According to the China stock market news choice terminal, at the close of February 16, the main contract of soda ash futures rose 2.36% to close at 2912 yuan per ton. Since this year, the price of soda ash futures has risen continuously, and there has been a temporary correction recently. Some experts said that the production capacity of soda ash is limited and the demand for downstream building materials is weak, but the demand of photovoltaic, electronics, pharmaceutical glass and other industries is strong. The new production capacity determined this year is limited to a few listed companies such as Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . It is expected that the follow-up soda ash will maintain a strong trend, which is good for the performance of listed companies with related businesses.
the sharp rise callback does not change the strong expectation of the whole year
Since this year, the main contract of soda ash futures has gone out of a round of rising market, rising from the lowest point of 2160 yuan / ton to the highest point of 3177 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of 47.08%. Since then, the main contract of soda ash futures has been temporarily corrected, once falling to 2778 yuan / ton, a decrease of 12.56%, but it quickly rebounded to 2912 yuan / ton. Can the subsequent market of soda ash futures remain strong? The spot market may give the answer.
On February 16, the business agency released the spot price of soda ash. Yiyang commercial soda ash quoted 2650 yuan / ton, and Shandong Kejin chemical soda ash quoted about 2550 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was mainly through negotiation, and the shipment of the enterprise was acceptable; At present, the sentiment of China’s soda ash market is strong, but the downstream procurement is cautious. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market is stable and strong.
A futures industry analyst introduced China’s soda ash supply and demand pattern to reporters, “The annual production capacity of soda ash in China is about 33 million tons, and the output in 2021 is 29.13 million tons. The capacity utilization rate is relatively full, and the prices of natural gas and thermal coal are at a high level, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of soda ash. At present, the slowdown of housing delivery rate is indeed not conducive to the demand of downstream industries such as building materials and glass, but China’s new infrastructure policy is implemented, and a new deal may be seen in the next few months The pulling effect of the policy. There is a strong demand for photovoltaic glass, electronic glass, medicinal glass and glass fiber. The demand for soda ash, the main raw material, is bullish, which is conducive to the increase of soda ash price. Previously, there were rumors that a real estate enterprise defaulted on its debt, which had a certain impact on investors’ expectations. Now the rumor has been falsified, which has a certain soothing effect on market sentiment. The strength of the main contract of soda ash futures again belongs to a high probability event. “
He also said, “It is expected that the new capacity of soda ash will be very limited in the future. Especially in 2022, China has only determined that there are only a few new soda ash projects, including Anhui hongsifang project, Hunan salt chemical technology transformation project and Jiangsu Debang relocation project, Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) The new 7.8 million T / a natural alkali project of Yingen mining, a subsidiary, needs to be completed successively from the end of 2022 to the end of 2025, which belongs to the prospective new capacity. From the perspective of new capacity supply, it is difficult for soda ash prices to decline significantly in the short term. “
new limited demand is booming and the market looks higher in the future
On February 14, the reporter visited Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) Xiangheng salt mining area, which is preparing to build a 1 million ton soda ash production capacity expansion project. Liu Xingzhong, leader of Hunan Light Industry salt industry group Hengjian project team and Deputy Secretary of Xiangheng salt chemical Party committee, introduced the progress of the project. The 1 million ton soda ash production capacity expansion project is undergoing preliminary work in terms of land reserve and process optimization, and it is planned to start construction before September. This year, Hunan light salt group plans to invest 6.55 billion yuan to promote this project. After the completion of the project, it will fill the gap in Hunan Hengyang soda ash industry, transform Hengyang’s rich brine resources into industrial advantages, and drive the development of more than 100 upstream and downstream enterprises such as Yuhua Chemical and Hailian brine. “The salt cavern left after salt mining is a sealed storage of natural oil and natural gas. With stable geological conditions, undeveloped faults and simple structure, it is an ideal choice for low-cost hydrogen, carbon, oil and natural gas storage.”
The staff of Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) also introduced the progress of other soda ash projects, “Hunan Chongqing salinization has gone through relevant procedures, Snowsky Salt Industry Group Co.Ltd(600929) It has legally and directly held 100% equity of Xiangyu Yanhua. At present, the production and operation of salt chemicals in Hunan and Chongqing is stable and good. The output of 1 million tons of various salt products and the output of soda ash and ammonium chloride can reach about 700000 tons. The price level of the whole year has increased steadily from the trough, which is expected to bring good benefits. Benefiting from the development of photovoltaic industry, it is expected that the demand for soda ash will continue in the next two years, and we are optimistic about the benefits brought by soda ash industry. Downstream enterprises have built new photovoltaic glass plants in Wanzhou, and it is expected that the demand for soda ash from Hunan and Chongqing salinization will increase. The technological upgrading and transformation project is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2022, and it is expected to form an annual capacity of about 1 million tons of soda ash in 2023. “
In addition, Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) is currently the only enterprise in China that uses natural alkali to produce soda ash, with an equity production capacity of 2.34 million tons of natural alkali. Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) announced that it plans to hold Yingen mining through acquisition and capital increase. Yingen mining has a large-scale natural alkali mine, and will build 7.8 million T / a soda ash and 800000 T / a baking soda projects, including phase I production capacity of 3.4 million T / a soda ash and 300000 t / a baking soda; The capacity of phase II is 4.4 million tons / year of soda ash and 500000 tons / year of baking soda. Phase I is expected to be completed by the end of 2022 and put into trial production in the first half of 2023. After the two phases are fully completed, the complete cost of single ton natural alkali of Yingen mining is expected to reach 556 yuan / ton, which has obvious advantages over the current soda futures and spot.
Open source securities analyst Jin Yiteng holds a positive view of Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) and gives a buy rating, “With the intensive production of photovoltaic glass, there is great potential for new production capacity of natural alkali in the future. According to the data of China photovoltaic Association, under optimistic conditions, it is estimated that the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic from 2022 to 2025 will be 225gw, 270gw, 300gw and 330gw respectively, and the demand for soda ash driven by the demand for new photovoltaic glass is expected to reach 3.29 million tons, 3.84 million tons, 4.24 million tons and 4.67 million tons respectively The demand for photovoltaic glass is growing rapidly, and the new demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to consume the new natural alkali production capacity. “
