Since the beginning of this year, the cost of natural gas has continued to soar, resulting in the decline of fertilizer production, supply shortage and soaring price in EU countries.
The food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said recently that with the intensification of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, there may be a shortage of global fertilizer supply, which will push up the production costs of grains and other crops and lead to higher food prices. Market participants expect that the demand for chemical fertilizer in crop production in developed countries will continue to remain high this year, which may lead to a shortage of chemical fertilizer supply in emerging economies and developing countries.
the supply of potash fertilizer is tight, and the import price exceeds 4400 yuan / ton
According to the statistics of potashcrop, at present, more than 90% of the production capacity of the global potash fertilizer market is concentrated in more than 10 enterprises in seven countries: Canada, Russia, Belarus, Germany, Israel, Jordan and China. In 2020, the output of potash fertilizer in Canada was about 14 million tons (equivalent to K2O), accounting for 32% of the global output. The output of Russia and Belarus were about 7.6 million tons and 7.3 million tons respectively, accounting for 18% and 17% of the global output.
As natural gas is the main raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizer, if the situation in Russia and Ukraine further intensifies, Ukraine’s fertilizer industry, which depends on Russia’s natural gas supply, will fall into crisis. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizer, the world’s second largest exporter of potassium fertilizer, and the export volume of phosphorus fertilizer ranks third in the world.
In December last year, the US sanctions on Belarus potash fertilizer came into effect, which will further aggravate the tense situation of global potash fertilizer supply and promote the continuous rise of prices. Since the beginning of this year, the cost of natural gas has continued to soar, resulting in the decline of fertilizer production, supply shortage and soaring price in EU countries.
According to the data, the price of potassium chloride in most parts of the world still showed an upward trend. Compared with the end of last year, the FOB spot prices in northwest Europe, the former Soviet Union, Israel and Jordan increased by US $17.5/ton, US $12.5/ton, US $8.5/ton and US $4 / ton respectively.
According to data treasure statistics, as of February 16, the import price of potassium chloride rose to 4416.67 yuan / ton. Analysts expect that with the advent of spring farming in the northern hemisphere, rising demand and further release of inventories will support the high price of potash fertilizer.
7 potash fertilizer concept stocks, net profit increased by more than 20% in advance
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, China’s current potassium chloride production capacity is about 8.6 million tons / year, the annual output is 7.04 million tons in 2020, the import volume reaches 8.66 million tons, and the external dependence is about 50%.
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are 10 companies with potash related business in a shares. As of the closing on February 16, the market value of A-Shares of these companies totaled 285.7 billion yuan. The market value of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) with the largest market value is close to 170 billion yuan. The company’s existing potassium chloride production capacity is 5 million tons / year. As of the first half of last year, the company’s potassium chloride business revenue reached 5.024 billion yuan.
Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) its main business is potassium mining, production and sales of potassium fertilizer. The company owns 35 square kilometers of potassium salt deposits in Laos, with a total reserves of 1.002 billion tons, converted into 152 million tons of pure potassium chloride. In the first half of last year, the company’s potash business revenue was 227 million yuan. The company said at the end of January that the 1 million ton reconstruction and expansion project in Laos has been put into operation and is expected to reach production in the near future.
Zangge mining has always focused on the development, production and sales of potassium fertilizer industry, and has developed into the second largest potassium chloride production enterprise in China. The mining area of the company is located in Chaerhan Salt Lake and Dalangtan Salt Lake, of which Chaerhan Salt Lake is the largest soluble potassium magnesium salt deposit in China. In the first half of last year, the company’s potassium chloride business revenue was 787 million yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the total revenue.
Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) its main business includes steel structure and potash fertilizer. The announcement on January 3 shows that the “phase I project of 1.5 million tons of potassium chloride project (500000 tons) of potassium magnesium salt mine in GanMeng Province, Laos” project has been fully started. On January 26, the company said on the interactive platform that the models of potassium chloride products are complete, including powder and crystal products.
According to data treasure statistics, as of the closing on February 16, the overall trend of potash concept stocks has been relatively flat since January, with an average decline of 2.99% during the period. Only Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) 2 shares rose by more than 5%. Compared with the highs in one year, Sichuan Hongda Co.Ltd(600331) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) , Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.Ltd(600251) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and other retreats exceeded 30%.
From the performance express and forecast, according to the lower limit of net profit forecast, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Zangger mining, Sichuan Hongda Co.Ltd(600331) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zjamp Group Co.Ltd(002758) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) , Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) and other 7 shares are expected to increase by more than 20%. Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) the pre increase rate is the highest. The company expects the net profit to be 830 million yuan to 930 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 12.92 times to 14.6 times. When talking about the reasons for the change of performance, the company pointed out that in 2021, the company had stripped off its trade and shipping business and focused on the core business of potash fertilizer. At the same time, the international price of potash fertilizer increased and the sales of potash fertilizer products increased compared with the same period of last year.
Statement: all information contents of databao do not constitute investment suggestions. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.
