chain), Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (leader of soil remediation benefiting from financing improvement); 3. Water companies whose value is expected to be revalued pay attention to Hongcheng water industry (Jiangxi sewage market has great potential, and the valuation and dividend rate are attractive).
In addition, Capital Securities pointed out that under the background of steady growth, infrastructure investment is an important way, and environmental infrastructure investment will also become an important field of steady growth. Environmental protection enterprises in the fields of sewage treatment, domestic waste treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment and recycling will usher in more business opportunities. At the same time, the improvement of the price charging system in the field of environmental protection is expected to further improve the profitability of environmental protection enterprises. We maintain a "optimistic" investment rating for the industry and suggest focusing on Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) and other companies.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that steady growth + undervalued value + high dividend + new track, and comprehensively recommended low-carbon environmental protection assets: 1) environmental asset value + Growth Logic 2.0: a) steady growth + new tools + new fields, from single dimension to combination. ① Policy +: double carbon macro policy, strengthening and increasing infrastructure investment; ② Mode +: REITs improves the return on assets and opens the growth ceiling; ③ Space +: the second growth curve. B) The value of cash flow driven by marketization is further highlighted: policy tools such as CCER green power, waste incineration bidding and marketization of water price enhance the certainty of return and improve cash flow. 2) Under the new logic, the valuation anchor has been significantly improved: undervalued + low position + growth, improved model and cash flow, and improved valuation. []
