In January, the overall demand continued to recover. The RPK of the three major airlines’ China lines was + 7.3% year-on-year, while the international lines still decreased year-on-year, and the regional routes increased significantly year-on-year: in January, the total RPK of the three major airlines was + 7.3% (December 2021 – 35.7%), and the total ask was + 10.0% (December 2021 – 29.2%); Compared with 2019, the three major airlines rpk-59.0% (December 2021 – 62.5%) and ask-45.1% (December 2021 – 52.0%). In terms of regions, RPK and ask of Chinese routes increased year-on-year, and the total RPK and ask of the three major airlines increased by + 7.9% and + 11.7% year-on-year respectively (December 2021 – 36.4% and – 29.6% respectively); International routes have not yet ushered in an inflection point, and the supply and demand continue to decline year-on-year. The total RPK and ask of the three airlines are – 28.2% and – 33.4% respectively year-on-year; Regional routes rebounded significantly, with the total RPK and ask of the three airlines + 96.3% and 53.1% respectively year-on-year (December 2021 + 14.4% and + 16.1% respectively). In January, the industry was affected by the epidemic in many places in China. At the same time, the passenger flow increased during the Spring Festival transportation, and the demand for Chinese routes increased slightly year-on-year; Due to the impact of Omicron epidemic, the number of international flights increased, and the demand for international lines continued to decline in January.
Affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, the airlines showed differentiation, and China Southern Airlines and spring and autumn were relatively bright: in January, due to sporadic cases in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places, the growth rate between airlines showed significant differentiation. Among the three major airlines, the RPK growth rate of China Southern Airlines reached 17.29%, and the passenger seat rate was 62.99%, which were higher than that of Air China and China Eastern Airlines. Jixiang RPK decreased by – 10.38% year-on-year (from – 34.16% in December 2021), with a year-on-year increase of 27.17% in spring and autumn. In terms of passenger seat rate, spring and autumn led the industry with 70.81% and achieved year-on-year improvement. The passenger seat rate of the three major airlines and auspicious Airlines decreased year-on-year.
The air passenger flow of 2022 Spring Festival transportation has improved significantly year-on-year and recovered to more than 50% before the epidemic: 29 days before this year’s Spring Festival transportation (1.17-2.14), civil aviation across the country is expected to send 26.94 million passengers, up from – 49.1% in 2019 and + 32.5% in 2021. The year-on-year improvement is significant and recovered to more than 50% compared with that before the epidemic. Under the one size fits all ban on the local Chinese new year, the air travel of Spring Festival transportation in 2022 has significantly improved year-on-year. However, there is still a big gap compared with that before the epidemic when the epidemic is still spreading all over the country and the international line remains at a very low level.
There is an inflection point in the overseas epidemic, and the virus shows the trend of “influenza”. Recently, many countries around the world have gradually relaxed prevention and control policies: the overseas epidemic has eased since the end of January, and the number of newly confirmed cases per day has gradually decreased compared with the high level on January 26. Because the transmission capacity of Omicron is greatly enhanced, but the mortality and severe rate are lower than Delta. After experiencing a new round of epidemic peak, overseas countries are gradually adjusting covid-19 epidemic prevention policies. Japan, South Korea and more and more European and American countries begin to adjust epidemic prevention restrictions to reduce the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the economy.
Investment suggestion: on the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic has basically passed, the epidemic situation in China has been dynamically cleared, and the overseas epidemic has ushered in an inflection point. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth rate of transport capacity. The low growth rate of supply in the medium term has high certainty.
In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn has led to the reduction of residents’ tourism consumption and public and business travel; China’s epidemic continues to repeat, and the international epidemic control time exceeds expectations, resulting in the recovery progress of air passenger flow lower than expected; Geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in international oil prices; The risk of substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
