2021q4 production and operation of lithium concentrate in Australia
In 2021q4, five mines in Australia, MT cattlin, MT Marion, MT greenbushes, MT pilgangoora and MT ngungaju (formerly Altura), are in production. Among them, mtngungaju has only the roughing section put into operation in early October, and the flotation section is expected to be put into operation at the end of 2022q1. It has produced and sold 3612 tons of coarse concentrate in Q4. The five mines produced a total of 496300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2021q4, a decrease of 5.05% month on month. On the one hand, affected by the labor shortage under the epidemic in Australia, on the other hand, the mining recovery rate of re production projects is lower than expected. Five mines in 2021q4 sold 515700 tons of lithium concentrate in total, with a month on month decrease of 0.87%. Here, assuming that the quarterly output of greenbushes is equal to the quarterly sales volume, the delay of lithium concentrate delivery under Q4 epidemic can not be seen here. If we only look at the two mines selling lithium concentrate, cattlin and pillangoora, the total sales volume of Q4 is 116800 tons, a decrease of 35.56% month on month. Both companies said that the epidemic has led to the delay of delivery, which is bound to affect the acquisition of raw materials and production and operation of Q4, their Chinese underwriting customers.
Progress of 2021q4 of the remaining two lithium ore projects in Australia, MT wodgina and MT bald The restart of wodgina phase I is progressing smoothly. It is expected that the first batch of concentrate will be produced for the first time in April 2022, and Yabao has all the underwriting rights. The second and third production lines are also ready. MRL and Yabao will restart them according to the market demand. It is necessary to ensure that the restart of the production line is appropriate. MT bald is still in the stage of bankruptcy and reorganization. At the final hearing on September 1, 2021, the Supreme Court of Western Australia approved the free transfer of 100% shares of Alita to austroid Corporation, the largest creditor, without paying any fees. Alita still needs to obtain approvals including: 1) confirmation by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASCI) that it has granted relief under section 606 of the companies act, 2) approval for delisting from the Singapore Exchange, and 3) approval by the foreign investment review board (FIRB). On January 28, 2021, in order to obtain more time to meet the above conditions, the contract administrator and austroid Corporation agreed to extend the completion time to January 31, 2023.
Production and operation of lithium concentrate in Australia in 2021
In 2021, four mines in Australia contributed to the main output, producing 1.9339 million tons of lithium concentrate (MT ngungaju Q4 production and sales are ignored), an increase of 32.07% and 486000 tons of lithium concentrate compared with the total output of Australian concentrate in 2020; If the total output of four mines in 2020 is compared alone, it will increase by 594000 tons year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 44.46%. In 2021, the four mines sold a total of 1.9912 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 35.46% compared with the total sales of concentrate in Australia in 2020, an increase of 521000 tons; If we compare the total sales volume of four mines in 2020, it will increase by 671000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 50.93%. Although the production / sales volume of 100000-150000 tons contributed by MT ngungaju was reduced in 2021, the three mines brought a total of 640000 tons of new production due to the improvement of capacity utilization of MT Catlin and MT pilgangoora, the increase of production of MT greenbushes and the resumption of production of cgp2 concentrator, which was the main contributor to the growth of lithium concentrate production in Australia in 2021.
Prospect of lithium concentrate production and operation in Australia in 2022
It is expected that MT ngungaju and MT wodgina will start to contribute production in 2022. Although the reconstruction and expansion of MT pilgrimoora and the restart of MT ngungaju are delayed, pls is expected to further revise the production plan guidelines while announcing the semi annual results in late February. However, because the greenbushes tailings reprocessing plant is put into operation in 2022, the beneficiation recovery rate of greenbushes cgp1 (chemical grade concentrator 1) is expected to return to normal after Q1, the beneficiation recovery improvement project of greenbushes cgp2 is expected to start commissioning in 2022q1, the production increase plan of Marion mine phase I is expected to be completed from August to September, and wodgina phase I is expected to produce the first batch of concentrate for the first time in April 2022, Under the positive impact of the reconstruction, expansion and resumption of production of the above three mines, it is expected to completely hedge the impact of the lower repair output of PLS company. We expect that in 2022, six mines in Australia will produce a total of 2.59 million tons of concentrate, with a year-on-year increase of 660000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33.93%, which will still become the main incremental source of global lithium resource supply in 2022.
Pricing of lithium concentrate in Australia in 2021 and its prospect in 2022
The long-term cooperative price of MT cattlin’s lithium concentrate in 2021 is USD 386 / 560 / 796 / 1595 / ton respectively, and the long-term cooperative price of MT pilgrimoora’s lithium concentrate in 2021 is USD 489 / 664 / 875 / 1800 / ton respectively. The long-term cooperative price of MT Marion 2021q3 / Q4 lithium concentrate is 740.6/1153 US dollars / ton, and the long-term cooperative price of MT greenbushes 2021h2 lithium concentrate is 592 US dollars / ton. In 2022q1, the long-term cooperative price of MT cattlin has reached US $2500 / ton CIF (6.0%), and the long-term cooperative price guideline of Pilbara is US $2600-3000 / ton. MT Marion has not announced its guideline price yet. MT greenbushes 2022h1 is priced at US $1770 / ton, which is significantly higher than 2021q4. Pls, the pricing leader of lithium concentrate in Australia, said at the fourth quarter telephone conference that if lithium salt is traded at US $60000 or more, after deducting value-added tax and chemical conversion costs, about US $50000 can be used for raw materials. The profits of the industrial chain will continue to move upward in 2022, and the pricing of spodumene will be very strong.
Investment advice
The epidemic and labor shortage affected the concentrate supply. The concentrate output of Australian mining enterprises in 2021q4 fell month on month, and pls also lowered the annual output guidelines for 2022. However, under the positive impact of the reconstruction, expansion and resumption of production of MT greenbushes, MT Marion and MT wodgina3 mines in 2022, it is expected to completely hedge the impact of the lower repair output of pls. We expect that in 2022, six mines in Australia will produce a total of 2.59 million tons of concentrate, with a year-on-year increase of 660000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33.93%, which will still become the main incremental source of global lithium resource supply in 2022.
However, it is also reminded that more than 80% of the lithium concentrate increment in 2022 comes from mines that only supply their own shareholders, which is quite different from the situation that 54% of the lithium concentrate increment in 2020 comes from export mines, which means that the supply of raw materials for third-party lithium salt processing plants will become more tight in 2022, which will further push up the lithium concentrate pricing of export mines. In addition, Australian enterprises covet the profits of the midstream lithium salt link and accelerate the extension of the industrial chain to the downstream. A typical example of this quarter is that MRL company withdrew the underwriting right of MT Marion concentrate and handed it over to the joint venture partner to produce lithium hydroxide for export.
Investment advice
As the upstream raw material necessary for the vigorous development of electric vehicles for a long time in the future, countries have transferred lithium resources to national strategic resources, which means that overseas acquisitions will be affected not only by previous geopolitics, but also by countries’ concerns about future industrial development. Overseas lithium resource acquisitions will become more difficult than before, At the same time, it also affects the release rate of global medium and short-term lithium resource production. Lithium salt prices may remain at a high level for at least two years in order to stimulate and accelerate the process of global resource development. As of February 15, 2022, the price of electric carbon has risen to 410000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of Q1 will continue to rise until the lithium carbonate at the end of Q2 Salt Lake returns to normal capacity utilization. Integrated enterprises with guaranteed upstream resources and incremental resources will enjoy the profit elasticity under the high price of lithium salt in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the ongoing Lijiagou spodumene mining and beneficiation project. In the future, it will join hands with Dongchuan energy investment to integrate and develop the [ Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ] of lithium resources in Ganzi and ABA. The beneficiary targets include [ Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ] that the greenbushes mine has been increasing production in the next five years and can achieve large-scale output through OEM. It is promoting the [ Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ] of yuanyangba 2.5 million T / a lithium ore beneficiation project, It is estimated that [ Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ] will be completed by the middle of 2022, and [ Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ] will have a good performance of potassium fertilizer and lithium salt in 2022.
Risk tips
1) the growth rate of global lithium salt demand is lower than expected; 2) Resumption of production and sale of lithium concentrate at wodgina mine in Australia; 3) Lithium concentrate sold from greenbushes, Australia; 4) The commissioning progress of the New South American Salt Lake project exceeded expectations; 5) Global electric vehicle sales are lower than expected; 6) The price of lithium and lithium salt is lower than expected.
