Under the influence and resonance of the sharp premium rise in the overseas market, the continuous net outflow of funds from the north of RMB 1.623 billion, the rush up and fall of various “Mao shares”, the accelerated risk clearing of local theme concept stocks, and the reproduction of the influence and resonance of “general rise + sharp rise + sharp rise” in most industry segment indexes, the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai give the shock line of rush up and fall, volatility or digest the pressure of moving average, or make up the gap, It shows that the long and short differences under the stock game are still large.
From the perspective of Shanghai stock index, the attack positive line of opening high and walking high failed to break through the 3480 point 20 day line. With the shrinking trading volume and the weak operation of MACD index, it is expected that covering the continuous gap will be a high probability event; When the gem index was blocked, the 10 day line opened high and went low, and the volatility was amplified with the trading volume. In the brewing golden fork structure of MACD, it was clear that even the second bottom was just to cover the regional gap of 2670 points; Combined with the contraction consolidation of Shenzhen Composite Index breaking through the 5 and 10 day line, the contraction of Kechuang 50 index is high, open low, go to the negative line or double bottom, it is expected that the fierce competition and game between long and short in the bottom building stage of C wave is in line with common sense and historical laws.
In terms of Pankou, decorative gardens, industrial machines, water conservancy construction, pest control, prefabricated buildings, rare earth permanent magnets, shipping, garbage classification, automobile disassembly, seed industry, public transportation, general machinery, steel and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow and average volatility of more than 2%, forming a strong positive long guidance and drive for the three indexes. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 90 stocks rose by more than 9%, 244 stocks rose by more than 5%, 692 stocks rose by more than 3%, 2 stocks fell by more than 9%, 28 stocks fell by more than 5% and 102 stocks fell by more than 3%, so as to maintain the judgment view that the long risk appetite in the secondary market has obviously warmed up. It is suggested that investors seize the opportunity of low absorption in the bottom grinding stage, It is better to select the subdivided leading companies with good performance growth, low position and no significant premium speculation in the history of the core track, and carry out strategic bargain hunting layout operation. The opportunity should outweigh the risk.
In terms of news, the national top-level design emphasizes strengthening legislation in important areas such as national security, accelerating the pace of legislation in areas such as the digital economy, and striving to improve the legal system urgently needed for national governance and meeting the people’s growing needs for a better life; Adhere to the overall promotion of the rule of law in China and the rule of law concerning foreign affairs, strengthen legislation in the field of foreign affairs, further improve the laws and regulations on anti sanctions, anti-interference and anti long arm jurisdiction, and promote the construction of the legal system of extraterritorial application of Chinese law.
The executive meeting of the State Council stressed that in the face of the complex situation outside China, we should attach great importance to solving the constraints in economic operation, continue to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, ensure food and energy security, support coal and power enterprises to make more efforts, make preparations for policies to further help enterprises alleviate difficulties, and enhance the driving force of economic development; Strengthen financial services, increase inclusive small and micro loans and medium and long-term loans for manufacturing industry, and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs; We will strengthen and supplement the manufacturing chain, speed up the construction of new infrastructure and expand effective investment; For catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport and other industries with special difficulties, we will increase phased tax relief, partial social security fee deferment and other support.
The national development and Reform Commission agreed to start the construction of national hub nodes of the national integrated computing network in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Dawan District, Chengdu and Chongqing, the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, develop clusters of high-density, energy-efficient and low-carbon data centers, improve the quality of data supply, optimize the Internet between the East and the West and the direct network between hub nodes, and cooperate through cloud Cloud edge collaboration optimizes the supply structure of the data center, expands the space for computing power growth, and realizes the coordination and sustainability of large-scale computing power deployment and land, energy, water, electricity and other resources.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued the special plan for the development of aviation logistics in the 14th five year plan. By 2025, a safe, intelligent, efficient and green aviation logistics system will be preliminarily established. The aviation logistics support capacity will be significantly enhanced, the cost reduction and efficiency increase results will be remarkable, the independent and controllable ability of the system will be greatly improved, and the aviation logistics will have a great impact on high-end manufacturing, postal express The service capacity of cross-border e-commerce and other industries continued to improve.
The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued opinions on promoting the high-quality development of pelagic fishery in the 14th five year plan. By 2025, the total output of pelagic fishery will be stable at about 2.3 million tons, further improve the level of mechanization, informatization and intelligence of equipment, significantly improve the overall quality and production efficiency of pelagic fishery enterprises, and significantly reduce violations and safety accidents.
Combined with the data of the central bank’s 300 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and the bid winning interest rate of 2.85%, it is expected that under the background of steady growth of “volume increase” and wide credit, it will be conducive to the stable operation of the capital market and complete the construction and consolidation of the phased bottom.
The author believes that Guangdong Province has issued a number of measures to promote the reform and innovation of trade and investment facilitation in Guangdong pilot Free Trade Zone, and supported the construction of electronic components Asia Pacific distribution center, maritime transit hub and departure air transport service center in Qianhai Shekou area; The “14th five year plan for the development of universal medical security in Anhui Province” was printed and distributed. During the “14th five year plan”, the participation rate of basic medical insurance remained above 95%; Zhengzhou issued the notice on Issuing key construction projects in 2022, arranging 446 key construction projects, with a total investment of 885.7 billion yuan and an annual completed investment of 225 billion yuan; Shenzhen issued the implementation plan for Yantian District to create a core area of a global marine central city (2022-2025). By 2025, Yantian District will form a marine industrial cluster with an output value of 100 billion, and the proportion of marine GDP in regional GDP will reach 20%. Such regional economic policies are favorable, which is conducive to better revenue growth and market share improvement of core beneficiary industries and industries. Combined with the innovative development of Tianjin’s Internet of vehicles industry chain, the operating revenue increased by 9.8% year-on-year. The core benefits are expected to be new infrastructure, semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, meta universe, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV The industrial Internet, new energy and other sectors will return to the upward trend of probability events. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. Zhang Cuixia’s qualification certificate: a0680620080009)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-2-16)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-2-16)
