In early trading today, the gem index rebounded sharply by more than 1%. The salt lake lithium extraction sector set off a tide of limit trading, East China Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002140) , Shenzhen Sunrise New Energy Co.Ltd(002256) and other sectors were closed one after another in the afternoon. The most eye-catching sector is the strong limit of 140 billion market value Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , and the net inflow of main funds in early trading exceeded 1.5 billion.
This is the first time that lithium salt leader Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) rose in three months. Previously, with the overall correction of overvalued new energy sector in the fourth quarter of last year, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) retreated by more than 20% in a single quarter. Last week, its share price hit a new low of nearly 60 days. On the news, it was said that the production of Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) quinana lithium hydroxide project in Australia was delayed, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) the relevant person in charge told the media that during the normal trial operation of the project, there was no delay at the investor exchange meeting of the project party.
Another news that has a more profound impact on the market is that the constitutional assembly of Chile recently preliminarily adopted a proposal to promote the nationalization of copper, lithium and other strategic assets, or affect Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ‘s rights and interests in local lithium resources. The relevant person in charge said that the nationalization of (lithium mine in Chile) has not yet been actually implemented. Previously, the company has signed a contract with the local government and obtained the lithium resource quota before December 31, 2030, which will not be changed. In addition, assuming that the nationalization policy of lithium mine in Chile is implemented, how to deal with the mining equity acquired by the company locally (the Chilean government) also needs to give specific plans.
Even since the weakness of the new energy sector in the secondary market, the dispute over the supply of lithium ore has never stopped. On Wednesday, Tesla signed a new lithium ore purchase order with Australian lithium miners, and will gradually purchase 100000 thousand metric tons (DMT) of lithium concentrate from liontown resources from 2024.
On the same day, China’s four new energy vehicle battery supply chain giants “met” Yuxi, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , and Huayou holdings signed a cooperation agreement on the whole industry chain project of new energy battery with Yuxi City. The project is divided into three phases, with a total investment of 51.7 billion yuan in the first two phases.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that as the upstream raw material necessary for the vigorous development of electric vehicles for a long time in the future, countries have transferred lithium resources to national strategic resources, which means that overseas acquisitions will be affected not only by previous geopolitics, but also by countries’ concerns about future industrial development, and overseas lithium resource acquisitions will become more difficult than before, At the same time, it also affects the release rate of global medium and short-term lithium resource production. Lithium salt prices may remain at a high level for at least two years in order to stimulate and accelerate the process of global resource development.
Due to the problems of production line construction cycle and the disturbance of the epidemic situation, it continues to affect the supply of lithium resources worldwide, and the downstream demand continues to increase. From mid November 2021, the price of lithium continues to rise and break through the 400000 yuan mark, but the rush of downstream enterprises continues.
Considering that the epidemic and labor shortage affect the supply of concentrate, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the price of lithium ore will exceed US $3000 / ton in the first half of 2022.
According to the data of SMM, listed companies and the summary of Huaxin securities, in 2022, the supply increment of lithium in China was about 108900 tons, and the supply increment of lithium from salt lakes was 8.1 tons, which is still a big gap compared with the overseas supply increment. At the same time, due to the continuous promotion of global low-carbon emission reduction and the demand for new energy construction, the demand for lithium resources remains high.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Yu Jiayi and Ning Ziwei, analysts of nonferrous metals team, recently said in the conference call that, based on the average price of 350000 yuan, the dynamic PE of some companies with increased self supply rate in the industry has fallen to about 8 in 2022. Even if the industry is valued according to the cycle, it is still undervalued. Moreover, it is almost certain that the price will be stable and high this year and next. From the perspective of valuation repair, the value of companies with high self supply rate or marginal improvement such as Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) may be further highlighted.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the high persistence of lithium price is quite solid
lithium prices soared! The concept of lithium ore in A-share and Hong Kong stocks soared! Securities companies: focus on resource processing integrated enterprises (list attached)
