During the year, the price of caustic soda rebounded sharply, and the increase of solid caustic soda has exceeded 30%.
Driven by the continuous improvement of the whole chemical market, the price of caustic soda rose steadily after the Spring Festival. According to Baichuan data, on February 17, the latest quotation of solid caustic soda was 4562 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.12% compared with yesterday, 14.2% after the Spring Festival and 32% during the year.
In October last year, the highest price of solid caustic soda exceeded 6000 yuan / ton, and then entered a cliff like decline. The lowest price once fell to about 3000 yuan per ton, and the price halved. In December, the price of caustic soda stabilized and rebounded. After entering 2022, the price rose sharply.
manufacturer maintenance + downstream resumption of work is good, and caustic soda supply is tight
After the Spring Festival, the price of caustic soda continued to rise, which was completely unexpected. From the perspective of the underlying reasons, it is mainly due to the maintenance of some main chlor alkali enterprises, the continuous improvement of the export market and the good resumption of work in downstream industries.
From the supply side, some major chlor alkali enterprises have been overhauled, and the start-up of the unit is stable at about 82%. Some major enterprises in Shandong have been overhauled, and the supply of goods in the market has decreased; Individual enterprises in East China are overhauled, and there are many exports, so the supply is tight.
From the demand side, the resumption of work in downstream industries is good. About 80% of the downstream alumina industry started work. The production capacity suspended before the Spring Festival due to the Winter Olympic Games also resumed after the festival. The production lines affected by the epidemic in Guangxi are also resuming production. The resumption of work in the non aluminum industry after the festival is also better than in previous years. The resumption rate of large and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the first week after the festival basically reached 80%. In addition, driven by the continuous improvement of the export market, the supply areas in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other coastal areas are tight, which makes China’s supply tight and provides strong support for the current market.
After the Spring Festival, international crude oil continued to rise, forming absolute support for the whole chemical industry. As of the latest, the latest price of Brent crude oil is $93, which once reached nearly $97 this week, breaking the $100 mark is close at hand.
the performance of caustic soda concept stocks generally increased last year
From the perspective of a shares, there are 21 listed companies whose business includes caustic soda. From the perspective of specific companies, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co.Ltd(600618) is one of the leading enterprises in China’s caustic soda industry. The caustic soda business revenue reported in the first half of last year was nearly 600 million yuan. Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) is a leading chlor alkali enterprise. The company’s main products include PVC, ion-exchange membrane caustic soda, viscose fiber and viscose yarn. Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical Industry Group Co.Ltd(601568) has an 800000 T / a caustic soda production unit.
Affected by the rising price of chemical products, the performance of caustic soda concept stocks generally improved last year. Among the above 21 companies, except 4 that did not disclose the performance forecast, all the others increased or reversed their losses in advance, and the net profit of 14 companies doubled. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) net profit increased by more than 10 times, and individual stocks such as Weifang Yaxing Chemical Co.Ltd(600319) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) increased by more than 4 times.
The valuation of individual stocks in caustic soda sector is generally low, Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Inner Mongolia Junzheng Energy & Chemical Group Co.Ltd(601216) , Shandong Huatai Paper Industry Shareholding Co.Ltd(600308) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) and other stock market profit ratios are less than 10 times. The share prices of several stocks retreated sharply this year, Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) , Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) , Malion New Materials Co.Ltd(300586) fell by about 10% this year.
