A shares are still rebounding! All the three indexes closed up, with the market turnover reaching 807 billion yuan, most of the industry sectors closed up, and the infrastructure sector set off a rising tide.
institutions believe that the previous fall of heavyweights on the gem is more like the last vent of bears. After the panic, there is a technical rebound,
Big fire!
On February 16, A-Shares continued to rebound and the infrastructure sector broke out. Many stocks such as Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) , Chengdu Road & Bridge Engineering Co.Ltd(002628) , Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , Ningbo Construction Co.Ltd(601789) rose by the limit. Among them, Longtou Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) closed 7 daily limit boards and Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) two consecutive boards in recent 8 trading days. Benefiting from the labor tide after the festival and the expectation of steady growth, Daji construction has gradually become the main line of market investment, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.
Following yesterday’s market rebound, track stocks rose and fell. In the afternoon, the rise of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) decreased, which narrowed the rise of the gem index, and the track stocks such as cro, wind power and semiconductor fell simultaneously. The growth rate of performance in the first quarter of this year may affect the rising space of track stocks.
In addition, analysts believe that the CPI probability will show a trend of “low in the front and high in the rear” in the future, with a moderate increase in the whole year; The change trend of PPI is just the opposite, showing a trend of “high before low after”. The upward risk of CPI in the second half of the year can not be ignored. The upward risk will limit the space for the central bank to loosen monetary policy and have a negative impact on China’s stock market
strong capital construction limit
Today, large infrastructure stocks set off a wave of limit trading, Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) , Hanjia Design Group Co.Ltd(300746) , Hualan Group Co.Ltd(301027) , Chengdu Road & Bridge Engineering Co.Ltd(002628) , Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , Ningbo Construction Co.Ltd(601789) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) and other stocks.
Among them, Longtou Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) closed seven daily limit boards and Hangzhou Landscape Architecture Design Institute Co.Ltd(300649) two consecutive boards in recent eight trading days.
On the news side, recently, the executive meeting of the State Council stressed that we should speed up the construction of new infrastructure and expand effective investment.
In fact, under the background of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, in mid December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.46 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2022 to all localities in advance.
After the Spring Festival holiday, the centralized commencement ceremony of provincial key construction projects has been held in Hubei Province, Fujian Province, Shaanxi Province and other places.
Recently, driven by the investment logic of steady growth, Daji construction has gradually become the main line of the market.
Guo Shiliang, an independent financial commentator, believed in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that the infrastructure sector benefited from the labor tide after the festival and the expectation of steady growth, but whether the rebound is sustainable remains to be seen. The speculation on infrastructure construction at the beginning of the year is more likely to be reflected in the expected factors, and the expectation of steady growth has become the catalyst for some capital speculation.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that it is expected that the issuance of new special bonds in the first quarter will be more than 1 trillion. After considering the balance of special bonds last year and the constraints of urban investment and financing, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of this year will be more than 5%, and it is expected to reach 10% in an optimistic situation. The infrastructure industry chain may usher in extreme changes in the basic area. At present, the overall sector is undervalued and low allocation
track stocks rose and fell
In the afternoon, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell, driving the growth of gem index to narrow, and cro, wind power, semiconductor and other track stocks fell simultaneously.
“The valuation of track stocks is on the high side. Market funds may think that the valuation of track stocks is not cheap. The stock price has overdrawn the profit growth rate. The growth rate of performance in the first quarter of this year will affect the rising space of track stocks.” Guo Shiliang said.
He further analyzed that track stocks are also related to global monetary liquidity factors. Once the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates heats up, the risk appetite of the global market will also change. whether the monetary policy will be loose in the future will also directly affect the valuation and pricing level of track stocks. At present, after the short-term rapid adjustment, there is a demand for technical rebound, but the shock pattern has not changed substantially.
at the same time, the track stocks generally callback after the festival, and the fund is facing redemption pressure. The recent ups and downs rebound may alleviate some redemption pressure.
On the whole, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by nearly 20% last week, rebounded by 10% in three trading days this week, and the highest increase in Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) 3 days of cro leader was 21%
PPI or “high in front and low in rear”
On February 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data that showed that in January, the CPI of the national consumer price index rose by 0.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month. In terms of industrial producer price index PPI, the prices of coal, steel and other industries fell, driving the overall decline of industrial product prices. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 9.1%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Xu Yang, chief economist of Hong Kong Zhongrui fund, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news, “in view of the current sharp rise in commodities and the resonance of lard, the upward risk of CPI in the second half of the year can not be ignored. The upward CPI will certainly limit the space for the central bank to loosen monetary policy and have a negative impact on China’s stock market.”
Xu Yang further analyzed that, on the one hand, the rise of CPI will increase residents’ consumption costs, thus hitting or weakening residents’ consumption confidence, which will also make household investment more cautious and rational.
on the other hand, the rise of PPI will increase the purchase cost of enterprises. On the premise that the rise of raw material prices cannot be effectively passed on to consumers, it will be common for enterprises to reduce profits or even losses. For listed companies, the company’s profits are reduced, the performance is significantly reduced, and the return to shareholders is also reduced. when the investment value of listed companies decreases, the focus of stock price will naturally move downward; Lower investment return expectations will weaken investor confidence and the popularity of the stock market may be lax.
At the same time, some institutional investment advisers believe that China’s CPI is currently at a low level, and there is room for monetary policy adjustment. Loose expectations may help to improve the valuation of technology stocks.
Wu chaoming, chief economist of Caixin securities, predicted in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that the CPI probability will show a trend of “low before high” in the future, with a moderate increase in the whole year; The change trend of PPI is just the opposite, showing a trend of “high before low after”.
“The epidemic situation is still an important variable affecting the future price trend.” According to Wu chaoming’s analysis, first, the evolution of the epidemic affects the process of economic recovery, has a great impact on the prices of services and middle and downstream industries, and determines the rising slope of CPI; Second, the epidemic has an impact on the stability of the global supply chain, affecting whether the global demand can smoothly shift from goods to services, reducing the increase of commodity prices, and directly determining the decline slope of PPI
the Shanghai index closed up slightly
Today, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated throughout the day, and the Shanghai index closed up 0.57% to close at 3465.83 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.23% to close at 13376.36 points; The gem index rose 0.07% to close at 2818.40.
The market turnover reached 807 billion yuan, most of the industry sectors closed up, and the infrastructure sector set off a rising tide. The decoration, cement building materials and chemical fertilizer industries led the rise, while the precious metal industry led the decline.
According to Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , the previous compensatory decline of heavyweights on the gem is more like the last catharsis of bears. After the panic, there was a technical rebound. however, it still needs to be noted that the market’s volume energy has not returned to the previous state, and the medium and long-term upward logic remains unchanged, but the market will still face the trend of front row differentiation in the short term, so we need to pay attention to rhythm and other issues.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the undervalued sector is more likely to usher in rising opportunities in the market style adjustment. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with “expected repair” potential, the sectors with defensive through the cycle and the sectors that are expected to have trend opportunities under the boost of the high boom.
