Looking forward to 2022, under the steady growth policy, the credit will be extended gradually, and under the fiscal policy, the growth rate of infrastructure will pick up, so as to ensure that real estate and real estate relax and stabilize the expectation of real estate investment. The financial data in January 2022 also preliminarily verified the arrival of broad credit. The valuation of the building materials sector has fallen to a reasonable low. We believe that there are investment opportunities for both cyclical building materials and growth building materials.
Looking back on the real estate cycle since 2010, the valuation of the building materials sector resonates with the real estate sector. The "bottom of real estate policy" is generally the "bottom of building materials valuation". The first wave of opportunities comes from the strengthening steady growth policy and the improvement of financial data in the economic downturn. The second wave of opportunities will be reflected in the differentiated stock market, and the signal is the improvement of key elements of the company's profitability. For example, the higher than expected rise of product prices and the inflection point of delivery growth of decoration and building materials companies.
In terms of bulk building materials, based on the extension of peak staggering and the strengthening of industry self-discipline, we calculate that the supply capacity of the industry after excluding peak staggering will decrease by 0.1% year-on-year in 2022. With the support of stable investment on demand, the cement boom can still maintain a high level, and the peak season has a certain price elasticity. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 9% in 2021 makes the current valuation of 6 ~ 7 times P / E ratio have room to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain, and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) benefiting from the integration of northern market and great business elasticity in the medium and long term.
In terms of consumer building materials, previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the sector as a whole is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantage or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right. Focus on Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , followed by China Liansu, ad shares, Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) .
Risk warning: risks of repeated macro policies, unexpected increase in industry supply and sharp fluctuation in raw material prices; The risk that the production capacity is lower than expected and the industry competition intensifies; The downstream demand and product price are lower than expected, the risk of the impact of shipping obstruction on the export business, and the risk of the deterioration of the global economy than expected.
