In the first week after the Spring Festival, the real estate sector continued to outperform the market: in the first week after the Spring Festival, the market rose by 0.82%, construction, steel and nonferrous metals rose ahead, and the electrical equipment sector experienced a significant adjustment. The real estate sector rose by 4%, ranking 12th among 28 industries. Since November last year, the trend of the sector and the market has differentiated, showing obvious relative gains. In terms of sector valuation, the PE and Pb valuations of the sector rebounded to 12.83x and 1.01x at the end of this week. One week later, the Pb valuation rebounded to more than 1x again, and the PE valuation rose to the mid-2018 level; The discount rates of PE and Pb relative to all A-Shares are 34% and 43% respectively. If excluding bank shares, the discount rates are 53% and 58% respectively, the discount rate of relative valuation continues to narrow. Among them, the discount rate of PE relative to all A-Shares is basically the same as that at the end of the first quarter of 2019. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of the sector this week were Taihe, Nanshan, Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) etc. Taihe had a large decline in the early stage affected by the liquidity crisis and rebounded this week. Nanshan announced at the beginning of the year that it cut into the new energy track through the fixed increase of China’s nuclear energy technology, Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) predicted that the performance would turn around; The top five declines include st Zhongfang, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Tieling Newcity Investment Holding (Group) Limited(000809) , etc. among them, the shareholders of St Zhongfang reduce their holdings and continue to suffer losses in the forecast, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) turn loss in the performance forecast, Tieling Newcity Investment Holding (Group) Limited(000809) expand loss in the forecast, and Lander Sports Development Co.Ltd(000558) reduce their holdings and expand loss in the performance forecast. In “steady growth”
In the background, the main companies this week mainly rose. Except Taihe, Shimao system and rongchuang, which had a large decline due to the negative news of funds in the early stage, rose higher this week, while Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Rongsheng and China Resources Vientiane life fell slightly.
Indemnificatory rental housing loans are not included in the concentration management, and it is reported that the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued: 1) indemnificatory rental housing loans are not included in the concentration management: it is clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and banking financial institutions are encouraged to comply with laws and regulations, with controllable risks Based on the principle of commercial sustainability, increase support for the development of affordable rental housing. 2) It is reported that the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued: the reporter learned from many parties that the national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been formulated and issued recently. It is understood that the management measures make it clear that the pre-sale capital quota supervision is “key quota supervision”.
The amount of funds required for the completion of the project can be ensured by the municipal and county-level urban and rural construction departments according to the project cost contract. When the funds in the account reach the regulatory limit, the funds exceeding the limit can be withdrawn and used freely by the real estate enterprises.
Maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market”: in terms of fundamentals, the key real estate enterprises released the sales data in January, which continued to decline sharply month on month. Compared with 19 years, the sales of most real estate enterprises also decreased, and only rongchuang, zhaosnake and Jindi performed better than the same period in 19 years. There are many recent news on the policy side. 1) the development loan warmed up in January, and the housing loan interest rate generally fell. 2) the indemnificatory rental housing loan was not included in the concentration management. It is said that the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing were issued. 3) the Daya Bay rescue policy was solicited for opinions, and Fuzhou adjusted the down payment ratio of provident fund. Recently, the industry’s “steady growth” policy has been continuously introduced and significantly strengthened, benefiting from the positive signals continuously released by the policy, the expectation of steady growth and the changes of market style. We maintain the recommendation, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to be repaired. In terms of individual stocks, we recommend 1) high-quality leaders and some private enterprises, such as Vanke, poly, CNOOC (not covered), zhaosnake (not covered), China Resources (not covered), etc, 2) Property related companies include country garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service and China Resources Vientiane life.
Risk tips: the epidemic development exceeded expectations, the regulation and credit policies exceeded expectations, the introduction of real estate tax exceeded expectations, and the sales recovery was less than expected.
