New energy vehicles and fuel vehicles continue to “run counter” in growth.
On February 14, the passenger car Federation disclosed the national passenger car market analysis report in January. From the report, we can see that the new energy vehicles show a strong growth trend – in January, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.092 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 347000, a year-on-year increase of 132.0%.
In terms of penetration rate, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is as high as 19.0%, which is more than 10 percentage points higher than the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 2021. The retail penetration rate was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period in 2021
(data source: Passenger Association)
As we all know, 2022 is the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles. With the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the rise of prices of basic resources such as lithium ore, new energy vehicle enterprises may face certain cost pressure in the future. From the market feedback, users also have a certain degree of consensus and expectation on the price changes after the decline of new energy.
In this context, how will the growth rate of new energy vehicles evolve, and what development opportunities will automobile enterprises face? Next, we might as well find the answer through the latest data report of the automobile industry.
With diversified development, the wholesale sales of more than 10 auto enterprises exceeded 10000
Combined with the January production and sales data of several auto enterprises, it is not difficult to find that at present, new energy vehicles are gradually becoming the sales highlight of auto enterprises.
According to the production and sales data disclosed in Byd Company Limited(002594) (01211), in January 2022, the company’s automobile sales volume was 95400, a year-on-year increase of 125.05%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 93200, with a year-on-year increase of 361.73%.
The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles by the “new forces” of car making should not be underestimated: in January, the monthly delivery of Xiaopeng vehicles was 13000, a year-on-year increase of 115%; Ideal car (02015) followed, with a monthly delivery of 12000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 128%; Nezha and Weilai delivered 11000 and 9700 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 402% and 33.6%.
At the same time, in January, the new energy passenger vehicle market also showed the development characteristics of “diversified development”. Take the composition of new energy vehicle sales in January of Byd Company Limited(002594) as an example. The sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are equally divided – the sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles during the period were 46386 and 46540, so as to jointly consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy.
If the growth rate of the above new energy vehicle enterprises still can not explain the current development trend of new energy vehicles, let’s take another look at the development rate of new energy vehicles of traditional vehicle enterprises.
According to the production and sales data disclosed by relevant auto enterprises, the sales volume of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (02238) vehicles in January was 237200, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 19121, a year-on-year increase of 115.21%, doubling the growth. In the same period, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) achieved 455600 vehicle sales, a year-on-year increase of 13.02%, including 72200 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.54%.
In addition, the data disclosed by the passenger Federation also further shows the development trend of penetration from traditional vehicle enterprises to new energy vehicle business.
According to statistics, there were 11 auto enterprises with wholesale sales of more than 10000 in January, including: Byd Company Limited(002594) 93101, Tesla China 59845, SAIC GM Wuling 40007, Chery 21179, Geely 17036, GAC AIAN 16031, SAIC passenger 14414, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 13781, Xiaopeng 12922, ideal 12268 and Nezha 11009.
From the above data, it is not difficult to see that among the 11 enterprises, only 3 are new forces in car making, and the other 8 are traditional car enterprises, which means that traditional car enterprises are gradually penetrating into the new energy vehicle market.
The year before the withdrawal of subsidies, the accelerated release or steady growth of new energy vehicles?
On the last day of 2021, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 was officially implemented.
The Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022, which said that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 20221. This also means that 2022 will be the last year of the subsidy policy. In other words, new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy the new energy subsidy policy.
With the official implementation of this policy, the growth pressure on new energy vehicles is also transmitted to vehicle enterprises.
Some insiders said that after the subsidy decline of 30%, the proportion of the subsidy amount in the vehicle price will be further reduced, especially the subsidy of less than 5000 yuan for plug-in hybrid models and the terminal discount of tens of thousands of fuel vehicles no longer have any competitive advantage, and the new energy market will further turn to market driven. In addition, with the decline of subsidies, the cost pressure of automobile enterprises will also increase, and the profit space will face challenges. With the technical indicators unchanged, the demand for lithium iron phosphate with better cost performance will be further increased.
However, combined with the policy direction, driven by the “double carbon” goal and the “double integral” policy, new energy vehicles will still maintain a high growth trend in the future.
According to the research report data released by Minsheng securities, the long-term prediction is that “the global demand for new energy vehicles continues to improve and the penetration growth space is broad”. It is expected that the sales penetration of new energy vehicles in China and the world will reach 50%, the sales of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 17.68 million and the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 55 million in 2030
(data source: Minsheng securities)
It should be noted that since 2022 is the last year of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, it will accelerate the release of new energy vehicle demand in 2022, and 2023 will undoubtedly become a growth pressure point.
According to the Research Report of Huachuang securities, it is expected that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto market will further continue the high growth trend in 2021, and the purchase demand will be released in advance in 2023. The sales volume in 2022 is expected to be further boosted, and the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million. In addition, due to the large amount of subsidy decline in 2023, the demand for car purchase will be restrained to a certain extent. However, on the whole, under the wave of increasing new energy penetration, it is expected that new energy passenger vehicles will continue to grow in 2023.
Based on the above, it can be seen that although the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is about to reach the stage of “complete withdrawal”, under the favorable conditions of “double carbon” goal and “double integral” policy, the development wave of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles still belongs to the general trend, and the development space of the industry can be expected.
In this context, it is a good choice for investors to choose the opportunity and timing to layout the field of new energy vehicles.
Among them, Wanlian Securities said that the automobile industry is in the midst of industrial transformation, in which new energy for automatic driving is expected to become the main theme. It is expected that the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is expected to accelerate in 2022. It is suggested to focus on suppliers of intelligent core parts such as intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) also pointed out that with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of auto enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts enterprises. The fixed zero relationship in the past is expected to be broken, and the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, At the same time, the acceleration of electric intelligence has spawned a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends. We are optimistic about the rise of domestic and electric intelligence. We recommend paying attention to four sub areas: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, cockpit intelligence and localization of passenger car seats.
