Deliver the A-share market information at the first time, observe the market trend, grasp the rise and fall logic and tap investment opportunities.
lithium ore concept explosion Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and other multi stock limit Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and other sharp rises
Lithium concept rose sharply on the 17th. As of press time, Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) rose ahead. On the news side, the sales agreement price of electronic lithium carbonate bill of lading reached 470 yuan / kg. In addition, Tesla signed a large lithium ore purchase order with Australian lithium miners to purchase 100000 dry metric tons of spodumene concentrate in the first year.
The agency pointed out that the disturbance of lithium production in Australia continued, the output fell month on month in the fourth quarter, and the lithium price is expected to exceed US $3000 / ton in the first half of 2022. In addition, many governments said they would strengthen industrial protection and establish independent industrial chains. With the increasing expansion of lithium demand, salt lake brine lithium resources will be developed under the strategic demand of diversified types and supply guarantee.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the selling price of lithium concentrate in Australia rose to US $1600-1800 / ton in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 100% month on month compared with the previous quarter. Benefiting from the rapid rise in the price of lithium compounds and the change of sales mode of Australian lithium mining enterprises, the price of lithium concentrate accelerated upward in the fourth quarter of 2021. According to the guidance data of relevant enterprises, the price of lithium concentrate in Australia is expected to rise to US $3000 / ton in the first half of 2022. The sharp rise in the price of lithium concentrate will increase the cost of China’s lithium salt production enterprises and further boost the rise of lithium price.
Bohai Securities said that it is expected that the supply and demand will continue to be tight from 2021 to 2023, and the lithium price center will continue to rise. It is expected that the supply and demand difference from 2021 to 2023 will be – 151000, – 99000 and – 34000 tons of LCE respectively. There is a substantial shortage of lithium raw materials. At the same time, it is estimated that the downstream has a good acceptance of the price increase. It is expected that the price center will continue to rise in 2022 and 2023, and the industry profit will be guaranteed. Enterprises integrating resource processing will have core advantages. Main reasons: 1. Due to the explosive growth of demand, the scarcity of lithium resources is prominent. Lithium salt processing enterprises need to layout in multiple regions and types, stabilize the industry position of upstream lithium resources, and increase their performance through the release of upstream resource capacity; 2. Through the integration of resource processing, the supply and quality of raw materials can be guaranteed in high boom times, and the cost can be reduced with low-cost raw materials in low boom times, so as to grasp the long-term advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
phosphorus concept stocks are active ! Henan Qingshuiyuan Technology Co.Ltd(300437) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) and other daily limit Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) and other higher
Phosphorus stocks had a strong intraday trend on the 17th. As of press time, Henan Qingshuiyuan Technology Co.Ltd(300437) “20cm” limit, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) limit, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) and other gains were ahead; The concept of fluorine also rose, Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) led, Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) and other outstanding performances.
In terms of news, on February 15, the joint negotiation group on China’s import of potash fertilizer reached an agreement with the international potash fertilizer supplier canpotex to determine the import price of standard potassium chloride in 2022 as cfr590 US dollars / ton, which is valid until December 31, 2022. From the price over the years, this year’s large contract price has reached a new high in recent five years, an increase of $343 / ton compared with the contract price of $247 / ton in 2021.
East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that the rise in the price of large contracts is closely related to the sharp rise in the global market price of potassium chloride in 2021. In China, as of February 15, 2022, the average market price of potassium chloride in China was 3475 yuan / ton, up 70.85% year-on-year. The quotation of some manufacturers has been close to 4000 yuan / ton (equivalent to 630 US dollars / ton). Internationally, as of February 14, 2022, the FOB prices of potassium chloride in Russia and Vancouver were reported at US $625.5/t and US $610.0/t respectively, up 217.5% and 197.6% respectively compared with the beginning of 2021. The global price of potassium chloride returned to the upward channel after 12 years of downturn. China’s potassium chloride is highly dependent on imports, and its price is greatly affected by the international market. China is short of potassium resources. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, China’s dependence on potassium chloride import remained between 50% – 60% from 2017 to 2021, which belongs to a variety highly dependent on imports. Therefore, China’s potassium chloride price is greatly affected by the international market. The large contract signed with canpotex will become an important reference standard for the pricing of potassium chloride in China, and the price of potassium chloride in China is expected to rise further.
In addition, with the advent of spring ploughing and the release of demand, the price of potassium chloride is expected to remain high, and the potassium fertilizer sector continues to benefit. As of February 14, 2022, China’s potassium chloride inventory was 258000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, a decrease of 38.4% compared with the beginning of last year, and the inventory was at a low level. At the same time, the advent of spring ploughing and increased demand further support the high price operation, and the industry continues to prosper, which is good for the potash fertilizer sector. The agency said that under the background of the upward business cycle of the potash industry, relevant leading targets may benefit, such as Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zangger mining, Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) .
the environmental protection sector rose strongly! Bceg Environmental Remediation Co.Ltd(300958) and other stocks rose by the limit, and the construction of urban environmental infrastructure is expected to accelerate
The environmental protection sector rose strongly in the session on the 17th. As of press time, Qingdao Greensum Ecology Co.Ltd(300948) , Bceg Environmental Remediation Co.Ltd(300958) “20cm” limit, Yonker Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(300187) rose about 14%, Zhejiang Zone-King Environmental Sci&Tech Co.Ltd(688701) , Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) rose about 12%, Kingland Technology Co.Ltd(000711) , Tus Environmental Science And Technology Development Co.Ltd(000826) , Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) , Lingnan Eco&Culture-Tourism Co.Ltd(002717) , Beijing Sdl Technology Co.Ltd(002658) and other limits.
In terms of news, recently, in order to accelerate the construction of urban environmental infrastructure, improve the modernization level of infrastructure, and promote the construction of ecological civilization and green development, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the National Health Commission jointly issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of urban environmental infrastructure.
The opinions pointed out that we should pay attention to systematic planning and overall promotion, appropriately advance investment and construction, and improve the supply capacity of urban environmental infrastructure. In terms of sewage treatment, the layout and scale of sewage treatment facilities should be optimized as a whole. Large and medium-sized cities can promote construction in accordance with the principle of moderate advance, and appropriate development space should be reserved for established towns.
In terms of domestic waste, the construction of waste incineration facilities will be accelerated in areas with a daily domestic waste removal volume of more than 300 tons in urban built-up areas. At the same time, the “opinions” clearly defined the development objectives of the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan.
The Opinions also pointed out that efforts will be made to improve the price formation and charging mechanism for the disposal of sewage, domestic waste, hazardous waste and medical waste. For the subdivided fields where the marketization development is relatively mature and the price and fee can be adjusted through the market, the price and fee standard shall be determined according to the marketization method. For the subdivided areas where the market-oriented development is insufficient and it is difficult to fully adjust the price and fee temporarily by relying on the market, take into account the public welfare attribute of environmental infrastructure, and improve the price and fee standard in accordance with the principle of covering cost and reasonable income
Capital Securities said that under the background of steady growth, infrastructure investment is an important way, and environmental infrastructure investment will also become an important field of steady growth. Environmental protection enterprises in the fields of sewage treatment, domestic waste treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment and recycling will usher in more business opportunities. At the same time, the improvement of the price charging system in the field of environmental protection is expected to further improve the profitability of environmental protection enterprises. Maintain the “optimistic” investment rating for the industry, and it is recommended to focus on Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) and other companies.
this year’s shipment of AR / VR devices may exceed expectations, and high-quality content developers in the media field are expected to usher in new development opportunities
According to trendforce Jibang consulting research, the shipment of AR / VR devices will be upgraded to 14.19 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 43.9%. The growth momentum comes from the increased demand for long-distance interaction of the epidemic and the price reduction strategy of oculus Quest 2. Microsoft hololens 2 and oculus Quest 2 rank first in AR and VR respectively.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that after experiencing the trough period from 2016 to 2019, the VR / AR industry will achieve steady development in 2020, and the overseas consumer VR market will be gradually opened. The path for the industry to open the flywheel may be “technological progress – hardware experience upgrading – increase in the number of users – increase in the sales of software / content manufacturers – improvement of content Ecology – increase in the number of users”. In this path, user experience is the key pain point, and the launch of subversive terminal (oculusquest2), content / application (3a masterpiece “halflife: alyx” and leisure game “beat Saber” has become the core catalyst. At present, the “flywheel” of consumer VR / AR industry has begun to rotate initially.
The hardware side is an ecological entrance, and the leading manufacturers include: (1) Internet manufacturers: the platform side has the advantages of user ecology, and mostly enter the hardware market through investment and M & A, including meta (oculus accounts for 75%, realitylab’s annual revenue of US $2.274 billion in 21), byte beat (Pico’s top 3 market share in China), valve (steamvr platform + halflife: alyx content advantage) Iqiyi (film and television resources + hardware, China’s top 5 market share). (2) Consumer electronics manufacturers: their main products are interconnected with VR head display in the industrial chain and have the ecological advantages of end users, including host manufacturers Sony (PSVR’s global market share is top 3), htcvive (commercial pcvr’s leading), Huawei (lightweight VR split head display), apple (deep cultivation of underlying technology, VraR head display is under research). Hardware manufacturers combine their own advantages and focus on the layout of the whole industrial chain of “bottom technology – terminal equipment – Software – content application”. At present, the industry concentration is high. For consumer VR all-in-one machines, cost-effective devices open the market, and the content ecology of distribution platform has become the key to manufacturer differentiation. In the future, the birth of phenomenal terminal equipment and content applications will also bring strong catalysis to the sector. For the media internet field, high-quality content developers are expected to usher in new development opportunities under the change of technology. Suggestions: Tencent, Netease, iqiyi, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) , Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) .
the special plan for the development of aviation logistics in the 14th five year plan was released. Pay attention to the leading companies related to the industrial chain
China Central Television reported that the Civil Aviation Administration officially released the special plan for the development of aviation logistics in the 14th five year plan at a press conference held on February 16, which is the first time that China’s civil aviation has prepared a special plan for the development of aviation logistics. The plan specifies that by 2025, CAAC will initially build a safe, intelligent, efficient and green aviation logistics system, significantly enhance the aviation logistics support capacity, reduce costs and increase efficiency, significantly improve the independent and controllable ability of the system, and continuously improve the service capacity of aviation logistics for high-end manufacturing, postal express, cross-border e-commerce and other industries.
Anxin Securities believes that in the post epidemic era, with the development trend of cross-border e-commerce and the double upgrading of China’s consumption and industrial structure, aviation demand is expected to obtain long-term growth power. The epidemic has given birth to the globalization of “residential economy”, and cross-border e-commerce has ushered in an outbreak. Under the normalization of the epidemic, China’s manufacturing environment is stable and its supply chain system is perfect. It still has comparative advantages in the world. It is believed that the trend of domestic goods going to sea and the export of high-tech products is expected to remain. It is estimated that cross-border e-commerce is expected to bring 600-900 billion market space to aviation logistics. In addition, China’s industrial upgrading, the steady improvement of residents’ consumption level, and the demand for high value-added and time-effective products will also drive the growth of air cargo demand.
Policies support the high-quality development of air cargo and pay attention to the air cargo industry chain. Compared with the professional cargo aviation hub, aviation logistics enterprises and huge cargo aircraft capacity resources in the United States, China has obvious shortcomings. The epidemic has prompted the state to pay a significant increase in the importance of air cargo. In the future, policies are expected to continue to support the introduction of cargo aircraft, the operation of large air cargo hubs and the operation of air cargo enterprises, so as to ensure the stability of China’s and global supply chains. It is suggested to focus on the development opportunities of the air cargo industry chain, including relevant air logistics enterprises, express delivery enterprises and freight forwarding logistics enterprises. Highlight the leading companies related to the industrial chain: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (the largest cargo airline operating in China + the largest cargo owner of air cargo in China); It is suggested to pay attention to: Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (China’s leading air freight forwarder, which also receives the core resources of cross-border e-commerce logistics of M & a card slot), Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) (the first share of mixed reform of air freight), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , JD logistics, Sinotrans Limited(601598) .
the national pesticide industry development plan of the 14th five year plan is issued, and the prosperity of the pesticide industry is expected to continue
On February 16, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and other eight departments jointly issued the national pesticide industry development plan for the 14th five year plan, which proposed that by 2025, the pesticide industry system will be more perfect, the industrial structure will be more reasonable, the supporting role for agricultural production will be continuously strengthened, and the level of green development and high-quality development will be continuously improved. Promote the merger and reorganization, transformation and upgrading of pesticide production enterprises, become bigger and stronger, and cultivate a number of competitive large and medium-sized production enterprises. By 2025, efforts will be made to cultivate 10 enterprises with an output value of more than 5 billion yuan, 50 enterprises with an output value of more than 1 billion yuan and 100 enterprises with an output value of more than 500 million yuan, and the output value of pesticide production enterprises in the park will be increased by 10 percentage points.
Shengang Securities pointed out that from a global perspective, the pesticide industry presents an oligopoly pattern. After years of fierce competition and major mergers and acquisitions, the concentration of the world pesticide industry has become more and more obvious. Although the overall output of pesticides in China is in the forefront of the world, the industry concentration is low. With the intensification of industry competition and the increasing pressure of environmental protection, China’s pesticide industry is entering a new round of integration period, and the industry concentration is expected to be further improved in the future.
There is still much room for improvement in pesticide demand in the future. On the one hand, pesticides can ensure national food security when the area of cultivated land is limited. According to the calculation of FAO, the use of pesticides can cause an average annual food loss of 30% – 40%. Increasing the yield per unit area by applying pesticides can increase the food supply. On the other hand, the improvement of pesticide exports also has a positive impact on demand. China’s China’s one belt, one road agriculture, will become a region where the growth of pesticide exports will increase as the total volume of pesticide exports accounts for about 60% of the total pesticide production in China. With the entry of RCEP and the signing of the trade agreement, the agriculture along the way will become larger than the major countries.
With the intensification of industry competition and the increasing pressure of environmental protection, the concentration of China’s pesticide industry has gradually increased. Under the background of prominent food security problems and continuous improvement of exports, the prosperity of the pesticide industry is expected to continue. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) and other leading pesticide enterprises with high technical barriers and obvious scale advantages.
related reading:
lithium prices soared! The concept of lithium ore in A-share and Hong Kong stocks soared! Securities companies: focus on resource processing integrated enterprises (with list)
